How To Bet Your £20 on Saturday: Warrior can power to Guineas win

Andy Stephens advised backing bet365 Gold Cup winner Step Back at 12-1 last Saturday and has six more fancies for this weekend.

Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore have spent the past two decades pushing the boundaries but this weekend could be on another scale.

O’Brien will field the favourite for the 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas but the 48-year-old has even bigger fish to fry because in between the QIPCO-sponsored Classics he will attempt to become the first European-based trainer to scoop the Kentucky Derby with Mendelssohn on Saturday night.

The master of Ballydoyle has won just about every big race that Europe has to offer - his haul of 28 British Classics include six Derby triumphs and a record-breaking eight 2000 Guineas wins - and his global exploits include him saddling the first three home in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in 2016 plus being the most successful European trainer at the Breeders’ Cup.

But victory in the 144th Kentucky Derby would be a landmark moment in the history of the sport and the pinnacle of his career - not to mention another potential game changer for Coolmore’s breeding empire.

O’Brien’s five previous runners in the Run For The Roses have failed to make an impact but Mendelssohn is bred to be a champion on dirt and his demolition job in the UAE Derby suggests the most expensive yearling sold anywhere in the world in 2016 is on a different level to his previous challengers.

By all accounts there is great strength in depth to the home team - I do not profess to follow American form; it is hard enough keeping tabs on all the domestic stuff - and so I will be an ardent observer rather than punter on Saturday evening as the clock ticks towards midnight.

There are some interesting bets to be had on home soil, starting with:

1.50 Newmarket - Breden at 20-1 with Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power:

The 3-1 favourite Sharja Bridge looks plenty short enough for all his potential and the pair who caught my eye at double-figure prices are Brorocco and Breden, with the latter getting the nod at 20-1.

He is lightly raced for an eight-year-old and was an unlucky loser on his return at Lingfield after wind surgery, while his record at Newmarket reads 114 - being beaten about a length on the latter occasion in November when he did not enjoy the rub of the green.

Breden is in his element when pouncing off a decent gallop and he should get a decent tow into the race with front-running Trulee Scrumptious drawn nearby.

Look out for Hayley Turner smuggling him to the front in the closing stages.

2.20 Newmarket - Mabs Cross at 5-1 with Betfair and Paddy Power:

Front-running Havana Grey was among last year’s top juvenile sprinters but this is never an easy time of the year for three-year-olds to mix it with their elders and he will have competition for the lead with Ornate and Alpha Delphini in opposition.

The race could be set up for something sitting off the pace and Mabs Cross fits the bill. She has been brought along with typical small steps by Michael Dods and while it seems fanciful to think he has another Mecca’s Angel on his hands there are similarities.

She thrived on her racing last season and was desperately unlucky not to extend her winning sequence in a Listed contest on her return at Bath. That at least confirms she has returned in good heart and should have put her spot on for this.

3.35 Newmarket - Saxon Warrior at a generally available 4-1:

Are you with Aidan O’Brien in his quest to win a ninth 2000 Guineas? Or against? The betting indicates it is a toss-of-the-coin job as it is just about Evens that either Gustav Klimt, Saxon Warrior or Murillo prevail.

I fancy O’Brien will be celebrating again because this kind of test may come a bit early for Elarqam, while Masar looked very much primed for the Craven and, just 16 days later, may recoil.

The betting relays that Gustav Klimt is O’Brien’s principal challenger but Saxon Warrior, the only Group One winner in the line-up, has been flawless and showed an excellent attitude when landing the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster in October.

It could be a mile is now on the sharp side for the general 4-1 chance but O’Brien/Coolmore are brilliant at getting the tactics right and I would imagine Murillo is in the field to ensure there is no dawdling.

8.20 Doncaster - Rayna’s World:

If my punting on Saturday afternoon goes astray then I will be looking to get out of trouble with Rayna’s World in the evening as I wait for the Kentucky Derby.

She has a progressive profile and after a near-miss on her return at Doncaster she went one better in decisive style when stepped up in distance at Leicester.

Rayna’s World has to cope with another 5lb rise but she has a most likeable way of going about her work and is clearly at home on testing ground.

Sunday, 3.35 Newmarket - Liquid Amber at 14-1 with William Hill:

The three Group One winners in the QIPCO 1000 Guineas field - Happily, Laurens and Wild Illusion - make more appeal than the winners of the trials this spring.

Happily stands out on form and will no doubt take some stopping but the 14-1 on offer about Liquid Amber is too big to resist - she was 20-1 on Friday afternoon.

She was strong at the finish when winning a Group Three contest in emphatic style at the Curragh in August and, while the form subsequently took some knocks, it is worth noting she clocked a time about a second quicker than Saxon Warrior did over the same course and distance half an hour earlier on the card.

Andy Stephens' How To Bet Your £20 on Saturday:

OPTION ONE:

1.50 Newmarket: Breden £2 each-way at 20-1

2.20 Newmarket: Mabs Cross £5 win at 5-1

3.35 Newmarket: Saxon Warrior £3.50 win at 4-1

8.20 Doncaster: Rayna’s World £3.50 win at SP

Sunday 3.35 Newmarket: Liquid Amber £2 each-way at 14-1

OPTION TWO:

£2 win doubles and a £2 win treble

2.20 Newmarket: Mabs Cross

3.35 Newmarket: Saxon Warrior

8.20 Doncaster: Rayna’s World

OPTION THREE:

45p win Win Super Yankee and 15p each-way accumulator, above trio plus

1.50 Newmarket: Breden

Sunday, 3.35 Newmarket: Liquid Amber