How To Bet £20 on Thursday: 40-1 chance worth second look

The ground at Cheltenham is nothing like as soft as it was 12 months ago and that surely makes Teahupoo vulnerable for the defence of his crown in the Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle on Thursday.

His three worst performances have come with the word “good” in the going description and, while clearly at a class edge, he looks one to swerve at a best price of 6-4.

One who will not mind the prevailing conditions is Home By The Lee, who has looked better than ever this season for a trainer, Joseph O’Brien, who has the happy knack of having his horses in prime shape for Cheltenham. 

I’d imagine plenty will dismiss him on the grounds that he is a ten-year-old who has been beaten in the past three editions of the race, but you could argue he was an unlucky loser in 2023, when a blunder at the sixth put him on the backfoot, and he was not helped by untimely errors 12 months ago, either. 

He is a sound jumper, overall, and his successive wins in the Lismullen Hurdle and Savills Hurdle – each time at the main expense of Bob Olinger – means his official rating has never been higher, and only 3lb off Teahupoo. 

I was also half-interested in Crambo at 28-1 on the better ground, but the two-time Long Walk Hurdle winner has yet to prove his effectiveness at Cheltenham, for all you can make half-excuses for his two previous below-par runs at the track. 

Fact To File is a hot favourite for the Ryanair Chase dropping back in trip, but it was disappointing that he surrendered second place to Grangeclare West (has since run poorly) in a slow-run Irish Gold Cup last time, and I just wonder whether he will relish a scrap up the hill. 

I cannot be with the brilliant but flawed Il Est Francais, either, because of his previous bleeding issues, while the drying ground will not help defending champ Protektorat. Those three are all rated 166, as is Djelo, who represents a yard going through a lean patch. 

In the circumstances, the value play looks Envoi Allen, who is a general 16-1 chance to secure a fourth Festival triumph. 

He was a brilliant winner of this race two years ago and looked like retaining his crown most of the way last year, only for Protektorat to run the finish out of him on the testing ground. 

At 11, age is against him, but he looked as good as ever when winning on his return at Down Royal and he will arrive fresh after again failing to fire in the King George. 

The best bet of the day could be Manothepeople, quoted at 40-1 to give Fergal O’Brien a cherished first Festival success by landing the closing Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase. 

His record is a little patchy, but he was an emphatic winner on the New Course at Cheltenham last spring, when providing Paddy Brennan with a farewell success, and he showed plenty of dash in the Edinburgh National over 4m at Musselburgh last time before palpably not getting home. 

He's only 5lb higher than for that win here in the spring will get plenty of assistance from the saddle, with Gina Andrews booked. 

Harbour Lake is another who appeals at chunky odds in the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle. 

This Alan King-trained nine-year-old remains unexposed given a thorough test, is proven at the track and impressed when winning on his return at Aintree in November. 

He qualified for the race at Market Rasen 18 days later and was then promptly put away, which looks a shrewd move given he has a tremendous record when fresh. With the layers offering extra places, he looks a decent each-way wager. 

My other fancies are single-figure prices. The logic is outlined in the video tips below. 

1.20 Sixandahalf £3 win at a general 100-30 

2.00 Firefox £1.50 each-way at a general 8-1 

2.40 Harbour Lake £2 each-way at a general 20-1 

3.20 Envoi Allen £1 each-way at a general 16-1 

4.00 Home By The Lee £2.50 win at a general 6-1 

4.40 Jagwar £1.50 win at a general 4-1 

5.20 Manothepeople £2 each-way at a general 40-1 

LEG ONE: Sixandahalf 

LEG TWO: Firefox (2) and Asian Master (6) 

LEG THREE:  Harbour Lake (5) and Win Some Lose Some (4) 

LEG FOUR: Envoi Allen (2) and Protektorat (9) 

LEG FIVE: Home By The Lee (7) and The Wallpark (15) 

LEG SIX: Jagwar (13)