RacingTV’s American Racing Expert RACHEL CANDELORA is currently in the United States soaking up the atmosphere in the Kentucky Derby build up - here's her forensic guide to the runners and her idea of the ones to concentrate upon from a betting point of view ahead of the 151st Run For The Roses.
Six-times Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert is back at Churchill, after suspension, for the first time since the 2021 Medina Spirit disqualification, and he brings two Derby chances including Citizen Bull – the 2024 Champion 2yo and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner.
This son of Into Mischief made a winning comeback in the Gr 3 Robert B Lewis Stakes over 1m at Santa Anita before finishing a tired fourth in the Gr 1 Santa Anita Derby, where connections say he was not 100% fit. Citizen Bull has been working regularly since, on a five-day cycle, including putting in a very quick final breeze on Monday at Churchill Downs over 5f – fitness he will need to get his approximately 1200lbs self the full 1 ¼ miles of the Derby.
All of his wins have come from the front and PP1 has given him no room for any change in tactics, and after the draw Bob Baffert stated that “he’s going to have to leave there running.” However, he is one of the few horses coming into this year’s Derby on a recovery mission vs being progressive and with a lot of inside speed signed on the 2yo Champ has a mountain to climb on Saturday if he is to become the first horse since Ferdinand in 1986 to win from the dreaded one-hole.
2 NEOEQUOS
Represents leading Florida-based trainer Saffie Joseph Jr with both of his wins coming in sprints at Gulfstream Park. He was moved up dramatically in distance in his last two starts which resulted in a pair of 3rd placed finishes in the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth and most recently in the Gr 1 Florida Derby, losing ground at the end of each of those races.
Neoequos is another pace horse drawn inside, who has shown no sign that the Derby distance is within his stamina range. His originally-declared jockey Flavien Prat jumped ship to ride the reserve Baeza when he drew into the field, opening the door for Luis Saez to step in for the mount.
3 FINAL GAMBIT
One of the three greys in this race, this Juddmonte homebred will be making his dirt debut in the Kentucky Derby having previously only raced on turf and the All-weather, a feat only Animal Kingdom in 2011 has achieved to date. This son of Not This Time earned a berth in the Derby with his win in the Gr 3 Jeff Ruby Stakes (Spiral Stakes) at Turfway on the AW coming from 12th (and last) to sprint past the field to win going away by 3 ½ lengths.
This final prep, which Animal Kingdom used, has been productive in terms of the Kentucky Derby in the last few years producing upset Derby winner Rich Strike in 2022 and Derby runner-up Two Phil’s in 2023. Trainer Brad Cox has stated that Final Gambit has been training very well on the Churchill dirt since the Jeff Ruby win, however from PP3, with speed all around him, he is going to eat a great deal of dirt.
4 RODRIGUEZ
SCRATCHED
5 AMERICAN PROMISE
A huge, 17-hands-high son of Triple Crown Winner Justify he will become the 51st Kentucky Derby starter for the legendary 89-year-old D. Wayne Lukas. He broke the clock when winning the inaugural running of the Virgina Derby by 7 ¾ lengths at Colonial Downs over 1 1/8th miles – albeit this would be one of the weakest Derby preps this year.
The Derby trip over 1 ¼ miles will suit him being by Justify out of a Tapit mare, and he has more experience than the rest of the field with 9 lifetime starts under his belt. He will need to break better than normal in order to maintain a good position up with the pace from PP5, which statistically is the best gate to break from having produced a record 10 previous winners, and an ROI (top 3 finishers) of 29.5%.
His jockey Nik Juarez is having his first ride in the Kentucky Derby, however his agent is retired Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens, who teamed up with Lukas to win two Derbys with Winning Colors (1988) and Thunder Gulch (1995). He has an outside chance to give “The Coach” a fifth Derby win.
Watch: It's a three-way photo for the 2024 Kentucky Derby
6 ADMIRE DAYTONA
One of the two Japanese raiders in the race and the only Derby runner who paid the late Triple Crown Nomination Fee to be eligible to run in the Derby. A winner of two of his six career starts including in the Gr 2 UAE Derby at Meydan last time out, a prep that only Forever Young has used to run well when a close up third in the Derby last year, and Admire Daytona is not Forever Young.
