Juvenile Watch: a 20-1 wager for the 2000 Guineas

I was desperately hoping that the Darley Dewhurst Stakes would provide some clarity over the pecking order of the potential Classic contenders among the colts and I was sure that the winner would come from the three at the head of the market. But, not for the first time this season, the formbook got turned on his head. 

Gewan had been visually impressive when winning the Acomb at York, though I felt the form was shaky given strong favourite Distant Stormfailed to give his running. 

I’d felt justified in this opinion when he was a well beaten fourth on his next start in the Vintage Stakes at Doncaster, in what looked like only an average Group Two. 

Yet he looked an entirely different proposition back on a quicker surface on Saturday, travelling strongly and quickening up smartly when asked by James Doyle. 

He was ultimately a comfortable winner despite hanging away to his left in the closing stages. After the race his trainer, Andrew Balding, had no hesitation in comparing him to Chaldean who he trained to win this race in 2022 before going onto land the 2000 Guineas the following May. 

I can remember being underwhelmed by Chaldean’s performance in this race – an opinion which ultimately cost so me - so maybe I should learn my lesson, but again my feeling is that we will have watched a poor 2000 Guineas if Gewan were to emerge victorious next year. 

For the third time in succession Gstaad filled the runner-up birth in a Group One. He raced a little to exuberantly and he's going to need to learn to settle if he's going to stay a mile as a three-year-old. In many ways he reminds me of River Tiber - not quite quick enough for six furlongs but without the stamina for a mile. My inclination is that I'll be opposing him more often than not next season. 

Distant Storm was a shade disappointing back in third. Race IQ data reveals that he was a full second slower than the winner to reach 20mph and in a race where it paid to be prominently positioned this was to his disadvantage, though with a more prominent ride he may not have settled. 

More pertinent is that he didn't look to travel with his usual zest and it could be that trying to back up just two weeks after his win in the Tattersalls Stakes meant he wasn't quite at full force. 

I believe the bookmakers have overreacted by pushing his price out to 20-1 for the 2000 Guineas and I'm happy to have a small ante-post stake on him at what I think is a very fair each-way price, particularly given his trainer has said he will be trained for the race. 

Preciseproduced the performance of the meeting at Newmarket in the Fillies’ Mile, settling nicely, travelling with class and quickening up in the manner of a high-class filly. 

This perhaps was n0t the deepest of Group One contests, particularly given that her stablemate Composing was among several who appeared to not quite run to the level of form they had shown earlier in the season. 

However, this performance cemented the impression she made when winning the Moyglare and furthermore proved both her stamina for this trip and her ability to cope with the Newmarket dip. 

She deserves her place at the head of the market for next year's Betfred 1000 Guineas and the 4-1 is more than fair. 

I'm adding her to my ante-post position for the Guineas in addition to previous selection Touleen. 

Incidentally, Touleen disappointed in the Rockfel Stakes on her latest start, but she might just have a valid reason with trainer Owen Burrows reporting that her scope post-race was “filthy”, so don’t throw away that ante-post slip just yet! 

The Fillies’ Mile runner-up, Venetian Lace, has had an inconsistent season but showed her best form here. 

She's a difficult filly to assess, though it's worth noting that her trainer, Charlie Johnston, was critical of the ground and its description at Doncaster on her previous start, where she ran below par in the May Hill. 

Of all the juvenile races that were run at Newmarket, the Zetland is the one I would approach with the biggest degree of caution. 

It was run at no more than a muddling gallop before  the Aidan O'Brien-trained Pierre Bernard demonstrated a better turn of foot than his stable mate Endorsement in the closing stages. 

A son of Camelot, the winner is an impressive looking individual and he will surely start next season in a Derby trial. He falls in the “could be anything bracket” but I'm happy to wait until I’ve seen more before passing judgement. 

Racing away from the pace did not help my selection, Look To The Stars, but nevertheless he wasn't good enough and surprisingly didn't appear to appreciate the step up to this trip. 

Perhaps the horse to take from the race was the Richard Fahey-trained Mr Colonel, a stoutly bred son of Frankel. 

He pulled hard at the head of the affairs in the early stages before looking to lack a gear change at the crucial time but he was rallying well in the closing stages. 

A more truly run race would have suited him better and he's a colt I'll be keeping on side early next season. 

The Cornwallis was fought out between Beckford’s Folly and Brussels with the former prevailing in a head bobbing finish. 

In post-race interviews his trainer, Charlie Appleby, was keen to divert praise to his team, referencing that the son of Lope De Vega was far from easy at home. 

It was this temperamental streak that had been attributed to his poor performance in the Sirenia Stakes at Kempton on his previous start. 

In recent seasons, Godolphin have not hesitated to geld well-bred but problematic colts in a bid to find improved performance and that strategy appear to have pay dividends here, as he produced by someway a career best.  

However, he is not a horse to have maximum faith in next time, with his trainer also alluding to the fact that Newmarket suits him well as it is on his doorstep. As such,  he may well be a horse that will has the potential to disappoint. 

I wasn't sure that the drop back in trip would play to the strengths of Brussels, but he settled well and showed good pace, emerging from the race with credit. 

He has an imposing physique and will surely improve when developing more strength as a three year-old. He could take high order in a wide-open sprint division next season but, before that, could make a swift return over an extra furlong at Ascot on Saturday.  

Revival Power showed the best early speed and will be seen to better effect again when returned to a flat track. Given her connections the Nunthorpe at York will surely be on her radar next season.