Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup tips: five for the shortlist

The forecast for Ayr is a little mixed in the lead up to Saturday's Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup, but looks likely to be run on ground no slower than last year's official going description of 'soft'; it's 'good to soft' at the moment with blustery conditions likely to negate the rain showers, to some degree at least. 

Though much is made of the draw – which is held in (S)FA Cup style and this year features Scott Sinclair and Kris Boyd ahead of Sunday's Old Firm derby – it generally boils down to where the pace is rather than just track position, though it's worth noting that the last two winners – Lethal Levi and Run Boy Run – both made all of the running (on opposite sides of the track). This year the draw will be a straight horse to stall allocation and there will be no opportunity to select a stalls position. 

Horses drawn low did dominate last year's renewal on soft ground, but the 2023 renewal on good-to-soft saw all of the field run in a big clump down the middle/far side as horses drawn 12-14 filled three of the first four places. 

The last heavy-ground renewal (2018) saw high numbers dominate on the stands' side, but a year earlier under similar conditions stall 4 (Donjuan Triumphant) beat stalls 11 and 2. 

Several stables are hitting top form ahead of the meeting, notably that of William Haggas who saddles the favourite Binhareer. Sixth last year from 13 lb lower, he won on his next start at York and has run three strong races in defeat this term. 

Haggas also has the very progressive three-year-old Thunder Call who could bid to follow in the footsteps of Angel Alexander (2019) and Don't Touch (2015), though his win over seven furlongs last time opened up other options such as the Challenge Cup at Ascot in a couple of weeks' time. 

Recent Curragh winner Coul Angel has had a busier season, but produced a career-best at the weekend and would be a big player if turned out quickly under a 5-lb penalty, however I'm more interested in the stable form of Tim Easterby. April to August yielded monthly strike-rates of between 6-11%, but he's already had 14 winners in September at a profitable 15% strike-rate. 

The uptick has likely coincided with some more traditional autumn ground, which shouldn't be a problem for Red Spells Danger who ran well over seven furlongs at this meeting last year as a two-year-old. He beat Thunder Call by a length and a half at the Shergar Cup meeting last month and was done no favours by a wide (low) draw at York last time. It's a while since an Easterby won this race, but the three-year-old looks Tim's best recent chance to emulate his uncle Mick and dad Peter. 

As you might expect, there's a lot of collateral form flying around from these sprinters who often contest the same heritage handicaps.  

Last year's winner Run Boy Run has some ground to make up on the likes of Evening Saigon, who in turn was behind Far Above Dream, Coul Angel and Dance In The Storm at York, but he represents a yard that is very adept at target training and you can be sure that he will have had this race as a long-held aim. He's 5 lb higher than a year ago but his mark doesn't look beyond him (won off 99 in Meydan). 

That last comment also applies to Far Above Dream who was only beaten a nose by Sondad at York last month, while he was also right in the mix in both the Wokingham and Stewards Cup from this perch. Stratusnine – who ran a cracker at York under the unfavoured stands' rail - is another with a similar profile, though he might prefer quicker ground. 

I'm also interested in Fine Interview who was beaten two lengths into seventh at York last time, but that race didn't really play to his strengths, and he was doing his best work at the finish.  

It's due to be blustery on Saturday, with the wind coming from a west/southwest direction which will be something of a headwind. Getting cover could prove crucial, and if his jockey can get him nicely tucked in, then the grey could provide his trainer Hamad Al Jehani with yet another big handicap win. 

Of the others towards the head of the betting, Flash Harry was unable to make any impression in this race last year after a similar prep win at Goodwood, while Tuco Salamanca's new mark following his Ascot win might leave him vulnerable; I'm not sure he's in the same league as the likes of Donjuan Triumphant or Brando who won from similarly high marks. 

Last year's Silver Cup winner Candy has attracted support in recent weeks, but his homework must be very different to what he has shown on the track this season, for all his chance was compromised on his first two outings. 

At bigger odds, I'm more interested in Toyotomi who didn't have a hard race when mid-field behind stablemate Coul Angel at the Curragh at the weekend. His mark of 94 wouldn't guarantee him a berth in this race, but he would have got in over the last few years and a strongly-run six furlongs on soft ground is his cup of tea. 

But the final place on my shortlist goes to last year's runner-up Desert Falcon who should be primed for this race after a solid effort in the half-furlong shorter Portland last weekend at Doncaster (he won at that meeting 12 months ago before almost following up). He is actually 2 lb wrong at the weights due to this being an early closer, but his trainer has a fine record in this race and, along with last year's fourth Purosangue, he looks a big player at the foot of the weights.