Let's Talk Racing: Q&A, Cheltenham Festival chat and horses to follow

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In our latest show, we asked our followers to send in questions ahead of the Jumps season notching up a gear, and we received some brilliant questions! Here's a few of the key questions we were asked, and our responses.

JOSH: With the recent changes to the Turners, it's certainly increased the chances that a novice will step up to the Ryanair, though it's still quite unlikely. Regardless of personal opinions, the Ryanair is a top-quality race, and trainers recognise this. Consider the impressive lineup of past winners: Imperial Commander, Cue Card, Un De Sceaux, Frodon, Min, Allaho, and Protektorat...the list goes on. Would you really put a horse with only 2-3 runs over fences against any of them? I certainly wouldn’t.

ANDREW: In theory, the idea of running some of these horses in Grade 1’s does look like a potential option, but I would be very doubtful should we see it in actuality. The only horse that could perhaps go into that bracket is Impaire Et Passe, as he has already proven himself at open Grade 1 level over hurdles. It isn’t the style of the likes of Willie Mullins / Gordon Elliot to do so though, as Gordon has always said: “keep yourself in the best company, and your horses in the worst.”

JOSH: Please leave us alone, Willie! Just kidding (or am I?). I actually think it’s beneficial for the sport, as it makes races more competitive. With so many Grade 1 horses in his stable, especially chasers, it makes perfect sense for Willie to spread them out before Cheltenham. Looking at the entries for Cheltenham this week, it’s great to see W P Mullins among them—it will definitely make betting a bit trickier. We could be in for a tough time if Willie has set his sights on winning the British Trainers’ Championship!

ANDREW: I never feel that Willie Mullins starts each season with any great plans to runs loads of horses over in the UK, and despite his success last season - I see no different this time around. However, should he be able to procure a race like the Tingle Creek (El Fabiolo?) or the King George (Gaelic Warrior?), his interest may be peaked again. I would think he will target a lot more of the races come the turn of the year. As much as it won’t be Willie Mullins, I do see some of the other Irish trainers such as Gavin Cromwell et al targeting earlier season races in the UK to try and plunder big prizes.

JOSH: There are two key reasons why this situation has developed, given that the initial plan was for Brighterdaysahead to go chasing. First, she has schooled at home and hasn’t jumped as well as expected. Second, she was set to run in the Turners, but with Cheltenham's changes, if she focuses on mares’ chases, she won’t have the opportunity to compete for a Grade 1 this season, as there are none available. I believe the second reason is more likely. Honestly, if I owned a top-class Grade 1-winning novice mare, I would want her competing in Grade 1 races throughout the season, especially since there are more opportunities over hurdles.

ANDREW: It is a case of whether they value her running in a Mares Chase enough to go down that path, given that is really the only viable option for her at the Festival now. She is already a Grade 1 winner over hurdles last season at Aintree and I feel it would feel like a step back to only be aimed at a Grade 2 come March next season. However, with Lossiemouth holding the Mares Hurdle division at the moment, it will be interesting to see what route Gordon feels he would like to go down. My gut instinct tells me they will stay hurdling. 

JOSH: I have little doubt that Jeriko Du Reponet is a talented horse capable of competing in graded novice events this season, but I firmly believe he’s not suited to two-mile races. He struggled throughout the Supreme, and the fast pace really took him out of his comfort zone, which negatively affected his hurdling. According to RaceiQ’s data, he lost ground at all seven hurdles he attempted before being pulled up - the only horse in the field to do so. While Nicky Henderson’s stable form may have played a role, I’m convinced he will shine more at a longer distance rather than at the minimum trip.

ANDREW: Jeriko Du Reponet is a hard horse to assess, and my gut feeling would be to give him a good chance this season. As much as going up in trip looks like it will suit, I would be surprised to see them go for that too soon - given his early season form last season. His win at Doncaster, while not flashy on the eye, has been very well advertised, and you can put a line through the run at Cheltenham, where he was never travelling, and it seemed like he was a sick horse. Buoyed by a new season, I expect to see him make a splash in the UK two-mile Novice Chase division, but may come up a little shy when it comes to the Arkle. 

JOSH: Constitution Hill was the best hurdler I’ve ever seen, and I’d have no doubts about him dominating these competitors if his injury hadn’t left potential permanent effects on his ability. That uncertainty makes me cautious. Strangely, I’m not too concerned about State Man, who has never truly convinced at Cheltenham despite winning both the County Hurdle and the Champion Hurdle. His performance last year was workmanlike against Irish Point, and he was soundly beaten by Constitution Hill the year before.

For me, Lossiemouth is the real contender that Nicky Henderson should be wary of. She dominated her own division last year with impressive ease, showing a strong affinity for Cheltenham. Quick and agile, she jumps exceptionally well and has proven she can handle 2m4f thoroughly—reminiscent of Annie Power. Lossiemouth has the potential to be a serious threat, especially if Constitution Hill isn't at his best, but her participation in the Champion Hurdle remains a doubt. The competition is heating up, and it will be fascinating to see how these dynamics play out in the upcoming season.

ANDREW: We have been kept up to date with Constitution Hill on a day by day basis recently. In fact I feel I have read more messages regarding the superstar hurdler than I have had messages from the family! The truth of the matter is that he is the best in the business if he can replicate that form from two seasons ago, and perhaps might still be the best even if he retained 90/95% of that ability. 

However, the big word there is ‘if’. My quandary is that I feel we won’t be able to see how genuinely good he still is in any of the runs that may be a pre-cursor to Cheltenham. He should have relatively straight forward tasks at Newcastle and Kempton, so he may only have to be 75% to keep that winning run in concrete. My worry is what will be left under the bonnet when the chips are down at Cheltenham, with horses like State Man, Mystical Power and Lossiemouth all sniffing around for any chinks in the armour. I’m not convinced we will see the Constitution Hill of old ever again, and as a result - he could be vulnerable come March. 

This weekend is an excellent time to be a National Hunt fan; Cheltenham’s return ties in nicely with some informative Irish cards at Galway and Wexford. My attention will be on Rue Taylor for Paul Nolan, who will run in the Auction Maiden Hurdle at Galway on Saturday. Inexpensively bought after winning an ordinary Hexham bumper, this likeable mare seems to save her best for the track, as she has impressed in two recent away days for current connections, despite not showing too much at home. She should improve for whatever she does here but should run very well in a race which connections won last year with an exciting prospect in Release The Beast. 

I’ll be watching The Big Westerner if she runs in the (3.03pm) at Clonmel on Thursday. After her victory in a Ballycahane Mares Maiden in March, she was sold for £120,000 at the Cheltenham Festival Sale. Now under the care of Henry De Bromhead, the form from her point-to-point race looks promising, especially with the runner-up, Jasmine d’Airy, winning her next race - a Tipperary bumper - by six lengths.