How To Bet £20 on 2018 Derby Day: Warrior can leave rivals reeling

Racing UK’s live coverage of the Investec Derby draw provided some theatre but those who believe it will have a significant bearing on the big race on Saturday are surely barking up the wrong tree.

I am forever telling colleagues that statistics are like a bikini - what they reveal is suggestive but what they conceal is vital - and to me the Derby draw is a blatant case in point.

Consider the simple fact that since 1967, when stalls for the great race were first introduced, nine winners have officially jumped from stall 10 and yet, by quirk, none have emerged from 11. That alone makes any subsequent debate about draw bias a nonsense.

And I use the word “officially” because those stall positions inked into the record books do not allow for non-runners. For example, if the horse in stall one is scratched - as happened in the Derby in 2000 and 2007 - then all the others shift over one.

For instance, Aqaleem is listed as finishing third from stall two in the 2007 Derby when he was actually berthed on the inside gate. I’m not sure the bookies took that into account when pushing out Saxon Warrior in the betting after he was drawn lowest of all.

Apparently, no horse has won a 1m 4f race at Epsom from stall one since 2000 but the point to keep in mind is how many of those runners were blessed with Saxon Warrior’s brilliance?

None will have had his credentials, including the last Aidan O’Brien-trained runner to be berthed there in the Derby - Alessandro Volta in 2008. He outran his odds of 33-1 to finish sixth.

Anyway, I digress, and here is where my cash for the big day will be going:

This is not a deep Group Three and the German raider, Diaphora, is worth risking at a general 9-1 with William Buick on her back.

The daughter of Pivotal is well-related and was having only her sixth start when beating Peace In Motion in a Listed contest over a mile in fluent style at Hanover on her latest start.

The runner-up had previously won a Listed contest herself and last year finished a length runner-up to Unforgetable Filly in the German 1,000 Guineas.

It is not an equal science but Unforgetable Filly has a rating of 109 and the market leaders in this race - Shenanigans and Lincoln Rock - are rated 100 and 105. Challengers from abroad are often under-rated by the bookmakers and collateral form suggests this is another example.

You have to go back 28 races and almost two years since Gabrial last got his head in front but there is no way he should be the outsider of the party.

He has looked in great heart this spring, including when making the frame in the Lincoln and Spring Cup under big weights, and has twice been placed in this contest - when third in 2013 and when touched off by a neck under Frankie Dettori 12 months ago.

Dettori is back on for the first time since and the only other occasion he partnered Gabrial was when a half-length runner-up in last year’s Group Two bet365 Mile.

The in-form Love Dreams, feared most and worth a saver at 7-1, is likely to set honest fractions and that will play into the hands of the habitually held up Gabrial, who can steal the show in the closing stages.

What usually happens in the Dash is that Caspian Prince wins and Boom The Groom catches the eye. I’m hoping this is the day when it finally all clicks for the latter.

Boom The Groom did not get the rub of the green when sixth last year and it was a similar story when seventh in 2016 and when third the year before that.

This race will have been at the top of his agenda for some while and his fourth over course and distance in April, when he flew at the finish to be beaten only half a length, should have put him spot on.

He’s able to operate off a mark 11lb lower than 12 months ago and the booking of Silvestre De Sousa, who has never previously ridden the seven-year-old, is the icing on the cake.

Saxon Warrior appeals at odds-against because the two-time Group One winner has got the best form, should relish stepping up in trip, is proven on easy ground and is open to plenty more improvement.

To my eye at every stage in the 2,000 Guineas he was always going to win and even that deserves marking up because, unlike Aidan O’Brien’s previous winners of the race, he had not enjoyed an away day from Ballydoyle or galloped on turf because of a soggy spring.

That form sets the standard with Masar, the runaway Craven winner, back in third, and Roaring Lion, the subsequent runaway Dante winner, fifth.

By all accounts his subsequent preparation has gone like clockwork and I can see the son of Deep Impact proving in a different league and emulating Camelot - who won the Derby by five lengths after himself gaining victories in the Racing Post Trophy and Guineas.

None of Saxon Warrior’s 11 rivals have won at the highest level and, for all there have been some interesting trials, he looks on another plane to them. In betting without the favourite, I would be with Knight To Behold, who is bred to be a good horse and overcame racing keenly to thump Kew Gardens at Lingfield.

How To Bet £20 on 2018 Derby Day:

OPTION ONE:

2.35 Epsom: Diaphora £2 win at a general 9-1

3.10 Epsom: Gabrial £2 each-way at a general 12-1

3.45 Epsom: Boom The Groom £3 win and £1.50 each-way at a general 8-1

4.30 Epsom: Saxon Warrior £8 on him to win to win by more than a length and three quarters at 5-2 with Ladbrokes

OPTION TWO:

£1 Win Lucky Fifteen plus £5 win double on Boom The Groom (take 8-1) and Saxon Warrior.

2.35 Epsom: Diaphora (9-1)

3.10 Epsom: Gabrial (12-1)

3.45 Epsom: Boom The Groom (8-1)

4.30 Epsom: Saxon Warrior

OPTION THREE:

4.30 Epsom: Saxon Warrior £10 win at 11-10 with Skybet plus £10 on him winning by more than a length and three quarters at 5-2 with Ladbrokes.