Road To Cheltenham: Sometimes you learn more from losing than winning

At last year’s Dublin Racing Festival, the two Grade One novice hurdles provided the winners of all three Cheltenham Festival equivalents.

Subsequent Supreme winner Slade Steel chased home future Baring Bingham hero Ballyburn in the Brave Inca, whilst soon-to-be Albert Bartlett victor Stellar Story could finish only fourth behind Dancing City in the Golden Cygnet. Though beaten at Cheltenham, that winner would go on to win the Grade One Sefton at Aintree’s Grand National meeting.

In short, these events are consequential - which makes now a good time to take stock of where we stand in this division, including a handful of informative contests over the past few days.

They can resist everything except temptation. Hence nobody believed Team Twiston-Davies when the words “he won’t run between now and the Festival” passed their various lips. And lo, Potters Charm duly pitched up in Cheltenham’s Ais Classic Novices’ Hurdle last Saturday and was beaten by Sixmilebridge.

“We’re prepared to have eggs on our faces,” rider Sam Twiston-Davies had said on the 24 hours earlier, and afterwards the family were ruing changing their minds by having a pop at a Grade Two they had assessed as “very winnable” at declaration stage.

They don’t have any less of a horse after his defeat, however, and his presence immeasurably added to a compelling day’s racing – for reasons good and bad, as it turned out. The fetishisation of an unbeaten record has come to be something of a sickness in Britain, with trainers apparently fearful of bursting any Festival bubble.

Yet that begs the question of whether our domestic horses (particularly the novices) are experienced and battle-hardened enough when facing Irish competitors at Cheltenham in particular?

Due to the smaller race programme in Ireland, trainers have fewer options to run and therefore must often choose a non-ideal option, whether in terms of trip or ground. Consequentially, perhaps, they are less obsessed with maintaining an unbeaten record?

“Ten Cheltenham Festival winners came from the Dublin Racing Festival last year but only three of the ten actually won,” observed Jane Mangan, in her pre-Leopardstown interview with Willie Mullins for Racing TV, which you can watch in full below.

It also logically follows that defensively campaigned British-trained horses will end up running in less appropriate races in greater number because not enough has been learned about them at an early enough stage. Contrastingly, last season’s champion trainer of Britain and Ireland takes a progressive attitude to defeat.

“Ballyburn got beaten by what could be a superstar of the future,” Mullins began, referring in passing to Sir Gino, when invited to discuss two of his significant reverses over Christmas. “And it just looked [like] he’s not a two-mile chaser. And so that was an experiment [from which] it was probably good for us to learn in this part of the season, so now we can aim him at the longer races.

“And then Lossiemouth just fell asleep at the start… she jumped off in Kempton… she ambled away… only because she had in her head what we were teaching her to do for the last two years, which is to steady away… We’d been teaching her to settle and it backfired on us for one race. I hope only one race.”

For Team Twiston-Davies, the learning from Saturday seems to have been that “we didn’t train him for the race specifically”. Potters Charm had been a handful at home when coming back into work after winning Aintree’s Formby Hurdle on Boxing Day, convincing them to up his work rate and then to change their plan.

“Sam said going into the first hurdle he was worried,” William Twiston-Davies has since said. “He didn’t get the feel he got at Aintree, when he was tanking down to the first; he said he was fast asleep. I suppose it’s a lesson learnt, but we’ve got plenty of time now until Cheltenham… We’ll put a line through it, we’re very adamant it wasn’t his true running and you’ll see a different horse at Cheltenham.”

Of course, his conqueror Sixmilebridge is also likely to be a talented horse and Potters Charm had to concede 5lb for his latest Grade One success. It’s also encouraging the runner-up’s jumping is now much more reliable and he’s got the resilience to accompany his ability – up against it from the top of the hill, he only gave best and hung left after the last.

The winner is clearly a strong stayer at the trip, finishing off the race well after a good round of jumping barring a lack of fluency at the fourth and seventh flights. Winning rider Kielan Woods praised his mount’s straightforwardness, noting he had in the past got worked up in the preliminaries – for example, getting in a right state prior to the Festival’s Bumper when trained by Ben Pauling last season and finishing tailed off. Woods also conceded that soft ground might be important to his mount.

Third-placed Bill Joyce was ultimately quite disappointing – travelling strongly on the home turn, seemingly serving it up to the winner, only to fold cheaply moments later. It was a stark contrast to his doughty finish at Sandown last December and he was almost caught by Quebecois and Gamesters Guy up the hill. Both of them will benefit from three miles; the latter in particular shaped well for such a task.

