Lydia Hislop: My best bets for day one of the Cheltenham Festival

This promises to be one of the classiest and deepest editions for some years – perhaps since Al Ferof beat Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card back in 2011. With that in mind, do remember that if you’re backing each-way, some bookmakers might offer extended places on the morning of the race.

Constitution Hill may have beaten little but his Sandown victories but the clock informs us this was not style over substance. His reputed laidback temperament could prove a key asset during the preliminaries.

Concerns about Douvan’s full-brother, stablemate Jonbon, in this regard have been overstated. He’s maturing with each start and his active pre-race nature has not translated into in-running keenness despite him facing steadily run races. He’ll have learned plenty from being dropped in and overcoming a minor inconvenience three out at Haydock last time, when doing well to win.

Dysart Dynamo might be more likely to bubble over as trainer Willie Mullins has specifically sent him here (and stablemate Sir Gerhard to the Ballymore) because he fears the former’s keenness would not enable him to get home over the longer trip. Paul Townend won’t want to inhibit his mount’s stride sitting in behind horses, so there’s a risk he pulls in front and is vulnerable late.

Stable companion Kilcruit will also seek to go forward, having redeemed himself with a stout performance on times at Punchestown after twice appearing frail under pressure in defeat. A first-time tongue-tie appeared then to resolve what Mullins has hinted could be a wind issue that had gone under the radar. The worry is whether that aid works again under this sterner test.

Mighty Potter has been backed in recent hours, the reasoning perhaps being that the likely well-run race will suit how this improving horse is ridden. He has made mistakes in the past but is palpably maturing with each start.

Whilst I can’t pretend to have a strong view in a race with so many unexposed and credible contenders, the fact that JONBON is available at an each-way price swings it for me. Far from his latest Haydock success being off-putting as other have argued, I see it as beneficial that he has won a race rather than procession.

Jonbon each-way at 5/1 or bigger with various bookmakers* (*take advantage of extended place terms, if offered and you are able)

This will be strongly run, as Magic Daze races as if her tail is on fire and she’s better than the bare form of her third to Concertista last time, when returning sore. The supplemented Gabynako – to whom Gavin Cromwell fits a first-time tongue-tie for this drop back in trip – also likes to get on with it, but his risky low-jumping habit worries me.

Neither Rivière D’Etel nor Saint Sam – second and third behind Blue Lord in the Irish Arkle – will be far away, their trainers having made contrasting headgear calls. Gordon Elliott has removed the hood from the mare, who would surely have won at Leopardstown granted either a clean jump at the last or an interrupted run to the line thereafter. The loss of Rivière D’Etel’s 2lb age allowance since last time bothers me less than her habit of adjusting right.

Willie Mullins has reapplied a hood on Saint Sam, presumably to give Sean O’Keeffe tactical options. He was held up when finishing second in last year’s Boodles Fred Winter and hared off too fast for accurate jumping at Leopardstown. He could well do better.

Blue Lord has jumped well over fences to date and can be ridden with patience suitable to this task. But he’s priced shorter than horses with legitimate claims to improve past him.

Stablemate Haut En Couleurs is very light on experience – this will be just his sixth career start and third over fences, his second having ended with a fall at the third in the Irish Arkle. Yet he was smart enough to finish second in the Triumph on the second occasion he set foot on a racecourse, will enjoy this tight left-handed track, and could yet improve past all his rivals.

But EDWARDSTONE is an accomplished chaser with the technique to hold his position chasing a hot pace and the stamina to press on from wherever Tom Cannon elects to make his move. His lack of experience over downhill fences is a slight concern, albeit his efficient style has looked less dicey with experience.

It’s become trendy to knock his form (usually based on the different discipline of hurdling), however. So, I’m expecting him to drift to a backable price.

I fancied Coeur Sublime for the Arkle but that doesn’t stretch to this Grade One, where he has 14 lengths to find on Rivière D’Etel.

Edwardstone at 7/2 or bigger (needs to drift)

I hadn’t expected Gericault Roque to make the cut for this race, but he’s snuck in at the foot of the weights. Although the presence of Frodon keeps him and five other rivals out of the handicap proper, this novice’s ability to jump at pace in a big field is more important. I was impressed by his application when second in the Warwick Chase behind the judiciously ridden winner.

My other dart at this race is Full Back, who found plenty for pressure on the New Course in January prior to finishing a doughty second to Yala Enki in the Portman Cup last time. I’m going to take the risk that the ground won’t be too quick.