In the UAE Derby he led/vied for the lead throughout on an incredibly speed-favouring racecourse (in four of the five dirt races the winner made all). This son of the 2016 Champion Sprinter Drefong also used pacey tactics to win his maiden in Japan. He has faced his fellow Japanese rival, Luxor Café, twice in his career and has been beaten by him both times. While you can see Admire Daytona being part of the early pace, it would be a surprise to see him involved in the homestretch.
7 LUXOR CAFE
Ten years on since American Pharoah won the Kentucky Derby en-route to winning the Triple Crown his son looks to bring home a first Derby victory for Japan. A winner of his last four races, three in stakes company, he earned a trip to Louisville via the Japanese Road To The KY Derby.
Luxor Café has been getting more impressive in his races the further he goes including with an easy five-length win in the Fukuryu Stakes last time over 1 1/8th miles at Nakayama. In that race he swept into contention on the far turn and then destroyed the field easily under his new rider Joao Moreira who retains the mount in Louisville.
This will be a first Derby ride for Joao Moreira but he has ridden winners before under the Twin Spires when he had a short stint there in 2013. On Luxor Café’s first appearance at Churchill last week he appeared to work watchers to be a little flat however he seemed to pick up his energy levels in recent days including a piece of work on Monday that had Moreira with his feet up on the dashboard. He had tended to be ridden wide and in the clear in his previous races, however he may not get that luxury in the Derby, but he does have the tactical speed to get a good early position and it appears that the long home straight and race distance will suit him.
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8 JOURNALISM
This son of Curlin is the favourite for the Kentucky Derby for a reason – you have to really dig deep to find any cracks in his armor. He is undefeated in four starts going around two-turns including in three consecutive stakes races (his only career defeat was on debut over 6f). Journalism has the speed and power to get a good stalking position, is bred to get this trip, and showed that he can deal with some traffic issues having to switch around a tiring Citizen Bull on the way to winning the Gr 1 Santa Anita Derby over 1 1/8 miles.
In his final work at Churchill Downs this past Sunday jockey Umberto Rispoli flew in from California and put him through his paces over 5f in a work even the most critical work watcher could not fault. The only chink in Journalism, if you dig deep, is that he has only faced 12 rivals in his three stakes victories and he faces 19 in the Derby, but again he has showed that he is tactically able to get out of trouble and PP8 allows him to get a good early position as amazingly he appears to be one the few horses in this 20-strong field who is happy stalking the pace and therefore should enjoy a perfect trip.
Trainer Mike McCarthy is only having his second ever runner in the race, however he was a longstanding assistant to Todd Pletcher, so he knows how to peak a horse on Derby Day.
9 BURNHAM SQUARE
A winner of three of his six career starts including a breakthrough stakes success this past winter in the Gr 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream before cementing himself a solid Derby contender with his win in the Gr 1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland over 1 1/8th miles beating Derby rival East Avenue on the line.
The Bluegrass Stakes was a race that had a pace implosion that suited Burnham Square with a couple of fancied rivals under performing, and while this prep is usually one of the major ones this year it was just visually unimpressive.
This son of Liam’s Map has the benefit of being trained locally by Ian Wilkes and is the mount of last year’s Oaks/Derby hero Brian Hernandez Jr. He is one of the many closers in this race, however he has shown a tendency to be a bit slow to get into his run and therefore Brian Hernandez Jr might have to circle wide to find a clear passage in the stretch.
Burnham Square bids to become only the third gelding to win the Kentucky Derby this century following in the hoofprints of Funny Cide (2003) and Mind That Bird (2009).
10 GRANDE
For those die-hard Derby fans finding out that trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey John Velazquez, and owner Mike Repole are coming into this year’s race quietly with a 20-1 shot is a whiplash-inducing read, but it's happening, and Grande is quickly becoming the wise-guy horse of this year’s Kentucky Derby.
2025 marks the 25th anniversary of Todd Pletcher’s first runners in the Kentucky Derby, and two winners later (Super Saver 2010 and Always Dreaming 2017), Pletcher will extend his own record of saddling the most starters in the history of the Derby when Grande becomes his 66th runner.