In the early stages of this race, racecourse commentator Ian Bartlett noted that all seven runners had only finished in the first three in their races thus far this season – the first two, if you overlook Bill Joyce’s Grade One third in the Challow. This appeared to be a Grade Two with some depth.

Previously, Potters Charm had emerged from the Boxing Day gloom at Aintree to beat dual previous winner Miami Magic in the Grade One Formby Novices’ Hurdle over two miles. The runner-up went for an ambitious route on Twiston-Davies’s inner before the home turn and was squeezed out as the winner held his line before recovering to harry him all the way to the line. He’ll get further.

Eventual third Good And Clever was permitted to lose touch with the field in the back straight – albeit the poor visibility means there’s a possibility it was just not evident he was at maximum revs. He was properly detached by the fourth last, but rallied strongly from the home turn.

Was he was flattered to finish off his race so well or given too much to do? We’ll certainly discover more if he lines up in Sunday’s Tattersalls Ireland Brave Inca Novice Hurdle – he would be a rare British runner at the DRF.

Back at Aintree, seemingly impressive Cheltenham winner Country Mile – patiently ridden as he was in December – was beaten here as far as his name suggests. Three-time winner Roadlesstravelled was also disappointing – taken on for the lead and dropping away from after three out.

Whereas one dual winner, Junker D’Allier, was pulled up – either outclassed or amiss – another, Celtic Dino, folded entering the straight after racing prominently. The latter could clash with Rossington Main runner-up Cloonainra at Musselburgh on Sunday.

That neat-sized Irish raider finished a game second to Dedicated Hero at Haydock, impressing with her jumping technique, but her half-length proximity flatters her a tad. The winner not only slipped briefly when bumped along on the home turn but had to reverse-ferret from a cul-de-sac on the rail on the approach to two out.

His way had been blocked by keen-going odds-on favourite Royal Infantry, who was tending to shift left throughout but this was deliberate and legitimate from pilot Harry Skelton. It did them no good, however, as he lacked as much fluency at the flight as he had largely displayed previously and weakened.

Larger-scale long-time leader Peacenik kept going admirably against the rail, however. Having still looked a shade raw in front, he found plenty under pressure in the straight until negotiating the last least well of the trio. Having earlier been switched behind and around the principals, Dedicated Hero had found his stride by the final flight and saw off Cloonainra despite rider Ryan Mania dropping his whip.

Dedicated Hero is better than this literal form and will benefit either from a more galloping track or step up in trip – or perhaps both.

The Skeltons enjoyed better fortune in the Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury just after Christmas, however, when leading Cheltenham hope The New Lion enhanced his standing with an authoritative display. After racing enthusiastically, he was waited with in the straight before powering away to win this Grade One by almost five lengths.

His rider believes the winner could be effective over two miles in a Supreme on testing ground, but his likeliest target is surely the Turners (Baring Bingham). It’s worth noting that The New Lion – who changed hands from Darren Yates to JP McManus for a considerable sum after this – has never yet encountered anything other than good-to-soft ground.

Runner-up Wendigo took a good step forward here, staying on with conviction, and may yet have something to say in the Albert Bartlett. At the time, I thought third-placed Bill Joyce faded because he did too much too soon, but his tame finish at Cheltenham last Saturday undermined that theory. Regent’s Stroll was a bit too keen and didn’t seem ready for this level at this stage and whilst Electric Mason was ultimately outclassed, he went down fighting. He has since made the most of a straightforward opportunity at Fontwell.

Hopping over to Ireland, at Naas last Sunday Ballybow laid his cards on the table for the Albert Bartlett with an encouraging success in the extended 2m2f maiden hurdle. He’d previously chased home the Henry de Bromhead-trained hurdling debutant Air Of Entitlement at Down Royal on St Stephen’s Day, again shaping like a stayer.

Here, he travelled strongly and was committed after the second last when long-time leader Krak was angled left to regain the inside line, briefly carrying Kalix Delabarrière off the track on his inside. Whilst on the latter Paul Townend was manoeuvring his way back between the spur railing and JJ Slevin’s mount, Sam Ewing and the winner had got first run.

This detail surely made no difference to the result, as Ballybow came right away in tiringly soft ground to win by nine lengths. He won’t have had enough starts over hurdles for handicaps to be an option at the Festival and is available at 33/1 for a race in which owners Gigginstown House Stud are often multiply represented.

