How To Bet £20 on Saturday: watch out for Nicholls battalion

Paul Nicholls had a spectacular 45,863-1 eight-timer on this day five years ago and the champion trainer perhaps has designs on something similar on Saturday as he will be sending out a power-packed squad.

Plenty of his 14 runners are on my radar, especially Threeunderthrufive, who contests the £100,000 Injured Jockeys Fund Ambassadors Programme Swinley Handicap Chase (3.00) at Ascot. 

Threeunderthrufive has gone two years without a win since his prolific time as a novice chaser but he’s been hard to fault since being equipped with cheekpieces at the end of last season and can gain overdue reward. 

He signed off last term by finishing a close fourth in the Scottish Grand National and began this campaign by finishing runner-up in the Badger Beer before splitting Broadway Boy and Protektorat in another competitive contest at Cheltenham.

The nine-year-old has been nudged up an aggregate of 5lb for those efforts but his connections cannot grumble, plus he’s had two months to recharge his batteries and has ground conditions (not too deep) to his liking.

You can pick holes in most of the opposition, including Victtorino, the favourite, even though he has already scooped two valuable prizes at Ascot this term. 

His jumping let him down off his new mark at Cheltenham three weeks ago and the Venetia Williams stable has hit a dip after carrying all before it in November and December, when 35 winners were achieved from 116 runners. Williams has had just five victories from 71 runners since January, hitting the target with just one of her past 37 challengers. Ten of those beaten during this time have been beaten at 7/2 or shorter.

Cheltenham Gold Cup hope L'Homme Presse, odds-on for the day’s biggest race, the Betfair Ascot Chase (3.36), was among her handful of winners last month, although I was a little underwhelmed with his comeback defeat of Protektorat at Lingfield given his compelling record when fresh and that he was favoured by the weights.

Regardless of recent stable stats, which may be a red herring, he has the dreaded bounce factor to overcome as he was returning from 13 months off through injury that day.

The Nicholls-trained Pic D’Orhy looks the one runner in the field guaranteed to give his running, and that may be enough for him to prevail, but I can’t resist risking Ahoy Senor at the 11/2 on offer.

This high-class chaser is always prone to blundering away his chance but dropping him back in distance will at least mean he has fewer fences to negotiate! I think he’s got the pace to deal with the shorter trip and he would surely have gone close to winning the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham last time had his rider’s stirrup not snapped four fences from home. 

The RaceiQ data reveals he jumped best on that occasion despite the tack issue (he is capable of some prodigious leaps when keeping his focus) and, tellingly, that his speed recovery time after the final fence, when his jockey was briefly left hanging on to his neck, was 3.37sec. By way of comparison, the winner, Capodanno, had a recovery time of 0.5sec.

Ahoy Senor won’t have too many distractions with only three rivals in opposition, and it’s probably no coincidence he is a perfect 3/3 when featuring in previous four-runner contests (all of them Grade One or Grade Two affairs). This will be his first look at Ascot, a track that takes some leaping, but his tendency to jump right means it might be what he has wanted all along.

Lucinda Russell’s charge is still only nine and, if he can keep errors to a minimum, is overpriced to avenge the defeat that L’Homme Presse inflicted on him in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham two years ago.

I also like the prospects of Apple Away, his stablemate, in the Sodexo Live! Reynoldstown Novices' Chase but she’s not been missed in the betting (1.50).

At Haydock, the Gavin Cromwell-trained Yeah Man has plenty going for him in the Virgin Bet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase.

I outlined a case for backing him at 10/1 at the start of the week in an ante-post column and am surprised he’s only two points shorter, having been confirmed for the race and with a big threat, Guetapan Collonges, taken out.

Moreover, Cromwell is equipping Yeah Man with cheekpieces. At the risk of boring regular followers (hi Mum, and Chris who lives in Birmingham!) first-time headgear in these big long-distance staying chases can be golden, with the latest example being Inis Oirr in the Edinburgh National a fortnight ago.

My other main fancy on the card is Red Risk in the Virgin Bet Rendlesham Hurdle (2.40).

Like his siblings, and just about all of the offspring of No Risk At All, this nine-year-old copes well with deep ground. It was just over a year ago that he made a valiant bid to concede 12lb to West Balboa in the Lanzarote Hurdle on desperate going at Kempton. Conditions were so tough that day that only four of the 20 runners completed.

Red Risk has finished behind Botox Has in both his races this term, upped to 3m, but there’s every reason to believe he can turn the tables on these terms with the ground also loading the dice in his favour. The progressive novice, Butch, may pose an even bigger threat, but he’s got to improve another chunk at the weights.

At Wincanton, Nemean Lion makes plenty of appeal in the Jennings Bet Kingwell Hurdle (2.05), although the 4/1 on offer on Thursday morning has shrunk to 5/2.

His form over the past 15 months is tremendously solid and he might well have won the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton last time but for a late error. Before that, he’d been a valiant fifth under 12st in a Greatwood Hurdle that could hardly be working our better.

Rubaud and Colonel Mustard head the betting, but the former faces no easy task conceding 3lb on ground that won’t play to his strengths, while the latter generally finds a way to get beat. First-time blinkers look something of an act of desperation for Goshen, a two-time winner of this race who has lost his way, while Guard Your Dreams still has to prove he’s the horse he once was after injury.

Finally, look out for Kit’s Coty on her handicap bow in the Phil Harris Memorial  Hurdle (4.50).

She’s made a promising start over hurdles and was in control some way out when winning at Hereford last time. The overall form of that race is modest and has no doubt been a factor in the handicapper allotting Kit’s Coty an opening mark of 105.

However, she’s bred to be much better than that – she’s a sister of multiple Grade One winner Galop Marin, and a half-sister to the useful Gaelic Arc – and the race that interests me, in terms of her rating, is her hurdling bow at Ludlow where she was travelling like a winner only to suffer a luckless exit (a rival jockey ended up on top of her!) turning into the straight.

The eventual winner of the race, Victoria Milano, has won again since and is rated 119, while the third and fourth are rated 109 and 110. The seventh home has won since and is on 111. That all points to Kit’s Coty having got in lightly and she’s almost certainly capable of better yet. Zonda is the obvious danger.

2.05 Wincanton: Nemean Lion £3 win at at general 5/2 

2.40 Haydock: Red Risk £3 win at 7/2 with William Hill 

3.00 Ascot: Threeunderthrufive £5 win at a general 4/1 

3.15 Haydock: £3.50 win on Yeah Man at 15/2 with bet365 

3.36 Ascot: Ahoy Senor £2.50 win at 11/2 with bet365 and William Hill 

4.50 Wincanton: Kit’s Coty £3 win at 100/30 with bet365

35p Win Heinz (costing £19.95). General odds in brackets as a guide 

2.05 Wincanton: Nemean Lion (5/2) 

2.40 Haydock: Red Risk (3/1) 

3.00 Ascot: Threeunderthrufive (4/1) 

3.15 Haydock: Yeah Man (13/2) 

3.36 Ascot: Ahoy Senor (11/2) 

4.50 Wincanton: Kit’s Coty  (100/30)