2024 My Pension Expert July Cup: runner-by-runner guide and tip

The My Pension Expert July Cup takes centre stage on day three of Newmarket's July Festival on Saturday, and 12 have been declared for the Group One showpiece. 

Commonwealth Cup winner

Inisherin

heads the betting at a general 9-4, and with the older crop of sprinters not setting an above-average standard, the door is open for a three-year-old to become the standout sprinter.

The three-year-olds will also receive 6lb from their older rivals here, which is a sizeable advantage, and it's no surprise to see Inisherin,

Vandeek

and

River Tiber

dominating the market, while has also attracted some support. 

Interestingly, 14 of the past 15 winners of this race were aged 3 or 4, and Slade Power (2014) was the last winner aged above four.

The ground is going to play a big factor in the result here, too, with plenty of the contenders needing either give underfoot, or fast ground, to produce their best.

At the time of writing (Monday afternoon), the ground is good to soft, good in places following 21mm of rain across Friday and Saturday last week. Between 8-10mm of rain is forecast on Tuesday, but only sporadic light showers for the rest of the week, so it's wise to think the ground will have dried out by Saturday. 

Here's a guide to all the contenders and a verdict.

Trainer: Tim Easterby. Best odds: 50-1.

Gained a deserved Group One victory at the fifteenth attempt in the QIPCO British Champions Sprint last year and has finished fourth in the past two renewals of the July Cup. 

Ran well on his first two starts this season, including when fourth behind in the Greenlands Stakes, but was not seen to best effect at Royal Ascot last time out. 

Tim Easterby’s stable stalwart is best suited by good or softer ground, so his latest effort should be forgiven (he disappointed in the same race last year before running well in this), although won’t want the ground to dry out too much. 

Has the ability to go close again, but the percentage call is to look elsewhere for win purposes, especially as he’s vulnerable to an improver. 

Trainer: Charles Hills. Best odds: 25-1.

A very talented sprinter when things fall right, and the admirable eight-year-old finished fourth in this race four years ago, and fifth in 2023. 

Recorded a shock victory in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes last year, his first Group One victory, and repeated the feat again when last seen at Royal Ascot. 

Although he has run respectably in other Group Ones away from Ascot, that course and distance clearly brings out the best in him, and it is for that reason he’s probably a shade vulnerable here. 

Fast ground is also key to him, so he’s another who needs the conditions to dry out.

Trainer: Ralph Beckett. Best odds: 7-1.

Dual Group One winner who was a shade unlucky not to add to that tally in the Prix de la Foret last year, and ended another productive campaign with a narrow second in the QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes.

Made his belated return to action with an eye-catching effort in the Chipchase Stakes a fortnight ago where he hit the front before being collared late on, and that outing was undoubtedly a stepping stone to bigger targets.

He's a seven-year-old now, so has to prove he's still as good as ever at this age, and his chance will depend upon the ground conditions as Ralph Beckett's charge is at his very best with give underfoot. 

If Kinross takes his chance here (connections have said he could bypass the race if the going isn't suitable, and if he hasn't recovered from his Newcastle exertions), then an each-way case can be made for him based upon his best efforts, and he wasn't beaten far when third in this contest last year.

Trainer: Jane Chapple-Hyam. Best odds: 16-1.

Has been a consistent performer over the past couple of seasons and progressed from handicap to Group company last year.

Received a wind op at the end of last season and produced a career best to win the Duke Of York two starts ago where he had race fitness on his side against some key rivals who were making their return to action.

Struggled in Group One company last season, but his third in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes behind Khaadem last time out suggests he's improved further this year.

That form does give him a small each-way squeak, and he's twice run well over this course and distance, but he'll need to find further improvement to get his head in front.

Trainer: Charles Hills. Best odds: 33-1.

Appears to have improved again since joining the Charles Hills team based upon his career-best effort to win the Greenlands Stakes in May where he defeated (who lacked race fitness), and Art Power finished fourth.

That form has been franked a couple of times since, too, and Mitbaahy produced a potent turn of foot to score. However, he's failed to sparkle in three attempts at Group One level now, including when seventh in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes when last seen.

Admittedly, he probably found the ground too quick at Ascot (his rider reported that afterwards) and while he's run well on good to firm in the past, he does prefer some ease underfoot, so won't want conditions to dry out too much.

This five-year-old is a hold-up performer who likes to come from off the pace, so will need everything to fall right here,  and he still needs to prove he's capable of being competitive at this level, so it's probably best to look elsewhere.

Trainer: Ed Bethell. Best odds: 8-1.

Progressed into a smart handicapper in 2022 but has taken his form to another level over the past couple of seasons, and after finishing fifth in last year’s Nunthorpe following his first Listed victory, Ed Bethell’s sprinter gained Group One glory in the Sprint Cup at Haydock. 

It was easy to say that was a sub-standard Sprint Cup due to Shaquille running below par (and the second and third returned at huge odds), although numerous contenders have run well in Group One company since, and Regional went close to recording another success at this level when second in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out.

The six-year-old appeared to lead his group on the stands’ side at a decent pace and just couldn’t go with the winner, Asfoora, at a crucial stage, but stayed on under pressure which hinted a step back up to six furlongs will suit.

That was arguably a career-best effort, and his prominent style of racing should suit this course. There’s also a good chance conditions will dry out ahead of Saturday, which will be a big positive for Regional who relishes fast ground, and he looks sure to be involved in the finish.

Trainer: Karl Burke. Best odds: 50-1.

An overall consistent performer in Group race sprints and her form figures at the highest level now read 403442.