Last year’s Coral Cup third Tea Clipper is another to consider if the operation to correct his breathing enables a performance more akin to his chase-debut success at Kempton than his latest two offerings. If bouncing back from health issues when a below-form fifth at Cheltenham at the end of January, last year’s Albert Bartlett runner-up Oscar Elite could also go well at a bigger price at a track that suits.

Selections:

Back now: Gericault Roque at 12/1 each-way 7 places with BetFred or 6 places with various

Back now: Full Back at 18/1 each-way 6 places with Ladbrokes, Coral, or 16/1 7 places William Hill

Although this renewal has evolved into a contest rather than a coronation, Honeysuckle is still likely to extend her unbeaten record to 15 straight starts. An uncomplicated racing nature is her key asset, enabling Rachael Blackmore to position her to minimise traffic problems and to assert at will, regardless of how the race is run. The mare then tends to settle matters with a sharp injection of pace.

This race should be staged at more of a gallop than last year’s edition, with Not So Sleepy set to go forward this time – provided he doesn’t plant at the start, as he did prior to belatedly jumping off in the Christmas Hurdle. But Paul Townend won’t hang about with Appreciate It, winner of last year’s overly strongly run Supreme, and Jack Kennedy is likely to ride Zanahiyr forward in first-time cheekpieces.

In this context, neither Honeysuckle nor the progressive Teahupoo will be far away either, the latter trying Grade One company for the first time. A well-run race will suit 2020 winner Epatante, whose back problems of last season appear resolved, but she still has nine-and-a-half lengths to find on Honeysuckle.

This is Appreciate It’s first start outside of novice company and it’s a big stage on which to make the grade – his first few hurdles will be crucial – but indications are that all has gone smoothly since the minor setback that saw Willie Mullins switch his campaign from novice-chasing to hurdling.

Tommys Oscar has earned his place in this competition via progressive form in handicaps, which he didn’t need to upgrade to win a Haydock Grade Two last time, but he’s unproven away from flat tracks. Adagioshaped well, returning from a setback, when second to Goshen in the Kingwell last time out and runs well here.

But horses beaten in meritorious circumstances en route to Cheltenham are often underestimated by the market and ZANAHIYR certainly falls into that bracket, having twice chased home Sharjah as well as finishing runner-up to Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time out. An uncharacteristic first-flight error would have unsettled him last time, too. A more positive ride in a well-run race with headgear employed can elicit a career best.

Back now: Zanahiyr each-way ‘without Honeysuckle’ at 9/1 with William Hill or Coral

Already advised by Ruby Walsh on 10/02/22: Appreciate It each-way at 5/1 (ante-post terms)

TELMESOMETHINGGIRL has been trained with this race solely in mind but still emerged as best at the weights when beaten by Royal Kahala at Leopardstown over Christmas. She might even have won had she not found herself disadvantageously positioned in a race that developed into a sprint and got stuck behind and then inside the better-placed but flat-out winner.

Lucky 2020 Triumph Hurdle winner Burning Victory, wearing first-time cheekpieces to aid her jumping, beat Queens Brook at Punchestown last month but the latter shaped ominously well – given Gordon Elliott had warned she’d need the run after a training hold-up. Expect her to lay down the main threat to the favourite.

Stormy Ireland was a fortunate runner-up in this race three years ago and fifth the following year in stronger renewals. Though a shade one-dimensional, she has come back to her best this term and could grab a place. It’s noteworthy that Paul Townend has elected to partner her rather than Echoes In Rain, whom he believes will benefit from a step up in trip despite her keen nature.

Advised 06/01/22: Telmesomethinggirl at 13/2 with bet365

Advised 06/01/22: Burning Victory at 16/1 with Paddy Power

No selection:

It’s possible that a field of just six runners changes its nature from favouring second-season novices, hardened via meritorious performances in open handicaps, to enabling lighter-raced opponents to get involved. Yet even the one-off application of professional riders due to Covid restrictions last year didn’t impact on the result – Galvin was still a typical winner.

His stablemate RUN WILD FRED is cut from similar cloth. Second in the 2021 Irish Grand National, his prominent style of racing is also ideal for this track.

Most of his rivals are likely to improve for stepping up in trip, but none except Braeside have the requisite experience and he doesn’t quite look good enough. Vanillier is a lurker, as one of an elite band of horses smart enough to win the Albert Bartlett from six or fewer past career starts but has so far displayed a tendency sometimes to slam on the brakes when approaching a fence.

Back now: Run Wild Fred at 2/1 or bigger