Kalix Delabarriere finished tired after travelling well, turning around his Christmas Leopardstown form with Krak when he lost all chance with a chance-ending blunder three out whilst the latter stayed on from further back in the field. They had both then finished behind Kalix Delabarriere’s stablemate Kaid D’Authie – of whom more in a moment.

Krak attempted to cart JJ Slevin through the race, going keenly with his head bowed low and attacking his hurdles with aggression. He frequently adjusted markedly right and has a pounding action, yet this was just his second career start and is already making sharp progress for Stuart Crawford.

Dual Grade One bumper winner A Dream To Share – the horse responsible for kicking off talented amateur John Gleeson’s career with such a bang two seasons ago – was already held when seemingly jumping awkwardly at the second last and stumbling sideways on landing.

Injury apparently caused him to dwell in bumpers last season and he only made it to the track once prior to making his belated hurdling debut in November. This was a retrograde step, jumping scruffily even before this pivotal error.

It’s worth noting that in one of his many post-race interviews at Leopardstown over Christmas, Mullins said he considered both Kaid D’Authie and Kalix Delabarriere to be Grade One candidates. He has since repeatedly noted that the former, who’d tipped up on debut for the yard – is the spitting image of 2024 Triumph Hurdle winner Majborough.

“They have the same size and scope as one another, and Kaid D’Authie has been doing the same kind of stuff at home – he’s been impressing me that much,” he said then. “I was really disappointed when he fell at Navan but today… he looks to be the horse we thought he was all along.”

Part of a septet of Mullins-trained entries in this coming Sunday’s Tattersalls Ireland Brave Inca Novices’ Hurdle, Kaid D’Authie is currently rated second favourite behind stablemate Kopek Des Bordes. That hurdling debutant also won at Leopardstown over Christmas despite being keen, making mistakes, going repeatedly out to his left and frequently landing statically – in short, managing to win despite doing most things wrong.

The form-lines of three of Leopardstown’s festive maidens were brought together at Fairyhouse last Saturday. Kawaboomga (a strongly staying-on second to Kopek Des Bordes over two miles on his Irish debut) accounted for William Munny (previously second to the likeable Workahead over the same trip on Boxing Day, clear of the rest) with Koktail Divin (half-length second to Kaid D’Authie over nearly 2m4f last time out, Krak and Kalix Delabarriere behind) quite a way adrift in third.

This was a mixed-ability field, with the top set of that trio plus Fleetfoot soon separating themselves from the rest until that horse made a mistake three out and began to struggle. Koktail Divin was the next to falter, having raced closest to the enthusiastic leader William Munny until joined for second by Kawaboomga, who’d tracked the pace, at the second last.

The latter pair had it between them from there, with William Munny still looking raw under pressure approaching the last but executing the cleaner jump. However, once he’d landed his skew-whiff leap, Kawaboomga readily wore down his rival, Mark Walsh not even needing to reach for his whip.

Both those horses are improving, with a maiden hurdle surely there for the runner-up’s taking next time out. Meanwhile, Koktail Divin barely got off the (soft) ground at the last, finishing very tired and 22 lengths adrift of the runner-up in a distinct step backwards from his hurdling debut, which came on a sounder surface.

Initially in the third set, eventual sixth God Of Thunder had advanced by the finish and showed a glimmer of ability for this discipline. Now with Denis Hogan, he won twice on the All-weather for Richard Hannon and stayed 12 furlongs but was tending to self-sabotage by racing keenly in the second half of last year. 

Whereas William Munny is only in the Supreme (if indeed he goes to Cheltenham at all – he didn’t as a bumper horse), Kawaboomga is bound for the Turners. “He’s a Cheltenham horse, for me, all the time,” observed Mullins. “I just think he needs a trip. Another half-mile will be right up his street.”

Before I move on, here are some footnotes about that trio of festive Leopardstown maidens referred to above. Racecourse debutant Begorra Man flashed ability when fifth behind Kopek Des Bordes. Redemption Day – winner of Punchestown’s Grade One bumper last May with a wide sweeping move – didn’t look like the most natural hurdler on debut behind Workahead, who heads straight to the Supreme.

The fourth of Leopardstown’s Christmas maidens was won by The Enabler, who narrowly held strongly rallying I Am Lorenzo by a short head over almost 2m4f on the last day of the meeting and provided trainer Gordon Elliott with his 2,000th Irish Jumps winner of his career to date.

