Is Darkness Falls a Triple Crown contender at 80-1?

How many of next year’s British Classic winners have we seen over the past week?

The answer, of course, is anywhere between none and five. If you are glass half-empty, you might think “none”, pointing to recency bias and the fact that seven months of banana skins must be negotiated before you get to finer details like “training on” and “not really coming to him or herself”.

And you could also reasonably point to the same week last year to back up your argument, as Benvenuto Cellini, Diamond Necklace, Gstaad and Precise were all strutting their stuff. That quartet have all won Classics this year, just not those contested at Newmarket, Epsom and Doncaster.

But the glass half-full crew can indulge themselves in some extravagant early auditions and point to the ante-post markets, which suggest that since last Thursday  the winners of the 2000 Guineas, 1000 Guineas, Derby and Oaks may have been in action.

Desert Castle is clear favourite for the 2000 Guineas after his success in the Champagne Stakes on Saturday (and the next two in the market also ran over the weekend), while Sun Goddess and Musical Times dominate the betting for the 1000 Guineas after dishing out their respective drubbings.

Then there is Darkness Falls, out on his own at the top of the Derby market after his commanding victory at Leopardstown on Saturday.

He would no doubt be favourite for the St Leger, too, but the layers cannot be bothered to price that one up, even after Saffie Osborne giving the old race a mighty tonic.

For good measure, the first three in the Oaks betting are Musical Times, Green Empress and Maire Rua, who have all fallen under our gaze since last Thursday.

Let’s dig a little deeper and see if the RaceiQ data can help us determine whether we have being seeing pretenders or the genuine article. 

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. 1000 Guineas odds: 3-1 fav 

The gloom and doom merchants have been saying that Artificial Intelligence might wipe us all out in the next decade. 

Aidan O’Brien is campaigning Sun Goddess as if the end is nigh at any moment, having already given her seven races this campaign with maybe two more top-level assignments in the pipeline. Not that it usually pays to quibble with Aidan Intelligence.

That kind of campaigning with a two-year-old usually suggests connections believe they are a dealing with a horse for the here and now, rather than next year and beyond, although O’Brien’s past four 1000 Guineas winners have had eight races beforehand, and Homecoming Queen was having her 14th start when springing a 25-1 surprise in the 2012 edition. 

Sun Goddess routed the opposition in the Moyglare, beating a familiar foe in Green Empress by 6½ lengths.

It was difficult not to be impressed by the way she powered clear, with her closing sectionals of 11.25sec and 12.48sec being on a different plane to the opposition.

Her Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 105.55% was indicative of a steady overall pace, but only two horses managed higher figures on the card: two top-class older individuals in Thundering On and Jan Brueghel.

Her top speed of 40.23mph was second fastest among those runners at the meeting running over 7f or further. The only to be swifter was Thundering On, who clocked 40.54mph. For what it is worth, Comanche Brave was best of the 109 in action, hitting 42.33mph on his way to landing the Flying Five.

I’m not sure what she achieved in terms of form on the day and the winning time was nothing special, being 0.37sec slower than the RaceiQ Par, although a bit quicker than the National Stakes later in the afternoon. The handicapper takes a different view - she's been pushed up 5lb to 119.

The runner-up, bred for middle distances, was swamped for speed, while the others were going backwards by the finish.

Sun Goddess saw out the 7f well but achieved more, in terms of form and time, when previously landing the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes on faster ground over 6f at The Curragh.

That day the daughter of Sioux Nation won at the main expense of Folsom Blues, the subsequent National Stakes winner, and scored in a time 1.45sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par, with her average stride being 8.13 metres. On slower going over 7f on Sunday, that shrank to 7.37 metres.

She was 0.12sec quicker than Folsom Blues on Sunday, and 0.20sec quicker than him when they met. They carried the same weights each time.

O’Brien has not discounted running Sun Goddess in the Cheveley Park Stakes in a couple of weeks before a possible trip to the Breeders’ Cup.

