How To Bet £20 at Kempton on Boxing Day: Irish raider can strike at 8-1

Cyrname and Lostintranslation have the potential to stay at the top of the chasing three for years to come but whether they deserve to be quite so dominant at the head of the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase betting is another matter.

The sponsors make the pair 11-8 and 2-1 respectively for the Boxing Day showpiece at Kempton, which means they believe there is a 75 per chance that one of them will prevail.

Cyrname has been electric on his past three starts at his beloved Ascot but he has yet to run to a mark above 150 away from that venue and will be going into unknown territory in terms of trip.

A typical King George run on ground with some give in it usually takes about 6 minutes, whereas Cyrname’s latest winning time of 5 min 19 sec was the slowest he has recorded. So he will have to gallop about 40 seconds longer than he ever has before at an “away” game. It is not impossible he will rise to the challenge, of course, but do you really want to take 6-4 to find out?

Lostintranslation does not have a stamina question to answer and I’m a big fan, but he was pretty much all out to lower the colours of Bristol De Mai, who was having his first run of the season, in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last time when probably at a fitness advantage.

That form does not suggest he is too far ahead of rivals trading at much bigger prices, if at all, and the memory of the way he jumped left when beaten at Sandown last winter also niggles.

My initial plan was to take them on with Thistlecrack at chunky odds but unfortunately he was declared a non-runner this morning (December 26), so instead my money will mainly be riding with Footpad at the 8-1 on offer with Betfair and Paddy Power.

The six-time Grade One winner dazzled as a novice the season before last and hinted he might belatedly resume his rise up the ranks when cruising home on his return when upped in distance at Thurles.

He’s now back in a much deeper race but he was good enough to finish fourth in a Champion Hurdle in his younger days and is unexposed as a stayer. And we all know his trainer, Willie Mullins, is something of a genius who would not be sending Footpad over the water unless he thought he could win.

I'm also going to have a saver on last year's winner, Clan Des Obeaux, at a general 6-1 because he looked in his element at Kempton last year and shaped as if retaining all his ability when runner-up on his return at Down Royal. That will have put him spot-on for his defence.

Tom Scudamore will be disappointed not to be riding Thistlecrack but he can strike earlier on the card on Hold The Note, who appeals as one of the best bets of the day in the Ladbrokes-sponsored novices’ handicap chase.

Hold The Note showed plenty of ability in bumpers and three starts over hurdles last season but his connections have wasted no time putting him over fences this campaign and that decision was quickly vindicated when he shaped with bundles of promise on his chasing bow at Ludlow last month.

The five-year-old travelled like the best horse in the race but he was having his first start for nine months and, with the ground riding heavy, he faded to finish third. He should be sharper this time and a mark of 133 for his handicap bow looks favourable.

His connections won last year’s running with a similar type in Glen Forsa, who scored off a mark 125 and ended the season rated 150. I’m not saying Hold The Note is going to improve 2st between now and the spring but am pretty sure he is ahead of the handicapper.

Nicky Henderson will saddle three of the ten runners in the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle and his trio are all well fancied.

Fusil Raffles heads the betting but he faces no easy task conceding 7lb to last year’s winner, Verdana Blue, who is officially rated 10lb superior to him. I reckon she should be favourite, but there is 5-1 available.

Verdana Blue took the scalp of Buveur D’Air in the Christmas Hurdle last year and later in the campaign she bolted up in the Scottish Champion Hurdle off a lofty mark of 154. She has been absent since finishing fourth to Dee Ex Bee in the Sagaro Stakes on the Flat, in May, but I doubt she will lack for fitness and, while well served by goodish ground, can cope with slower going.

I'm also going to have a saver on Silver Streak, who has shown himself to be among the berst hurdlers around but is always underestimated in the betting. He should not be 12-1 on the evidence of his two runs this term, which include a smooth success over course andf distance.

Finally, I feel compelled to have a bet in the Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase because Slate House, the favourite, may be at his best over shorter, while Master Tommytucker and Danny Whizzbang are both “bounce” candidates after defying lengthy absences on their respective returns.

Black Op is the most solid of the fancied contenders but my eye is drawn to the 50-1 chalked up against The Mighty Don.

The pick of his hurdling form over staying distances reads well – he finished a close fourth to Paisley Park at Ascot this time last year - and this will be the first time he has been given the opportunity to show what he can do over a distance of ground over fences.

He was not given a hard time when well-held over an inadequate trip at Ascot last time and, before that, had finished a good third to subsequent Grade One winner Esprit Du Large at Exeter.

The Mighty Don jumps soundly and if the race does fall apart he will be more than capable of picking up the pieces.

How To Bet £20 at Kempton on Boxing Day:

1.20 Hold The Note £6 win at a general 11-2

1.55 The Mighty Don £1 win and £1.25 each-way at a general 50-1

2.30 Verdana Blue £4 win at 5-1 with Betfair and Paddy Power

2.30 Silver Streak £1.50 win at 12-1 with Ladbrokes and William Hill

3.05 Footpad £4 win at 8-1 with Betfair and Paddy Power

3.05 Clan Des Obeaux £1 win at a general 6-1

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