The winner is entered in all three novice events at Cheltenham but if he lines up in Sunday’s Listed handicap at the DRF, that will be his fifth hurdles start. It’s likely to be a handicap at the Festival, too; perhaps the Martin Pipe as a nascent chaser. On the other hand, I Am Lorenzo could be headed for Saturday’s Grade One Nathaniel Lacy, in which he’ll be suited by stepping up a couple of furlongs in trip – and further.

At Christmas, he was held in a pocket by right-jumping Bossofthebrownies on the home turn, outpaced and crowded by Port Joulain after the last but responded likeably to pressure from Keith Donohue almost to snatch an unlikely-looking victory. He was in front a stride past the line, and is progressing with each start. He did hold his tail at an uncomfortably high angle here, however.

This was the race in which Argento Boy was a big disappointment, making the running but jumping hesitantly. He was one of a fistful of flops for the Closutton Order over Christmas until they bounced back on New Year’s Day as if nothing had happened. Paul Townend reported his mount was “never travelling” and pulled him up after he’d weakened quickly following his latest mistake two out.

This form was aired over nearly 2m4f at Punchestown on Monday when Port Joulain beat once well-regarded Sermandzarak in a steadily run five-runner event, with a gap back to long-time leader Bossofthebrownies – who looked unsuited to that role – in third.

The winner plainly didn’t enjoy jumping on a right-handed track, going wildly left with his head jabbing in the air as Townend tried to negotiate the flights safely. He probably didn’t need to improve upon his Leopardstown form to win this.

Despite being an awkward ride, he still moved through the race more readily than the runner-up, who received a reminder after the third and made a critical error two out. Hard ridden by Danny Gilligan, Sermandzarak only got going once it was all over and surely needs headgear applied. He was sent off the beaten favourite in his previous two starts, when sixth behind Kaid D’Authie over Christmas (jumping poorly) and when splitting Lawlors Of Naas flops Butch Cassidy and Shuffle The Deck at Punchestown in November.

In the opening race, Karbau had impressed for the Closutton crew – making all, racing enthusiastically and jumping boldly. A winner in bumpers for Emmanuel Clayeux in France, he’d made his debut for the yard behind Shuffle The Deck at Naas when his finishing effort was compromised by his earlier keenness. Here, he kept going and might have booked his ticket to the Supreme or Turners.

Admittedly, none of his closest pursuers jumped that well but they couldn’t get near him. Runner-up Captain Ryan Matt put in a series of awkwardly airy leaps, the winner’s stablemate Zillow (who’d run better behind Kopek Des Bordes at Christmas and probably needs a sounder surface) got the latter flights wrong when it mattered most, and prominent racer Paul Collins adjusted increasingly to his right before folding markedly. Park That was cleaner, so still unable to threaten with no excuses.

Back in fifth, Sticwiththeprocess became outpaced before staying on in the style of a horse who’ll do better over further. Beaten favourite in his sole start in Points, he’d made his debut under Rules behind Joystick at Naas earlier this month – a race that contained some promising types, perhaps primarily for chasing, and plenty of also-rans.

On that same day, the admirably straightforward The Yellow Clay benefitted from a sound pace set by stablemate Wingmen to win the Grade One Lawlor’s Of Naas. He’d previously done well to chase down Fleur In The Park, who’d got first run, at Navan and now heads to the Turners unbeaten. He’s versatile ground-wise.

Runner-up Supersundae – whose name, as a half-brother to triple Grade One winner Supasundae, is an affront to individuality – is a second-season novice who finished seventh in last term’s Supreme. Interestingly, Mullins applies both a first-time hood and tongue-tie in Saturday’s Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Golden Cygnet Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown – clearly concluding that the horse didn’t settle sufficiently at Naas after 243 days off.

For poor-jumping fourth Jasmin De Vaux, the trainer has prescribed an intensive course of schooling and first-time cheekpieces. JJ Slevin has the dubious pleasure of taking the ride on a talented horse whose feet get in the way, whilst Townend partners a horse at the other end of the jumping spectrum – Final Demand, who embraces hurdling with an utterly unafraid technique.

Back at Naas, Butch Cassidy and Shuffle The Deck were big disappointments – the market presaging the former’s flop. Both are worth at least another chance after their first encounter with heavy ground. Nine-year-old Plontier was extensively raced on the Flat on the European mainland and demonstrably needs a sounder surface. Stablemate Spasiba has now shown twice that he’ll be better going right-handed.

Something was bugging Salvator Mundi before the Moscow Flyer at Punchestown last Sunday. His paddock demeanour was off – walking stiffly and throwing his head around. Watching from different parts of the Punchestown parade ring, both Ruby Walsh and I thought his hood had been fitted uncomfortably – as discussed in the tenth show of this series. Put plainly, his ears were sitting like cow horns on his head. Ouch.