This son of Curlin won his first two races easily sitting up with the pace and cruising home over 1m and 1 1/8th miles at Gulfstream before being thrown in the deep end in the Gr 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on only his 3rd start where he finished second to Rodriguez. The runner-up effort in the Wood however was, according to Pletcher a “sneaky good race,” as Grande had to check off heels going into the first turn which put him five-wide around the turn and into the backstretch, before he stayed on to finish a clear 2nd.
For students of Kentucky Derby stats Grande has two significant negatives against him – he is only making his fourth career start and he did not race at two (only Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018 has overcome both of these stats).
Helping him to overcome his inexperience is three-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Johnny V who gets back aboard today, having been unable to ride in the Wood. 54-year-old Velaquez will be taking his 27th ride in the Derby having steered Always Dreaming to success for Todd Pletcher. For connections who usually come into the Derby with a top four pick Grande has been making some noise for a longshot.
11 FLYING MOHAWK
Another Derby contender who will be making his dirt debut having earned his berth with a runner-up effort behind Final Gambit in the Gr 3 Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway Park on his All-weather debut. He was another who closed from well back at Turfway and while the pace scenario in the Derby looks like it could suit him he is bred more to fancy turf, as both of his wins to date have come on turf, and he will probably become a decent level grass performer later on in the season. Local trainer Whit Beckman is taking the blinkers off for this run (a change of equipment ahead of the Derby is historical is not a successful move).
12 EAST AVENUE
One of two contenders in this year’s Derby for Godolphin and potentially the widest-drawn major speed in the race. This son of Medaglia d’Oro was one of the leading two-year-olds last season with two dominating front-running wins including in the Gr 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and then was sent off favourite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he nearly went down coming out of the gate and all chances were lost.
However a poor start with no excuses in the Gr 2 Risen Star on his three-year-old come back left trainer Brendan Walsh having to go back to the drawing board. Blinkers and a hard early ride got East Avenue back on track with a game runner-up effort in the Gr 1 Blue Grass where he attempted to make all of the running just getting nabbed late by Burnham Square.
In the build up to the Derby, the way that East Avenue has been training mirrors his run style in the race as he has been rank and there has been no holding him. This half brother of the 2023 Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish gets a new jockey for this year’s Derby with Manny Franco, however the trip is a question mark.
Although he should not be involved in the finish, he will probably lead them under the wire for the first time and then he might cause major traffic issues when the stamina runs out – he isn’t a horse I would want to be tracking leaving the backstretch...
13 PUBLISHER
Another son of Derby winner American Pharoah who is looking to do something in the Derby that has not been done since 1933 and has only been done three times prior in Derby history – and win the Kentucky Derby as a maiden. This Steve Asmussen trainee has been placed in five of his seven career starts including when runner-up in the Gr 1 Arkansas Derby over 1 1/8th miles at Oaklawn last time out. In that race, when blinkered for the first time, he followed fellow closer Sandman through the stretch to finished 2nd by 2 ½ lengths.
While the pace of the Derby should set up for Publisher, he has not really gotten very close to winning a race having finished 1 ½ lengths 2nd in maiden to American Promise is his closest finish to date. However he will have services of Irad Ortiz Jr for the first time on Saturday.
14 TIZTASTIC
Trained, like Publisher, by Steve Asmussen, who has trained over 10,000 career winners and is still looking for that first elusive Derby victory from 26 starters prior to this year – an unwanted record.
This son of the Tiz The Law won twice at 2yo on the turf before losing four consecutive Derby preps the final two of which were at Oaklawn. He finally got back on top with an inspired rail-skimming ride by Joel Rosario to win the Gr 2 Louisiana Derby over 1 3/16th miles at the Fair Grounds in March, the longest domestic Derby Prep.
It was unusual for Steve Asmussen to ship an Oaklawn-based horse south to New Orleans for his final prep, however horsemen were all agreed that the Fair Grounds had the weakest 3yo crop this year. He will need to improve off that run to be a factor in the Derby, and since returning to Churchill has been outworked by Publisher in his final three works. The one thing that might be in his favor is the long stretch at Churchill as his three career wins have all come at tracks with very long home stretches.