He and Team Coolmore can play by different rules, of course, but I would not be in a hurry to back a filly at 3-1 for the Guineas after such a demanding schedule as a juvenile. Incidentally, none of his previous winners of the race have won more than three times beforehand. She’s up to five and counting.

And one other caveat for her supporters is that she’s been slow to get going the two times she has run in big fields. She was 15th fastest to reach 20mph when beaten by Libertango in the Albany at Royal Ascot (I’d fancy that filly to confirm the form in Cheveley Park provided there is a sound surface) and only 13th fastest when tackling much inferior rivals in the Sales’ race at York last month.

Whatever happens going forwards, the £120,000 paid for her at Goffs in late August of last year has proven to be an excellent bit of business. Her dam was unraced and neither of her siblings have won a race.

Trainer: Charlie Appleby. 1000 Guineas odds: 4-1. Oaks: 12-1 fav.

Musical Times got an immediate quote of 12-1 for the 1000 Guineas after trouncing the opposition in the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster on Thursday but by the time I thought “I’ll have some of that” and scrambled around accounts, her odds had shrunk to 6-1. Having missed the briefest of windows, I rejected the new offer. Now, she’s no bigger than 4-1. You know how it goes from here.

It's probably not taken a lot of cash for bookmakers to take evasive action and some will say her new odds are an over-reaction, but Charlie Appleby’s filly had the wow factor at Town Moor, looking out of the top drawer as she stormed 7½ lengths clear of Scommessa Sicura.

She looks to have serious prospects of emulating Desert Flower, who had a similar profile when landing the May Hill for the same team a couple of years ago before following up in the Fillies’ Mile and going on to Guineas glory.

Musical Times was a bit of a handful before the race, going to post in a red hood, but raced with tremendous efficiency once the gates opened, clocking Par furlongs the whole way under William Buick.

No blobs of blue (slow), no flashes of red (fast). Just Par, Par, Par repeat to fade, which sounds easy enough but takes some doing.

Breaking down the eight furlongs to individual races, she finished 84552711. It was the last quarter of a mile where she turned it on, being the only runner to dip under 12sec in the penultimate furlong (11.68sec) before being the only runner to dip under 13sec in the final furlong (12.23sec).

Her combined finish of 23.91sec was 1.24sec quicker than the next best, the 97-rated runner-up, who in common with all the other runners was very slow in those final 220 yards.

Scommessa Sicura had previously been flattered to get close to Musical Times at Newmarket in June, having been touched off by the tenacious Quest For Stars (since third to Darkness Falls at Leopardstown) at Salisbury on her previous start.

Musical Times’ FSP in the May Hill was 102.05% and she was the only horse able to run quicker than Par (101.83%).  The going was officially good to soft, and they were running into a headwind. This was a race with no extremes and as such looks a solid piece of form.

The RaceiQ database has 84 mile races at Doncaster for two-year-olds in its database and there are some superb winners in there, including subsequent Classic winners Auguste Rodin, Desert Flower, Kingston Hill,Magna Grecia, Saxon Warrior and Soul Sister, plus such as Hotazhell,Inspiral, Laurens and Luxembourg.

Musical Times clocked the ninth quickest time (97.58sec). The eight above her were all racing on good ground or firmer, so were racing on faster terrain.

In total, 25 of those 84 races were run on ground which was officially good to soft and Musical Times is No 1 in that category. Quicker than Magna Grecia (97.72sec). Quicker than Saxon Warrior (100.12sec). Quicker than Laurens (100.60sec).

The pace of races and tactics are obviously factors here, not to mention the going reports being accurate in the first place, but Magna Grecia was all out to prevail by a head; as was Saxon Warrior when fending off Roaring Lion; as was Laurens when prevailing in a blanket finish. By contrast, Musical Times was basically running against her own shadow for the final furlong.

Before lining up at Doncaster, the Lope De Vega filly had been nursed home when beating Scommessa Sicura on her debut at Newmarket in June before easily following up at Yarmouth a couple of weeks later.