She arrives here on the back of a career-best effort behind Khaadem in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, and she set some decent fractions from the front there, which helped set the race up for the winner.

Her style of racing will be an advantage here and she finished a close-up fourth behind Regional in last year's Sprint Cup, an effort which can be upgraded given she raced alone up the stands' rail.

Karl Burke's filly relishes good and good to firm ground, so conditions are set to be in her favour, and her handler remains in red-hot form. 

There are plenty of positives, so she looks a shade over-priced at the general 25-1 on offer, despite the fact she has a bit to find with some of these on official ratings.

Trainer: Charlie Fellowes. Best odds: 66-1.

Hasn't won for over a year now and even her best form leaves her with a good deal to find with the leading protagonists here. 

She also needs soft ground to show her true colours, and it doesn't look like she'll get her favoured conditions on Saturday, unless the weather forecast changes! 

This six-year-old could only manage seventh of eight in the July Cup last year, and it's easy enough to look elsewhere.

Trainer: . Best odds: 9-4.

Rapidly-improving three-year-old who justified the confidence his connections have in him by winning the Commonwealth Cup in superb style after being supplemented for £46,000. 

He travelled powerfully en route to Royal Ascot glory, and it was a similar scenario when he bolted up in the Sandy Lane (Vandeek third) on soft ground on his previous outing. 

Kevin Ryan’s youngster didn’t appear to stay a mile on his return in the 2000 Guineas, despite winning over that trip as a two-year-old and looks an out and out sprinter. 

One slight niggle is that the Commonwealth Cup didn’t appear the strongest renewal on paper, with Elite Status, and Bucanero Fuerte all ruled out. Inisherin was a dominant winner, though, and had the race won a long way from home. 

He’s only had five starts, so should have lots more to offer this season, and he doesn’t appear ground dependant, so there’s plenty to like about his chances. 

Trainer: Clive Cox. Best odds: 14-1.

Has always been held in high regard by Clive Cox and impressed over this course and distance when landing the July Stakes last year. 

The three-year-old wasn’t seen to best effect when disappointing on his next two outings at Group One level, though, and his tendency to race keenly held him back, so had a bit to prove this season. 

Cox advised Jasour had grown up a lot over the winter ahead of his return in the Commonwealth Cup Trial, and his charge ran out an impressive winner of the Group Three contest where he settled better than he had done previously. 

He was withdrawn from the Sandy Lane on his next intended outing due to soft ground, so went to Royal Ascot fresh, and despite pulling hard early, he managed to finish third behind Inisherin. 

That leaves him with a bit to find with the favourite and his keenness remains a concern. He’ll also need the ground to dry out to be seen to best effect, and a good chunk of improvement is required to score here.

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Best odds: 7-1.

Won his first three starts as a two-year-old, and was placed in two Group One contests (behind Vandeek in both the Middle Park and the Prix Morny) after winning the Coventry Stakes. 

The Wootton Bassett colt was stepped up to a mile for his seasonal debut this year in the Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas and was not beaten far by Rosallion and Haatem there, which is strong form considering he also pulled nicely clear of the fourth.

There's no obvious excuse, but his run in the Jersey Stakes behind Haatem last time out was too bad to be true considering how close he'd finished to that rival on his previous outing, and his finishing effort was tame.

He's always been held in high regard by Aidan O'Brien, and it is interesting connections have decided to drop him back down to six furlongs now. 

I expect we haven't seen the best of him yet, and he receives a handy weight allowance here, but he does have a bit to prove now following his Royal Ascot effort.

Trainer: Simon and Ed Crisford. Best odds: 5-1.

Won all four of his starts as a two-year-old, which included two Group One victories in the Prix Morny and the Middle Park and looked a potential superstar heading into this season. 

It was therefore a major disappointment he could only manage third in the Sandy Lane on his reappearance where he raced exuberantly and appeared to get tired late on against horses who all had the benefit of a recent run. 

No major excuse emerged following that defeat, and it was probably just a lack of race fitness and his early keenness on soft ground that caused his undoing. 

The winner, Inisherin, franked the form by winning the Commonwealth Cup impressively next time out, and Vandeek was expected to get a lot closer to that rival at Royal Ascot, but was ruled out due to an abnormal blood count. 

That setback is, of course, a concern, and Vandeek needs to bounce back to form here. However, this son of Havana Grey impressed during a workout on Monday morning on the summer gallop at Newmarket, and the vibes from his connections afterwards were extremely positive. 

After a quiet period in June, the Crisford team are firing on all cylinders now, and if their charge is back to his best now, then a big run is expected. 

A fascinating renewal of the My Pension Expert July Cup. Impressive Commonwealth Cup winner Inisherin is a worthy favourite given he’s in receipt of weight from the older contenders and this will be just his sixth start, so further improvement is expected, and there doesn’t appear to be too many chinks in his armour. 

The general 9-4 on offer does look short enough, though, as a case can be made for several of the other contenders, and I'd rather side with a contender each-way.

Vandeek looked high class last season but arrives here with something to prove, as does River Tiber, and although Kinross is a classy performer, the ground conditions probably won’t be ideal for him or Art Power.

Khaadem saves his best for Ascot, and Swingalong keeps finding one or two too good at this level, but is arguably a shade over-priced based upon her efforts in Group One contests, especially as she should be suited by this test.

However, preference is for REGIONAL who caught the eye over the minimum trip at Royal Ascot and should relish an extra furlong here. 

He showed a good attitude to win the Sprint Cup last season and his effort in the King Charles III Stakes was a career best based upon the figures he produced. He appears a solid each-way play at the 9-1 on offer.

The rest will need to raise their game to claim Group One glory here.