15 RENDER JUDGEMENT
A son of Churchill Down’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame, he has only won one race, however that race was at least over the Churchill surface, in a 1 1/16th mile maiden – one of only three runners in the race who have won over this track previously. He is a closer who has been beaten four lengths or more in four Derby preps and trainer Kenny McPeek, who trained Mystick Dan to win last year’s Derby, did not want to declare him last Saturday when decs were taken as he though an entry level allowance over the weekend was a better fit for the horse. However against his advice the owners told McPeek to run the horse in the Derby so he will – but then again Jeremy Scott didn’t want to declare Golden Ace in the Champion Hurdle, so what do trainers really know?! Render Judgement gets a new rider for this big assignment as multiple Churchill champion jockey Julien Leparoux gets aboard.
16 COAL BATTLE
This year’s underdog story, a horse that comes from the wrong side of the tracks, not bred in the purple, trained by a 72-year-old little known veteran, but just like Rich Strike or Mind That Bird sometimes these horses do pull off the upset. However with Coal Battle it would be less of an upset, he brings solid credentials into this year’s race.
He broke his maiden at Evangeline Downs in Louisiana over 5f on a sloppy track before launching himself into the early Derby picture with wins in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Down in Louisiana and the Springboard Mile at Remington Park in Oklahoma. He then reeled off wins in Arkansas in the Smarty Jones Stakes and the Gr 2 Rebel, however an early move in the Gr 1 Arkansas Derby might have cost him his chances and he could only fade to finish 3rd behind Sandman and Publisher. While his pedigree does not scream out for 1 ¼ miles he is a small and very quick accelerating horse that with a little luck could hang on for a small piece. As it’s Louisville in early May, if the track has any moisture in it Coal Battle moves up big time as he is a perfect 2-for-2 on an off-track.
17 SANDMAN
A grey son of Tapit he has the distinction of being the most expensive runner in this year’s race costing US$1.2 million as a Breeze-up juvenile last March. A winner of three of his eight races he finally secured a big prize to rally from near the back to win the Gr 1 Arkansas Derby by 2 ½ lengths over 1 1/8th miles. This success validated his trainer Mark Casse’s views that extra distance would suit him. However his performance in the Arkansas Derby divided opinion – was he very green when he hit the front (on his eighth start) or was he reaching the end of his stamina range or was he waiting for company?
While being drawn outside is a positive with his run style, PP17 is 0-45 in the Derby – the only post position to not have produced a Derby winner. At the time of writing Sandman is the plunge horse in the US pools making him second favourite and given his antics whilst beating a maiden in the Arkansas Derby he may a horse to take a stand against at the prices.
18 SOVEREIGNTY
The other Godolphin representative, and main hope, in this year’s Derby and a horse that has been on top of people’s Derby lists since last year and for many has remained there even with the West-coast heroics of Journalism. Like all of Bill Mott’s horses, this big son of Into Mischief has been given all the time he needed earlier in his career and it shows the high esteem that Mott and Godolphin held Sovereignty that they ran him in the Gr 3 Street Sense Stakes as a maiden – trust me that was an eyecatching move for these connections! Needless to say Sovereignty romped home by five lengths coming last to first over 1 1/16th miles here at Churchill Downs beating Tiztastic and Sandman.
During the winter a fever set his training back and he only returned in March to win the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park over 1 1/16th miles – an impressive performance considering he is a closer and the 1 1/16th miles at Gulfstream finishes at the first of two finish lines and therefore has a short stretch. Hall of Fame Trainer Bill Mott brough him back in the Gr 1 Florida Derby where he finished a closing 2nd on a speed favouring racetrack. His regular rider Junior Alvarado was out injured for that race, but will be back in the irons for the Derby.
Sovereignty has been one of the eye catchers in the mornings and work watchers say he is sitting on a big race and Bill Mott has been here before when Country House was promoted to first after suffering interference. He broke from PP18 – just like Sovereignty will on Saturday.
19 CHUNK OF GOLD
Another of the “little guys” coming into this year’s race having cost only $2,500 as a yearling he began his racing career in Northern Kentucky at Turfway Park on the all-weather, where he won on debut over 6f. This son of Preservationist earned his way into this field via two runner-up finishes at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans in the Gr 2 Risen Star Stakes and the Gr 2 Louisiana Derby. Although he may be outclassed in this spot his four career starts to date have now netted his connections over $348,000 – making him a seriously smart bargain buy. Chunk Of Gold and the other two greys in the field bid to become the first grey since Giacomo in 2005 to win the Derby.