She clocked a very fast final furlong of 12.12sec at Newmarket despite her jockey being at pains to give her a considerate introduction. And then, at Yarmouth, she flashed through the last two furlongs in a rapid 22.01sec, crossing the line hard held. That was a slow-run race but the speed she exhibited was still quite something.

Of 1,025 hores in the RaceiQ database to have run over 7f at the track, that is the second fastest final quarter of a mile.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Nightwalker, who went on to finish third to Delacroix in the Autumn Stakes on his next start, heads the list, being 0.10sec quicker two years ago. However, he was a colt and was carrying 2lb less.

Musical Times’ dam, Dubai Fountain, finished second in the May Hill in 2020 before being third in the Fillies’ Mile and winning the Cheshire Oaks on her return the following season. She went off 4-1 for the Oaks but trailed home twelfth, not convincing with her stamina on the big day or after.

Debate over whether Musical Times will stay the Oaks trip can wait for another day. At this stage, she looks a miler with bundles of speed, and in pole position to win next year’s 1000 Guineas.

Trainer: Charlie Appleby. 2000 Guineas odds: 6-1 fav. 

Charlie Appleby has landed the 2000 Guineas three times since 2022, plus had four others reach the frame in the same period. And in Desert Castle he has another tremendous prospect.

First things first, he’s a gorgeous stamp of a horse sired by Frankel out of the prolific Sand Vixen (herself by Dubawi). His two full brothers, the globetrotters Dream Castle and With The Moonlight, have proved well above average.

Desert Castle has already flown the flag for his family with distinction and gives the impression he could be the best of the bunch as he won the Champagne Stakes under Billy Loughnane with any amount in hand.

Tucked away last of the five runners, he got into a lovely rhythm and glided past his four rivals seemingly in second gear.

And he probably was, with his average stride of 7.61 metres propelling him along on the bridle. The runner-up, Sergei Diaghilev, averaged 6.95 and the 9.35% difference was also mirrored by their strides per second: the winner averaged 2.21; the runner-up 2.43. 

Desert Castle’s fast fifth furlong of 11.22sec under a motionless Loughnane took him past Silver Dominion and Breacher, and he followed that with a very fast penultimate furlong of 11.09sec to brush aside Gentle Hurricane and Sergei Diaghilev.

He hung a little left once hitting the front, as he had on his debut, but was again fastest in the final furlong, finishing off in 12.21sec under hands and heels.

The sectionals tell us he was fastest in furlongs four, six and seven, plus a whisker off being swiftest in the fifth. In what was a steadily run race, he had given four rivals officially rated between 100 and 106 a head start and a thumping.

Desert Castle had been similarly emphatic on his debut over 7f at Newmarket. They initially went quick through the first furlong that day but then handbrakes were applied and most of the field logged sluggish sectionals for the next three furlongs.

Desert Castle was fourth at this stage before Loughnane took a peak under the bonnet. His mount, responded with a fast fifth furlong of 10.98sec that took him into the lead and then he flashed all his potential with a very fast penultimate furlong of 10.88sec.

He would have been very fast in the last furlong, too, but for Loughnane easing down.

Bar his inclination to lean left, it’s been a flawless start by Desert Castle. Perhaps that’s immaturity, or a trait that will catch up with him one day.

Next month’s Dewhurst, when he will have to cope with the Dip and almost certainly a truer run race, will tell us more about just how high he can fly. 

Derby: 8-1 fav. 2000 Guineas odds: 16-1. St Leger: no odds but would be favourite. Triple Crown odds: 80-1 (William Hill).

Aidan O’Brien dropped a bit of a bombshell at The Curragh on Sunday when he revealed that his horses had been battling a low-grade virus at Ballydoyle for two months or more.

It didn’t stop him chalking up three more Group One victories via Darkness Falls, Sun Goddess and Scandinavia over the weekend, taking his overall tally of top-level winners this season to 18. He remains on course to beat the world record 28 he achieved in 2017, especially if the germs vanish.