That might explain why he didn’t carry himself well in that Grade Two event either, but – as Ruby pointed out on that show – this horse has never jumped that well, whether you’re looking at last year’s Triumph or his Tipperary success in May. Neither Mullins nor Townend believe his jumping is an issue; the evidence of our eyes says different – and more than just the once.

Runner-up Kel Histoire is a smaller-scale model than the other principals and got squeezed out approaching the last prior to rallying to the line. He’s likeable and on the up, whereas the others have flatlined a tad – at this distance, at least. All three of Relieved Of Duties, Sky Lord and (at a lesser level) Artic Lane will surely do better over further.

Poor visibility marred the Grade One Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas but we could see enough to conclude that a more assertive ride suited Romeo Coolio more than getting caught flat-footed in a crawl behind former novice Tounsivator in the Royal Bond.

Left in front when Karniquet all but tripped over the second flight – dragging his hind legs through it, nearly down and out – Sam Ewing had clearly resolved not to make THAT mistake again. (Prudence never pays.) Kicking on early in the straight, they made a smaller-scale Karniquet-like error at the last and were unbalanced, but very quickly recovered.

Stablemate and runner-up Bleu De Vassy – who contests the Brave Inca on Sunday – made a milder error at the same flight and could never quite mount a challenge. Eastern Legend responded well to pressure to hang on for third ahead of Karafon, despite the latter jumping the last better.

Sea Of Sands – whom Townend interestingly cited in our Punchestown show (watch again below, should you feel so inclined) as the Closutton horse he was most disappointed in over Christmas (even though he wasn’t riding him) – made mistakes and was found to be “clinically abnormal” by the racecourse vet. He reopposes Bleu De Vassy in with a first-time hood and tongue-tie reportedly set to be applied.

Others to mention from the Christmas period include Sounds Victorious, a real player at the DRF on Saturday and who beat Come Walk With Me, that pair well clear of the rest, on New Year’s Day at Fairyhouse. It’s also worth clocking hurdling debutant and stable companion More Coko, a ready winner at Tramore that same day, and Kappa Jy Pyke, who won at Punchestown earlier this month but would have had to pull out more but for the sad fall of Don’tstopthemusic at the last. 

Over at Limerick on St Stephen’s Day, The Big Westerner outclassed her opposition in the Lyons Of Limerick Jaguar Land Rover Doran’s Pride Novice Hurdle over almost three miles. Unbeaten in two Rules starts, she shapes like a thorough stayer. Her trainer Henry de Bromhead also had Sommesky win on his second hurdles start, upped in trip to 2m3f, at the same meeting and runs in the Golden Cygnet on Saturday.

A couple of Mullins-trained, well-related mares have also made their marks recently. Aurora Vega is on a steep upward curve judged by her success in the Grade Three Solerina Mares’ Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse last Saturday, accounting for the promising Dream On Baby.

Her trainer indicated he was pleasantly surprised by the result, hitherto favouring the disappointing Baby Kate – who finished a laboured sixth. He nominated the winner’s next target as the Grade One at the same track in early April – a race he’s won seven times in the past 11 years including with Annie Power in 2013 and Jade De Grugy last year.

Stablemate Maughreen, whose dam is a half-sister to 2015 Champion Hurdler Faugheen, is the longstanding ante-post favourite for the Ryanair Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and finally made her debut over timber last Sunday. She jumped well, beating inferior and lesser-leaping rivals, and was further trimmed for that Grade Two target.

She’s far less experienced and has achieved less than polished wide-margin Fairyhouse winner Sixandahalf– race-hardened with experience from the Flat, including third in the Irish Cesarewitch – and the Paul Nicholls-trained Jubilee Alpha, impressive at both Taunton and Windsor (but unproven on undulating tracks).

We’ll also learn more about this division when Kientzheim – the Nicky Henderson-trained Kempton winner on Boxing Day who seemed all about pace – hopefully lines up at Taunton next week. She looks like an Aintree type.

Advised 19/12/24: Majborough at 5/1 with Bet365 for the My Pension Expert Arkle Chase

Advised 02/01/25: Lossiemouth at 7/1 with Bet365 or BetMGM for the Unibet Champion Hurdle

Advised 11/01/25: Corbetts Cross each-way at 25/1 with various for the Randox Grand National

Advised 02/01/25: Gaelic Warrior at 5/1 with Paddy Power for the Queen Mother Champion Chase

Beyond awkward.