How To Bet £20 on Saturday: five tips who hold the key

A maximum field of 24 has been declared for the Betfair Hurdle at on Saturday but to my mind the race revolves all around Ocastle Des Mottes, who looks a decent bet at the general 11/2 on offer. 

You are going to hear plenty of pundits say “we've no idea how good he is” between now and the off, but there are ample clues to suggest that Willie Mullins’ five-year-old recruit from France will be equal to the task. And while some will turn their nose up at his price in such a big field, you should perhaps ask yourselves one question: what price would you be happy to lay him at? 

Mullins has his horses in fearsome form and since scooping all eight Grade One races at the Dublin Racing Festival he has chalked up his 200th winner of the season in record time. Yes, 200. By the first week of February. 

I’m happy to trust that the master trainer has more than a hunch that this new kid on the block, unraced since winning on a wild, wet and windy day at Auteuil in June, is generously handicapped. Probably very generously handicapped, in fact, given that he has not been tempted to show his hand before this £155,000 contest, which is worth more than many of the Grade One races at the Festival next month. 

The British assessor has awarded him a mark of 133, whereas the Irish handicapper has him on 139. That makes him something of a collectors’ item, as Irish-trained horses usually have more weight to carry when venturing to Britain, not considerably less. 

I can only recall a couple of previous episodes where Mullins has unleased a new face in such a competitive handicap. One was Ciel De Niege, a close third in the Boodles at Cheltenham in 2019, and the other was Gaelic Warrior, beaten a short head in the same race in 2022. The latter would have made a mockery of his mark of 129 had he not jumped right and went on to be rated 153 in that sphere before having his attention turned to chasing this season. 

Those near-misses augur well for Ocastle Des Mottes and so does the fact that he will be only the trainer’s third runner in the race in the past seven years. Both his past two runners flirted with winning before finishing second, and neither were the blank canvas that Ocastle Des Mottes effectively is. 

He will get the deep ground that showed him to good advantage in France and he’s landed in a renewal that lacks star quality. That is reflected by Luccia, with a mark of only 140, heading the weights. 

We are all in the dark, to an extent, as to what Ocastle Des Mottes achieved in France but he did have a subsequent Grade One winner behind when winning a Listed hurdle in the mud at Compiegne in the spring. Regardless of that, Mullins knows a thing or two about getting the most out of the French horses who arrive at his door and his record in the big British handicap hurdles also stands close inspection. 

His six Couny Hurdle winners since 2010 included another French buy, State Man, who routed the opposition on his handicap bow off a mark of 141 in 2022. He’s now rated 169, with only Constitution Hill higher among the top hurdlers. 

I’m not saying Ocastle Des Mottes is potentially another State Man, or even another Gaelic Warrior. But he won’t need to be to land this valuable pot off 133. 

The only other runner in the race who seriously interested me was Tellherthename, a smart novice whose form keeps getting franked. But he is now a non-runner because of the prevailing heavy ground. 

My other main fancy on the card is Emitom in the 3m Betfair Serial Winners Fund Handicap Hurdle (1.30). 

He’s not the force he was when a close fourth in the 2020 Stayers’ Hurdle, but he’s been revived by a move to the yard of Alan King and his handicap mark, which peaked at 155, is now 132. 

His form at reads 112, with the horse who ended his flawless record at the track, Young Butler, declining a rematch because of underfoot conditions. G A Henty, one for your Racing TV Trackers, is another significant non-runner. 

Emitom disappointed at Haydock on his next start but was straight back in the groove when chasing home Saint Davy at Ludlow last time. 

The pair pulled 29 lengths clear and the winner gave the form a big boost when following up off a 6lb higher mark in a competitive contest at Sandown last weekend. Emitom has been nudged up 2lb for that effort, but clearly remains feasibly weighted. 

The graded races have drawn small fields and I’m not going to overthink things by taking on either Shishkin, who contests the Betfair Denman Chase (2.05), or Edwardstone, who runs in the Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase (2.40). 

Shishkin looked like he was just about to put his stamp on the King George VI Chase last time when suffering his unfortunate late exit and, if nothing else, went a long way to erasing his previous naughty behaviour at Ascot. 

Nicky Henderson will probably fret about running his Gold Cip hope on the prevailing deep ground but his excellent overall record on soft/heavy going is there for all to see. He should pick off Protektorat in the closing stages, much as L’Homme Presse did at Lingfield last time. The other trio in the line-up are simply not in their class. 

Edwardstone disappointed when upped to 2m 4f at Kempton last time, but he was simply too keen in a muddling race. In addition, the Alan King stable was going through something of a lull at the time, registering one win from 47 runners. 

King’s yard is now in much better nick (eight winners from past 39 runners after another success at Kempton on Friday) and I detected a twinkle in the trainer’s eye when he discussed his stable star on Racing TV after saddling a winner at Taunton earlier in the week. 

Edwardstone is versatile regards the ground and his efforts before his Kempton lapse, when twice chasing home Jonbon, make him the clear pick. Front-running Editeur Du Gite could get something of a “freebie” at the head of affairs with Calico withdrawn on Friday, but he should still tee things up nicely for Edwardstone who, at 7/4, is almost the same price he was to beat Energumene in last season’s Champion Chase. There’s no Energumene in this field. 

The only other who caught my eye on the card is the King-trained Selwan in the opening novices’ hurdle, and I won’t be able to resist a small wager at outlandish odds (a couple of firms initially put him in at 100/1) even though his record for the yard (last home on both Flat starts and pulled up twice over hurdles) suggests I may require some kind of counselling. 

He again stopped quickly at Kempton last time after moving sweetly, much as he had on his three previous starts for the stable. This will be his second start after a wind op and King is also equipping him with a first-time visor.

Those factors, coupled with him belatedly being back on the testing ground which seemed to suit him in France, are just enough to lure me in one more time. I reserve the right to reverse that decision should he again fail to finish and ends up in a handicap off some humble mark!

12.55 Selwan £1 win at 66/1 with bet365

1.30 Emitom £1 win and £1.50 each-way at 9/2 with William Hill (four places) 

3.15 Ocastle Des Mottes £6 win and £2 each-way at 11/2 with William Hill (they offer seven places) 

£5 win double (at just over 3/1) on 

2.05 Shishkin (general 8/13) 

2.40 Edwardstone (general 13/8) 

£1 Win Patent (general odds in brackets as a guide) 

1.30 Emitom (4/1) 

2.40 Edwardstone (13/8) 

3.15 Ocastle Des Mottes (11/2) 

Above in a £1 Win Yankee with 

2.05 Shishkin (8/13) 

Plus £2 win on Ocastle Des Mottes at a general 11/2