It seems another issue facing messers Magnier, Tabor and Smith is naming conventions for their horses. Are they running out?

Scandinavia is their second Scandinavia (the original was second in the 2004 Royal Lodge) and Darkness Falls is their second Darkness Falls (the first one’s only win came in a Naas handicap).

The day we get another Yeats or So You Think, we know they will be in trouble.

Darkness Falls The II looked in complete working order as he crushed his eight rivals in the inaugural running of the nine-furlong HKJC World Pool Golden Fleece Stakes at Leopardstown on Saturday.

He officially won on good ground, but the times pointed strongly to the going being good to firm all afternoon.

Nevertheless, this was still the time performance of the day. The RaceiQ Time Index was 9.7, when the meeting average was 8.1. He won in a time 3.15sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par, which was based on the official good ground, but still would have been 1.71sec swifter had it been firmer.

Darkness Falls had romped home by seven lengths on easy ground in a mile maiden at The Curragh on his previous start and the market forewarned that we were in for a dominant display as he was a heavily backed Evens favourite.

As in his first two starts, he showed great gate speed (first to 20mph in 2.36sec) but Ryan Moore was happy to take a pull and sit fifth as Victory Speech and Nola Soul set overly strong fractions at the head of affairs.

It was only in the last quarter of a mile that Moore asked the Camelot colt to unwind and the response was impressive with his final two splits being 11.95sec and 12.67sec. His last furlong was his strongest, being at least 0.44sec quicker than anything else.

Seven of his rivals lined up with ratings between 99 and 106. None of those got within seven lengths of him.

As a consequence, Darkness Falls is already up to 118, the same rating rating that City Of Troy was on after his first three races.

His mark is 1lb higher than High Chaparral and Auguste Rodin before their respective Derby victories for O'Brien, and only 1lb less than Australia. Four of O’Brien’s winners have lined up at Epsom with a rating of just 109, while Serpentine would have been even lower had he been allotted a mark.

This was a potent display of stamina and speed, and it will be a surprise if a two-year-old capable of winning a fast-run race over nine furlongs in such commanding style is not fully effective over the Derby trip next year.

If you want to nitpick, he’s not the owner of an outlandish stride, like several recent Derby winners, although his average was a satisfactory 7.39 metres. 

Of 109 runners in action at Leopardstown, that was 23rd  best (our old friend Nola Soul was top with 7.75 metres but needs to calm down/be ridden less aggressively).

Darkness Falls'  minimum stride frequency was 2.17 and maximum 2.33. On paper, with 12 furlongs in mind, you would prefer him to be closer to Nola Soul's 2.05 and 2.25, but that is offset by his relaxed style of racing.

It could be he is something of a perfect storm – inheriting the stamina of his sire as well as all the speed on the distaff side of his pedigree (he’s out of sprinter You’resobeautiful, herself sired by pace ace No Nay Never).

Five of O’Brien’s 12 Derby winners have run in the 2000 Guineas beforehand. It will be interesting to see how Darkness Falls is campaigned with the stable not yet having any outstanding candidates for the first Classic of next season.

Could they even view him as a Triple Crown candidate and give him the chance to put the record straight for his sire? Paddy Power offer 66-1, while William Hill are more cavalier and go 80-1. That latter price is too big to resist.

The assumption seems to be that he will just be trained for the Derby, but why wouldn’t they go for the Guineas first? The worst-case scenario is that he gets beaten, but that did not do Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy any harm.

Team Coolmore have long craved a Triple Crown horse, one who could emulate Nijinsky. Camelot came close; Saxon Warrior offered hope but went down in Leg 2; Auguste Rodin was touted for it but tripped up in Leg 1. Watch this space (not a bad name for a horse, by the way).

Ante-post play: back Darkness Falls to achieve the Triple Crown at 80-1 with William Hill.