Juvenile Watch: Thursday fancy, Newmarket notes, a sire on fire and more

Juvenile Watch returns for series four.

As the National Hunt season draws to a close it’s time for me to divert my attention to the Flat game - and particularly the juvenile class of 2024 - as throughout the year I endeavour to keep you up to speed with all aspects of the two-year-old scene.

‘Star Performer’ aims to highlight the potential top-class recruits amongst this year's crop, while ‘Winners In Waiting’ and ‘Nursery Time’ will aim to provide you with some ammunition for your .

Last season we gained great insight thanks to interviews with breeders and yearling and breeze-up consignors as well as jockeys and trainers, and this too will continue in 2024.

Finally, as an exciting addition this year I’ll be able to tap into the excellent data made available by RaceiQ. Will certain first-season sires bless their progeny with early speed? Or did that winner quicken impressively or did their rivals simply slow?

I’m excited for what the season has in store, so let’s get started.

There is of course very little information to work with at this time of season, but one does catch the eye in the on Thursday.

William Haggas is not renowned for early types, but assistant trainer and wife Maureen referenced during the winter that a concerted effort had been made to purchase yearlings that might be a little more precocious.

Last year the exception to the stable modus operandi was Relief Rally. She made her winning debut at Windsor on April 24 in the colours of Simon Munir and Isaac Souede and the daughter of Kodiac was her trainer's first two-year-old runner of the season.

Tomorrow, the first juvenile runner of the year for Somerville Lodge is Kalippos - also a daughter of Kodiac and another to race in the double green of the same owners. Like Relief Rally, she was also purchased by Anthony Bromley. 

Could lightening strike twice a year and one day later?

Plenty of time has passed since the Brocklesby back in March, but given this introductory week serves as something of a general catch-up it seems prudent to give that race a mention.

The ground at for the first turf race for two-year olds was soft, and across the card it looked like hard work.

Trainer enjoyed a breakthrough season in 2023 and scored another notable win here with the small but tough . Under new stable jockey Rhys Clutterbuck, the son of Territories was marginally slow leaving the stalls but travelled nicely at the rear of the field. He came under pressure before half way and it took a while for the penny to drop, but he finished to good effect to claim early leader Paddy’s Courage with half a furlong to run and then repelled the late challenge of Bob The Bandit despite shifting to his right in the closing strides.

Speaking to Dylan Cunha this morning, he told me the intention is to run at Ascot on May 1 and that, after a quiet ten days after the Brocklesby, Zminiature has been built back up to fitness. Confidence of a bold showing is high, with the trainer telling me: “I’d think bar bumping into a really good sort he will be right there. I’m very happy with him, any rain would help but I’m sure he’ll go on any ground.”

Last year, I took the view that the form of the renewal won by Doddie’s Impact on heavy ground should be treated with caution unless proved otherwise. That opinion played out well as, since last year's Brocklesby, the 15 individuals have run in 108 races managing just 9 wins, with all of those in relatively low grades.

My initial instinct is to take the same stance with this year’s renewal. I think it’s noteworthy that the sires of the first four home Zminiature (Territories), Bob The Bandit (Aclaim), (Mayson) and (Coulsty) had all shown an ability to handle soft ground. I’d suggest it was an ability to handle conditions rather than raw ability that shaped the result of this race.

All bar four of the field have run again since, with only Atherstone Warrior giving the form a boost with his win at earlier this month. For now, that’s not enough to convince me as to the level of this form and I’ll look to oppose this form line wherever possible.

One notable exception might be . He was well supported in the market but was slowly away and outpaced in the early stages before making some solid late progress. He again shaped with promise at Thirsk on his next start when possibly not handling the track in a race won by Atherstone Warrior.

By Mohaather out of Dutch S – her only form came at further than six furlongs - he would be of interest when tried over six furlongs on a sounder surface.

The bet365 Craven Meeting at Newmarket has produced the nicest surface of the season so far for the juveniles. 

On the opening Tuesday, the EBF Novice Stakes went the way of Arran for . He was noticeably keen when racing at the head of affairs yet was still able to find plenty of reserves to repel the fast finishing The Actor. Given how exuberant he was in the early stages, his performance is worthy of an upgrade. The win also means that the Coles are now two from three this season with their two-year-olds. It may well pay to follow them in coming weeks as they clearly have their team of juveniles well-prepped.

I’m sure this is a race that will deliver a few winners. The Actor is of obvious interest given he took a while to understand what was expected of him in the closing stages and finished strongly once getting the message. He holds an entry at on Saturday.

Of more interest - and maybe slightly less obvious - is Al Qudra. A slow start meant that he was settled at the rear of the field (across the three days the advantage was with those ridden prominently) and he was asked to quicken while switching to his left around horses,. 

He rather got himself in a muddle, hanging left and changing leads a couple of times, yet once organised he showed the greater change of gear. I think he would be of real interest next time out.

The race to be leading first-season sire is always a fascinating one (and I'll be taking a more in-depth look at this year's contenders next week).

At a very early stage Sergei Prokofiev has made a tremendously strong start, managing an impressive four individual winners from from just six individual runners (seven runs).

Interestingly two of those winners have come in the colours of Amo Racing, who have enjoyed great success with their juveniles over the last few seasons..

The most impressive of them so far this term is . A winner in March at the Curragh on heavy ground, he travelled strongly and was last off the bridle by some distance. Jockey didn’t need to be overly strong on him to run out a 1¼-length winner. 

Out of Liberisque, a moderate ten-furlong winner with a peak rating of 54, Arizona Blaze shaped like he will stay further. Given how powerfully he travelled he perhaps didn’t quicken in the manner that might have been expected, but I would put that down to the testing conditions and I would expect a more electric performance on a better surface.

Connections won this race last year with subsequent Group One winner Bucanero Fuerte, and it’s not inconceivable that this son of Sergei Prokofiev is Group class too.

The stallion's next potential representative could well be Mythical Composer, who holds an entry at Leicester on Saturday. In the care of and a half-brother to Group Two-winning juvenile and smart sprinter Tis Marvelous, he could well be capable of upholding the excellent start his sire has made.