How To Bet £20 on Saturday: Get in the Flow with this Becher beauty at 100-1

Horses chalked up at 100-1 are either (a) hopelessly outclassed (b) woefully out of form or (c) have gone at the game. You may as well get your money out of your wallet and burn it, instead of backing them.

I’m not sure Regal Flow fits category A, B or C and so the 100-1 chance will be carrying some of my money each-way with Betfair and Paddy Power (who both offer five places) in the Randox Health Becher Chase at Aintree on Saturday.

Let’s get the bad news out of the way first and, at such an outlandish price, there clearly has to be a negative or two to swallow.

Rising 13, he is the oldest runner in the 18-strong line-up and he’s obliged to race from 6lb out of the handicap. And when he ran in the race last year he had already made the odd blemish when unseating his rider at the smallest fence on the course (Foinavon) eight from home.

However, I’m not worried by his veteran status – three of the past nine winners have been aged 12, 14 and 13 – and the thorough stayer is 7lb lower than when exiting 12 months ago, when beginning to make a bit of ground from the rear. Hopefully the experience will not be lost on him (he’s usually a sound jumper) and, returning to his weight, he is 2lb lower than routing his rivals in the 2018 Midland Grand National.

Regal Flow had wind surgery during the summer and ran his best race for a while when a close third to King’s Odyssey at Warwick last time. The manner in which he stuck to his task that day suggests he still has some fire in his belly and his trainer, Bob Buckler, had a welcome winner at Taunton recently after a long barren spell. In addition, Sean Houlihan has been on board for the horse’s past four wins and his 3lb claim negates his mount being wrong at the weights.

Don’t get too hung up on that, anyway. Highland Lodge won from 7lb out of the handicap in 2015, while 14-year-old Hello Bud was 5lb wrong when scoring in 2012. Since 2002, Ardent Scout and Silver Birch have also won from out of the handicap.

I shall also have a saver on Walk In The Mill at a general 9-1 because he is only 4lb higher than when a decisive winner of the race last year and confirmed his relish for the big fences when subsequently fourth in the Grand National. His comeback run at Wincanton looked a sighter and first-time cheekpieces may also add an edge.

My first instinct in the Virgin Bet Grand Sefton Handicap Chase was to side with course specialist Ultragold but after rewatching his comeback run at Ascot I’ve thought better of it because he never budged out of rear and offered little response when his jockey administered several hefty reminders.

Aintree may well revive him, of course, but perhaps age is catching up with him and I’d want bigger than 6-1 to find out.

At the prices, I’m happy to risk Hogan's Height, who is a general 25-1.

The eight-year-old looked one to follow over this sort of trip when reeling off successive handicap chase wins at Ludlow, Wetherby and Haydock but then disappointed on his final start of the campaign – and then again on his next two starts the following term.

However, after wind surgery he chalked up two hurdle wins at Catterick before being beaten in that sphere, on his return at Aintree in October, when looking in need of the run under a 10lb claimer.

Hogan's Height now resumes over fences with Tom Cannon on his back for the first time and, having looked an assured jumper in the past, appeals as the type to take to the course. His mark rose to 139 after his winning spree but has slipped back top 134.

Touch Kick is feared most but the last-time-out Fakenham winner did make a couple of blunders when catching the eye in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

My other fancy on the card is Notre Pari in the Watch Live Racing At Virgin Bet Handicap Hurdle.

He’s only a 100-30 chance but I would not fancy laying him at that price because he’s shown plenty of promise in his three races under Rules and is open to plenty of improvement stepping up half a mile in trip on his handicap debut.

Those who have backed him at short odds on his past two starts may be less forgiving but he pulled clear with a smart one last time (after conceding first run) and before that was moving sweetly when making a mistake at just the wrong time.

I’ll be shocked if the JP McManus five-year-old is not better than his present rating of 122 suggests.

Talking of ratings, a couple of people have pointed out to me that my Betfair Tingle Creek Chase pick, Defi Du Seuil, is only sixth best in the race according to the official ratings.

Why some folk religiously believe the handicapper’s figures is always beyond me. He’s got Defi Du Seuil on 163 but keep in mind that he beat twice beat Lostintranslation on merit last season and that horse now has a figure of 171. And when he beat that rival decisively at Sandown in February, he also had Vinndication (now rated 160) well held in third.

I know it’s not that straightforward (distances, ground, improvement and so on) but I fancy Defi Du Seuil’s digits do not do him justice and he has not stopped improving. He's drifted ou to almost 2-1 on the sponsor's Exchange this morning.

My two bets on the card are Esprit Du Large in the Read Road To Cheltenham At racingtv.com Henry VIII Novices' Chase and Step Back in the Betfair London National Handicap Chase.

Esprit Du Large has plenty to find with several of his rivals based on their hurdling exploits but the five-year-old was merely marking time in that sphere and looked an exciting addition to the chasing ranks when winning on his debut over fences at Exeter last month.

He tanked through that race and could have done with a stronger pace, while his jumping was more or less gun-barrel straight the whole way and most assured when the tempo picked up. The third horse home was The Mighty Don, a 150-rated hurdler, so the form also has some substance.

Soft ground clearly suits him and I like the fact he stays further than two miles given how testing the going looked on Friday. Esprit Du Large has attracted some support this Saturday morning but there is still 16-1 available.

Step Back returns to the scene of his runaway bet365 Gold Cup triumph and if the bold-jumping front-runner is anything like that kind of form will take all the beating in a much lesser race.

He was a creditable third when defending his crown in April and has had a wind op since last season.

The Bradstock team have not had a winner since March but they’ve only had 14 runners since then. Jaisalmer went close for the yard at Lingfield this week after a similar absence to Step Back and that offers encouragement.

How to bet £20 on Saturday:

1.00 Aintree Notre Pari £3.50 win at 100-30 with Unibet

1.30 Aintree: Regal Flow £2.50 each-way with Betfair and Paddy Power (offer five places)

1.30 Aintree: £1.50 win on Walk In The Mill at a general 9-1

1.50 Sandown: £4 win on Esprit Du Large at a general 16-1

3.15 Aintree: Hogan’s Height £2 each-way at a general 25-1

3.35 Sandown: Step Back £2 win at a general 9-2

35p each-way Super Yankee plus a 90p each-way fivefold

1.00 Aintree Notre Pari

1.30 Aintree: Regal Flow

1.50 Sandown: Esprit Du Large

3.00 Sandown: Defi Du Seuil

3.35 Sandown: Step Back