How To Bet £20 on Derby Day: shoot for stars with 125-1 chance

The first soft-ground Derby this century looks a distinct possibility at Epsom on Saturday with more rain forecast to hit the Downs after an unsettled week. 

Testing conditions seem unlikely to help market leaders Ruling Court and Delacroix, who are among those with stamina questions to answer, and I would not be surprised if Dante winner Pride Of Arras ends up going off favourite, not least because the unbeaten colt has a pedigree that suggests he will stay well and cope with whatever surface he is confronted by. 

He's no bigger than 11-2 at the time of typing, though, and I’d rather shoot for the stars and take a chance on Lazy Griff, who is available at 125-1 to hit the jackpot for Charlie Johnston, Middleham and the world-class Christophe Soumillon. 

Lazy Griff has got a surprising amount in his favour for a handsome horse trading at such outlandish odds. 

He rather slipped under the radar as a two-year-old, but he signed off with an all-the-way Group Three success over nine furlongs at Chantilly, when partnered by Soumillon for the first time, and would have run in the Group One Criterium de Saint-Cloud in the autumn but for a minor setback. 

Physically, he always looked the type to do better with another winter on his back, and as a German-bred son of Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist, middle distances were always going to show him in a better light this term. 

He certainly looked an improved model on his return in the Chester Vase after seven months off, when he travelled zestfully up near the pace and was last off the bridle. 

Briefly, it looked like he might win turning for home but the racefit Lambourn wore him down in the closing stages and eventually won by a length and a half. It was still a highly encouraging comeback, especially with Johnston suggesting the run was needed. 

“That was fantastic, especially as Lazy Griff missed a piece of work about a week ago and for a short while it was touch and go if we'd get here,” he said. “I'm sure we can get him better as he was only 80 per cent fit.” 

Wings Of Eagles (2017) and Quest For Fame (1990) both won the Derby after finishing second in the Chester Vase, and Lazy Griff should be a tighter, sharper horse on Saturday when he attempts to emulate them. 

You can certainly make a case for him giving Lambourn more to think about, and it’s clearly not impossible he could turn the tables. Yet the gulf in their odds is colossal, with Lambourn being no bigger than 10-1 and his price going in one direction. 

We know the trip is not an issue for Lazy Griff and he’s proven on easy going, with his brother, Lambo, being a smart performer in the mud. Soumillon has been winning big races all around the world for 25 years and the combination being drawn in stall 3 also looks helpful, with the RaceiQ data revealing a low gate is preferable in 12f races at Epsom when the ground is soft. 

Coral and Ladbrokes dismiss Lazy Griff as a 125-1 chance, although they are only offering three places for each-way purposes. There is plenty of 100-1 available with those firms giving four places, including the race sponsors. 

It could be a remarkable day for “super Soumy” as he also has bright prospects aboard Geography, quoted at 17-2 by William Hill (generally 8-1 elsewhere) for the Betfred Diomed Stakes. 

This German raider is a triple Group Three winner in his native country and had prolific British challenger Brave Emperor, who re-opposes, well adrift when scoring at Dusseldorf last time. That track that has some similarities to Epsom, given it is left-handed and good balance is required as several bends need to be negotiated. 

Geography will be racing over his optimum trip on ground that will hold no fears, plus he’s belatedly been gelded since his latest victory. I also like the fact that he usually races from the front, or prominently, and that he could get a relatively uncontested lead. 

The obvious danger is Docklands, the warm favourite, who is favoured by the conditions of the race. However, all his best form has been achieved over the straight mile at Ascot. 

Robert Cowell has five runners in the Aston Martin Dash Handicap and if there’s any justice, he will take the spoils after numerous near misses in the race, as reported on racingtv.com on Thursday. 

However, several of his contenders are front-runners in a race where there is bags of pace and, with the ground likely to be on the slow side, the race could be teed up for a finisher. The one who fits the bill is Existent, even though he generally finds a way to get beaten and is proving wickedly hard to catch right. 

However, I’m not sure he’s done too much wrong when runner-up on his past four starts, including here in April when getting no luck in running, and he might just be the kind of horse who benefits from having a female jockey. 

Rose Dawes takes a handy 5lb off his back and a draw in stall 14 is appealing, as the race is generally won by something that races near the stands’ rail, even if they do not happen to be birthed near there. Three of the first five home last year were ridden by apprentices, with every ounce counting in big-field sprints. 

Blinky, quoted at 12-1 by bet365, makes most appeal in the earlier 3YO Dash. He’s shown improved from since being switched to Antony Brittain at the start of the year, winning at Wolverhampton and Southwell before finishing a good third behind Redorange, the heavily backed favourite, and Ruby’s Profit at Chester last time. 

That latest effort needs marking up because he fluffed the start, from stall 1, and ended up playing catch-up while being caught up in traffic. In the circumstances, he did well to keep on and make the frame. 

By contrast, the speedy Ruby’s Profit had no excuses from the front and has since quickly resumed winning ways at Goodwood. She seems sure to make another bold against the stands’ rail in stall 18 but she’s no bigger than 7-2 and Blinky, drawn next to her, gets a 6lb pull and rates a value bet to reverse the form. 

1.35 Epsom: Geography £2 each-way at 17-2 

2.10 Epsom: Blinky £2 each-way at 12-1 with bet365 (five places) 

2.45 Epsom: Existent £1.50 each-way at 14-1 (five places) 

3.30 Epsom: Lazy Griff £2 each-way at a general 100-1 (firms offering four places) plus £1 each-way with Coral and Ladbrokes at 125-1 (three places) 

3.30 Epsom: Pride Of Arras £2 win at 11-2  

50p each-way fourfold on the top four named