20 OWEN ALMIGHTY
A speedy son of Speightstown, he broke his maiden over this track over 5 ½f as a 2yo before winning or finishing second in five subsequent races including winning the Gr 3 Tampa Bay Derby where he blitzed the field over 1 1/16th miles and wrote himself into the Derby picture. He followed that up with his worst performance to date when he tired badly after pushing the pace in the Gr 1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland over 1 1/8th miles last time out.
Trainer Brian Lynch has gone back and forth since the Bluegrass as to whether Owen Almighty will run in the Derby, but here he is with PP20 for his troubles and connections have indicated that from this draw a new hold-up run style will be adopted.
21 BAEZA
Typically one does not get excited about reserves drawing into the field because normally they are reserves for a reason, but Baeza is one of the biggest of the ‘hype’ horses in this year’s Derby. This son of McKinzie is out of the dam Puca who is better know as the dam of Mage, the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner, and Dornoch, the 2024 Belmont Stakes winner.
Trained by Kentucky Derby winning trainer John Shirreffs, Baeza took three tries to break his maiden, but once he did was thrown straight into the Gr 1 Santa Anita Derby where he got the lead at the top of the stretch and then battle with Journalism who only got past him in the final strides to win by thee-parts of a length.
Although having to break from the outside of the Derby starting gate is never ideal very few horses ever enter the KY Derby picture with such solid 1 ¼-mile breeding which suggests that he will be a major player. Flavien Prat gets off the #2 to ride.
RACHEL CANDELORA'S KENTUCKY DERBY VERDICT
Over here in the United States there is a real feeling of positivity going into this year’s Run For The Roses as many industry insiders and racing fans believe this year’s race has the feel of an “old school” Derby with a lot of cheap speed and late closers. With just over 40% of this mile-and-a-quarter race around a bend, a clean trip and track position will be everything. And one imagines there will be several hard-luck stories this time around.
My view is that this race will be run in three groups – the front running speed balls, the stalkers, and the closers, and I think this year there are levels within the closing group. With the closers there are those that can hang on behind the stalkers and there are those horses without a lick of early and will need every inch of the stretch and a lot of luck.
Therefore with this race/pace scenario I really want to be on a horse that sits mid pack. This has been a Derby where my opinion has really been divided between two horses for several months – Sovereignty and Journalism. Sovereignty was always a talking horse, even before he made his debut at Saratoga, and the belief his high achieving connections had in him was shown by running him as a maiden in a Grade 3 race, which he went on to win as the well-backed favourite. Whereas Journalism was always under the radar as “the horse that kept beating Bob Baffert hotpots.” He never really became a horse within his own right until he won the Santa Anita Derby... but then looking back the form was clearly there for all to see.
I am not going to jump ship now. #18 SOVEREIGNTY is a progressive, strong closer who has shown that he can close effectively into all types of pace scenarios and even though he comes from off the pace he tends to sit only five to six lengths off the speed in his prior races, so he should fit nicely into the closers-that-get-first-run category.
Also a massive positive is that his regular rider Junior Alvarado is back off injury and reunites with him and he has that ever important experience of not only racing over but winning over the Churchill Downs surface.
# 8 JOURNALISM is without doubt the biggest danger and pace wise he should sit almost a perfect trip stalking the pace in the two/three path, and might get first run on the closers.
#21 BAEZA will appreciate the test of this race and has always been held in high regard.
#7 LUXOR CAFÉ is the unknown quantity in this field having raced exclusively in Japan, but Japanese connections know the type and quality of horse that they need to win a Derby and he looks a very exciting prospect and while Joao Moreira has never ridden in a Derby before he isn’t called the “Magic Man” for nothing.
Outside of these four, if you're looking for something to plug on late into a place in your exotics, pick any of the other closers in this race – the likes of #3 Final Gambit, #9 Burham Square, #13 Publisher, and #16 Coal Battle all would fit the bill.