Let's Talk Racing: is Fact To File a big Gold Cup player?

JOSH: electing just two horses isn’t as easy as it sounds, but I’ve spent hours poring over these lists throughout the summer. One to keep an eye on is Kopek Des Bordes, who’s going hurdling this season. He created quite an impression in a bumper at the Easter Festival, winning comfortably against a field that has since produced some solid winners. What’s interesting is that he hadn’t had the same level of preparation at home as many of Willie Mullins' other bumper horses, yet he still looked top-class. Patrick Mullins has absolute confidence in him, and his performance left a lasting impression.

As for the chasers, I’ve been eagerly anticipating taking on a Betfair Chase since his victory in last year’s Graduation Chase on the same card. It’s a race that should suit him perfectly, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see something truly special from him.

ANDREW: Narrowing down to one hurdler and one chaser is a difficult ask for the season ahead, especially given the uncertainty of plenty of the long-term targets of many. However, I am going to nominate - who is perhaps a novice hurdler for this season that plenty are sleeping on. Trained by Tom Cooper, this horse looked impressive in bumpers last season - winning the opening 4yo bumper of the calendar year at Naas, before backing up with a dominant display at Listed level at Limerick. The form of that race is open to question, but you couldn't help being impressed by the way he powered through the race. I'd be inclined to forgive a slightly below par run in the Grade 1 at . I think he will take high rank in novice hurdles this season. 

As for Chasers, I am really hoping that we might be able to see the return of this season - who was a horse I fell in love with two seasons ago, when impressing throughout his novice hurdle campaign. Despite a slightly below par fourth in the Ballymore on his final start, the form couldn't have worked out better with Impaire Et Passe, and in front of him that day. He missed last season due to injury - but should be back around Christmas time this season to kick start what is hopefully an exciting novice chase campaign.

JOSH: It’s a tough one to call. was given a brilliant ride by Harry Cobden, and both never missed a beat. Dysart Enos, on the other hand, travelled superbly, jumped with plenty of zest, and likely found herself closer to the front than Fergal O’Brien would have planned, as a result. I felt the near-year absence caught up with her in the latter stages, but that’s entirely forgivable.

Now, the connections face an intriguing dilemma: Do they trust that she remains well-handicapped, will improve for the run, and target another big handicap over two miles? Or do they opt for mares-only company and risk missing out on a major prize before March? Given that she’ll likely get off lightly with the handicapper after being beaten, I wouldn’t be surprised if they decide to give her one more chance in something like the old Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot before Christmas. After that, the Yorkshire Rose Mares' Hurdle at could be the perfect next target.

ANDREW: It was hard not to be slightly disappointed with Dysart Enos in the Greatwood Hurdle, as I had hoped and expected her to be well in excess of her mark. However, when cutting the race down - the winner and second are good horses and she did seem to just find that final furlong a little too daunting on her first start for nearly a full year. I would expect her to strip markedly fitter for that run.

I really hope they persist in big field handicaps for the time being, as it would be remiss of connections to not cash in on what is still a workable mark, and the way she travels and jumps does suit the hurly, burly nature that these races can often be. There is a lucrative handicap hurdle at Ascot the weekend before Christmas which could suit, although she does slightly jump to her left, which could inconvenience around that track. I personally feel a Betfair Hurdle would be right up her street, but only time will tell!

JOSH: Haha, I quite like this one! Anyone who watched the November Meeting review on the Let’s Talk Racing channel will know we didn’t exactly shower Jonbon’s win in the Shloer with praise. I get that it wasn’t ideal for him to make all under Nico de Boinville, but I still think he should have been beating an ageing and a clearly inferior more comfortably if we’re genuinely going to crown him the standout contender for the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Yes, of course, he’ll improve for the run, and yes, he’ll probably get the better of the same two in the Tingle Creek. But I remain convinced he’s not at his best around Cheltenham, and come March, he may find himself up against it with horses like Gaelic Warrior, or .

ANDREW: This is a fair question, as we were perhaps overly snippy about Jonbon in our post November Meeting review on the channel. Jonbon is a horse I enjoy watching thoroughly - he jumps for fun and has an exceptional engine and win record. There is no doubt in my mind that if the Champion Chase was run around Sandown Park, he would win it - but unfortunately it is not. I hope that something else comes and gives him a race in the Tingle Creek this season, whether that one of the two horses that have laid down decent markers for the up and comers in and . 

