How To Bet £20 on Saturday: Jury gets verdict at 28-1

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is the feature race at Cheltenham on Saturday but it’s the Debenhams Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase (1.10) that may offer the best bet of the day.

Hung Jury has been trimmed to 28-1 from 40-1 since the final declarations on Thursday but could still be wildly overpriced if managing to find any kind of rhythm with his jumping.

Admittedly, that’s a big “if” because he usually has two ways of getting from A to B. Slowly, or very slowly.

He was again careful and ponderous in a similar race here last month, when RaceiQ awarded him an overall Jump Index score of 5.7 and calculated he lost 27.36 lengths over his obstacles. By contrast, three of the first five home gained at least 13 lengths, meaning a swing of at least 40 lengths.

In the circumstances, the steady-as-we-go Hung Jury performed wonders to keep on stoutly and be beaten 12½ lengths into eighth. Nothing in the field was faster than him through the final furlong, which was some effort given the amount of hard work he had put in negotiating the 20 fences.

The much wetter ground should work to his advantage because he stays forever, as he showed when winning a hunters’ chase over an extended 4m at Cheltenham in May. The winning time was 8min 34sec and it was probably no coincidence that trundling along at a more sedate pace helped the Martin Keighley-trained ten-year-old jump better. He gained 8.53 lengths in the air that day and got a Jump Index score of 7.4.

Hung Jury will also have a much more experienced rider on this occasion in James King, who guided him to a point-to-point success on soft going at Chaddesley Corbett a couple of years ago when last aboard him. The combination had the 142-rated One For Rosie more than ten lengths back in third that day on level terms, with the 130-rated Forest Chimes beaten 30 lengths into fourth. Meanwhile, Hung Jury has slipped to 122 in the ratings after his latest spin.

You might want to watch how he fares from behind a sofa, but if Hung Jury can manage to keep tabs on the opposition in the first half of the race, then he may just be able to grind out a win in the second half of what seems sure to be an attritional contest.

Meanwhile, Jagwar has been the long-time favourite for the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20) but I doubt his connections had calculated he would have to hump 12st on saturated ground when pencilling him in for his comeback in what is always one of the most anticipated handicaps of the season.

His official rating of 148 would not normally see him having to try and concede weight all round, with none of the past 18 top weights in the race having a mark lower than 152.

Half of those had a rating between 159 and 170, which tells you that this edition is lacking a bit of star quality. A mark of 148 in last year’s race would have warranted a weight of 10st 9lb.

No horse has carried 12st or more to victory since the outstanding Dunkirk defied 12st 7lb in 1965, having won the Champion Chase by 20 lengths earlier in the year. Jagwar also won at the Festival in the spring, although his success came in the Plate in gritty fashion off a mark of 139.

He's one of the few in the field open to more more improvement but a 9lb rise, coupled with his lack of a recent run, means he could be vulnerable on this occasion, not least because he’s a big unit who must take a bit of getting fit.

I’m going to split my stakes on the Plate runner-up, The Companysergeant, and Hoe Joly Smoke, one of three runners in the race for Dan Skelton.

The Companysergeant made Jagwar pull out all the stops in March and is 4lb better off but, perhaps more significant, he’s at home in the mud and will arrive race fit after finishing sixth in the Kerry National at the end of September.

He didn’t seem to stay 3m that day after moving strongly for a long way, plus was not helped by some scruffy jumping, with RaceiQ revealing he lost the best part of five lengths with his leaping.

The eight-year-old is going to have to jump better but I imagine Keith Donoghue will have learnt plenty about him at Listowel, when partnering him for the first time, and in any case, it could be the runners go a stride slower on the deeper ground, giving him more time to measure his obstacles.

Also, he jumped fine at Cheltenham in March when he got a RaceiQ Jump Index score of 7.4 and gained 5.57 lengths despite a costly bungle at the first fence when he slowed by 8.39mph. Jagwar took the best part of four lengths off him there and ended up winning by less than three.

Dan Skelton has made no secret of the fact that this has been the plan for Party Attack since the summer and good luck to you if you are sitting on a fancy price about a mare who has run only once over fences in the past two years. There is not much juice left in her price now at about 6-1.

Skelton did not have this contest on Hoe Joly Smoke’s initial agenda, but he demands attention after his close third to Three Card Brag over 3m 1f at Cheltenham last month, when he faded late on after tanking through the race.

It could be the seven-year-old, who has bled in the past, is never going to be the strongest finisher regardless of the trip he runs over, but we are getting 14-1 to find out, with the 25-1 on offer at the start of the week having vanished.

He is a superb jumper, gaining an aggregate of 70 lengths in his past eight races, and I imagine Kielan Woods will sit out the rear on him and hope the others come back to him.

Do not expect Sam Twiston-Davies to adopt such tactics on front-running Burdett Road, who looks overpriced at 11-2 to win on his debut over fences in the Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices' Chase (1.40).

The James Owen-trained five-year-old was the best of these six runners over hurdles and has excelled at Cheltenham in the past, winning at this meeting for the past two years and beating all bar Golden Ace in an eventful Champion Hurdle in March. He would have given the winner more to think about that day but for being badly hampered at the final flight.

He gave 3lb and a beating to Be Aware in the Greatwood Hurdle 12 months ago, yet is a much bigger price than that rival for their rematch, even though he will lack for nothing in fitness after chasing home Rubaud in the Kempton race that horse always wins last month.

Burdett Road’s jumping over hurdles was a bit of a mixture, but it’s surely a vote of confidence in the way he has schooled at home that Owen is content to unleash him here in a Grade Two contest.

Two miles on the Old Course favours front-running chasers and Burdett Road should take some pegging back if taking to his new vocation.

Dropping back in trip seems unlikely to help July Flower, who merely won as she was entitled to on her chasing bow at Limerick, while Skelton had flirted with running Be Aware over 3m at this meeting. It did not look like he had much to spare when beating two exposed rivals on his debut over fences at Stratford, albeit he was giving them plenty of weight.

Finally, Royal Ramblerwarrants an each-way play in the Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (3.30). This looks a fiercely competitive race but the Emma Lavelle-trained five-year-old looks underestimated in the market at 16-1.

Every inch a future chaser, the Walk In The Park gelding never ran on the Flat or in bumpers, so it was perhaps understandable that he was keen and raw in his four outings over hurdles last season.

Nevertheless, he showed plenty of ability, winning a maiden hurdle from a similarly likeable type on heavy ground at Chepstow in February before making a valiant attempt to concede 6lb to The Jukebox Kid in a 2m 4f novices’ hurdle at Uttoxeter the following month.

The winner did his bit for the form when scoring readily on his handicap bow at Carlisle this month off a mark of 122 (he’s now rated 129), while the distant third bolted up next time and the fourth, beaten 29 lengths, is now on a perch of 128. Meanwhile, the well-beaten fifth has since won twice and is on 133.

Everything points to an initial rating of 127 for Royal Rambler being lenient, and that’s without considering that he can only be a more polished model over the months ahead. 

1.10 Cheltenham: Hung Jury £2 win and £2 each-way 

1.45 Cheltenham: Burdett Road £3 win  

2.20 Cheltenham: The Companysergeant £1 win and £1.50 each-way 

2.20 Cheltenham: Hoe Joly Smoke £1 win and £1.50 each-way 

3.30 Cheltenham: Royal Rambler £1.50 each-way 

65p Each-Way Lucky 15 plus 25p each-way fourfold 

1.10 Cheltenham: Hung Jury 

1.45 Cheltenham: Burdett Road 

2.20 Cheltenham: Holy Joe Smoke 

3.30 Cheltenham: Royal Rambler