How To Bet £20 ante-post on the Qatar Sussex Stakes

Nostrum looked a top-notcher on his return this month and appeals as a decent ante-post punt, at the standout 6-1 offered by William Hill, to win the Qatar Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on Wednesday week (August 2).

Connections of this exciting colt have yet to commit him to a clash with triple Group One winner Paddington, but that is undoubtedly factored into his price. There’s surely no way he’d be anything like 6/1 if he was confirmed as an intended runner.

Sometimes, you have to trust your instinct – at least if enjoy an ante-post wager - and mine is that Sir Michael Stoute and Juddmonte will let Nostrum take his chance, provided, of course, he doesn’t suffer any setbacks in the next ten days. They will have to find another jockey as Ryan Moore will be on Paddington, for his employers, but they will not be short of suitors.

Nostrum was among last year’s top two-year-olds, winning over 7f at Sandown and Newmarket before finishing a close third in the Dewhurst to Chaldean, who would go on to land the 2000 Guineas.

I’m not sure we saw the best of him that autumn day – he was still something of a work in progress - and the vibes at Headquarters in the spring were that he had made great progress over the winter. He was trading at just 8/1 for the Guineas when an untimely “knocked leg” ruled him out in mid-April. Perhaps that was a blessing, given the Classic ended up being run in bottomless ground and seems to have left a mark on several who took part, including the winner.

Apparently, the son of Kingman, brilliant winner of the Sussex in 2014, was close to reappearing at Royal Ascot, presumably in the St James’s Palace Stakes, but Stoute opted to give him a bit more time and pointed him to the easier pickings of the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes over a mile at the July Meeting.

He ended up landing up in a hot renewal of that Listed contest – it was a Group race in all but name - but he was backed off the boards near the off and could not have been more impressive in dispatching his five rivals; tanking along and powering through the line, gun-barrel straight, with Moore pretty much a passenger on him.

At the line, he had three lengths to spare over the previously unbeaten Embesto, with New Endeavour, previously unlucky not to land the Britannia off a lofty rating, another two lengths back in third. Mostabshir was beaten seven lengths – about the same distance he’d previously finished behind Paddington in the St James’s Palace Stakes, with Imperial Emperor, who like Embesto lined up unbeaten after two starts, back in fourth.

"We've never made any bones about the fact that we think this is a very good horse and it was a frustrating start to the season, but this will hopefully be the springboard for the rest of the season," Juddmonte's European racing manager Barry Mahon said. "We probably could have been back for [Royal] Ascot, but it made more sense to wait and come here.

"This has been won by some good horses and it looked a deep renewal and a pretty tight race, so the way he went away from them he has to be a top-class horse. He's in everything, so we'll see how he comes out of it but hopefully it'll be sooner rather than later that he'll be back in Group One company.”

Nostrum didn’t have a hard race at Newmarket and has had 20 days to get over his exertions. Rather than “bounce”, I’d imagine it will put him spot-on for what will obviously be a tougher assignment. On official figures, he has 11lb to find with Paddington but that’s more a case of him not having the opportunity to showcase all his ability.

Paddington, trained by Aidan O'Brien, is a best-priced 8-15 to add to his wins in the Irish 2000 Guineas, St James’s Palace Stakes and Coral-Eclipse. He’s thriving on his racing but this will be the speediest test he has encountered at the top level, having been upped to ten furlongs last time, and I’m not sure he’s bumped into a horse with as many gears as Nostrum seems to possess. This will also be his sixth run the season, plus his fourth Group One assignment in two months.

Inspiral is second favourite at 4-1 but she blew hot and cold last year, plus it was disappointing that she could not repel the previously unheralded Triple Time in the Queen Anne. The winner either showed massive improvement or she underperformed. Perhaps it was a bit of both. I don’t buy the theory she wasn’t fully tuned up as she was strong in the betting and had hacked up at the meeting on her return 12 months earlier.

Modern Games was only fourth in the Queen Anne and, for all his qualities and that the Charlie Appleby yard had a bit of a wobble at the meeting, I fancy the globetrotter will struggle to go one better than in last year’s Sussex, when he was no match for Baaeed.

His stablemate, Master Of The Seas, had a going day when thumping Aldaary in the Summer Mile at Ascot, but you never know quite what version of him is going to turn up. Appleby suggested afterwards he may instead head to Saratoga with him in mid-August, which tells you something.

The other six who are still engaged look to be making up the numbers, and it's hard to imagine any supplementary entries joining the party.

£20 win on Nostrum at 6/1 with William Hill