I think it is essential that Jonbon has some decent tasks to overcome this season, as that might give him the best chance come March - instead of repeatedly taking on Edwardstone, who is a super horse, but has always shown himself off to be around five pounds below Jonbon's level. Perhaps this year will be his year, but I wouldn't be so sure.

JOSH: I’ve certainly been swept up before by a Arkle hopeful, but this was, without a doubt, the performance of the season for me so far. and set a strong, honest gallop, ensuring his jumping was tested, but L’Eau Du Sud answered every challenge with precision. He clearly learned from his mistake at and showed a level of professionalism for a novice.

While and have set a high bar for Skelton-trained two-mile chasers, I genuinely believe this horse has the highest ceiling of the lot. He’ll take the Henry VIII at Sandown in a couple of weeks, likely have a break, then return for the Kingmaker, possibly facing . After that, he’ll be a serious contender in the Arkle.

ANDREW: Suprise, Suprise - here we are with another Skelton Novice that Josh has fallen head over heels in love with. However, I will concede that this horse is showing an awful lot more than Lac De Constance, who was the previous up and coming grey horse from the yard that Josh would sing from the rooftops. 

Jokes aside, it was a very smart performance from L'Eau Du Sud, who pounced on the back of a strong gallop set by Lookaway, and put him in his place impressively. The merit of the form is open to some interpretation - as I'm not convinced Lookaway has run to his hurdles mark on either start over fences as of yet, and Western Zephyr would need to improve plenty on what he has achieved to be a long-term graded prospect. There is plenty of water to go under the bridge between now and Cheltenham in March, and it would be of absolutely no surprise should he arrive to the festival unbeaten. Whether he can beat the likes of an Inthepocket, Firefox, or most importantly, - is a different matter. 

JOSH: One of the few horses I actually got right last season. I didn’t expect him to divide opinion as much as he has, but then again, when you’re almost joint-favourite for a Gold Cup alongside a superstar like Galopin Des Champs, who’s already proven himself twice, you're bound to ruffle a few feathers.

A major point of criticism has been the strength of the form he showed in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase, where he comfortably dispatched a field that hasn’t exactly set the world alight. Beating Monty’s Star by a few lengths might not scream top-tier form, but if you take the word of the runner-up’s trainer, Henry de Bromhead, who stated in his stable tour that they believe they have a Gold Cup contender, it adds a different perspective.

For me, he’s Galopin’s biggest threat, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he even made the champion sweat at Leopardstown over Christmas or at the Dublin Racing Festival. Andrew mentioned on the podcast before that he’d prefer to back over Fact To File for the Gold Cup — I wonder if he still feels the same way.

ANDREW: Fact To File has been a good horse for the enjoyment of racing in the last few years as decided to rewind the clock to Florida Pearl days to send this horse straight over fences, rather than taking a novice hurdle campaign for a horse who was clearly 'a chaser in the making'.

He was pretty flawless last year as well, with two commanding victories at Leopardstown before winning the Brown Advisory Novices Chase at Cheltenham. That form looks okay but nothing too special on the face of things, and I would be a small concerned as to the proximity to horses such as and in behind. He did win tidily though and should be able to step forward this season with another summer on his back. Does he deserve to be in the picture for the Gold Cup? Of course he does. Should he be ante-post favourite for the race? Of course, he shouldn't.

A NOLAN/CONNELL/MCCONNELL/MCKIERNAN HORSE TO BACK: Trying to find a horse to run for this column seems to be causing more hassle than I first anticipated, with this dry spell of conditions playing havoc with entries leading to declarations. However, there is rain forecast for the week, and I am hoping that will make this a little bit easier. The horse I am going to side with is Kiltealy Park, a mare who has two entries in Beginners Chases this Sunday at . One is in the Mares races against her own sex, while she has also been given an entry in the geldings and mares equivilant. 

This mare was progressive last season, collecting a maiden hurdle at at the back end of the season. She was kept on the go for the first part of the summer, when making a mockery of her initial mark of 107 at Wexford, when winning by 10 lengths, and she can be excused for being outpaced on proper good ground at in June. A PtP recruit - this mare has been bought to jump fences and she reportedly schooled well in recent weeks. If the scheduled rain does arrive, I would be disappointed should she not be able to make a good fist of it on chase debut.

A DEBUTANT TO WATCH: in whichever bumper he runs in this weekend.