Betfair Chase: runner-by-runner guide and verdict

Trainer: Dan Skelton. Official rating: 166. RaceiQ Jump Index: 7.6 (out of 10). Odds: 11-8. 

Twelve months on from an agonising defeat in the Betfair Chase, Grey Dawning returns to try and lay the ghost. 

He looked the winner for 95 per cent of the race 12 months ago and traded at 1.06 in-running on the betting exchange of the race sponsors. But then a combination of an error at the final fence, bottomless ground and the tenacity of course specialist Royale Pagaille contrived to defeat him. 

That gruelling encounter ended up impacting on the rest of his campaign, too, although he was a zestful winner at Kelso in March and he beat all bar Gaelic Warrior in the Bowl at Aintree. 

The winner of last season’s 2024 Turners Novices’ Chase (there may never be another) has at least 7lb up his sleeve according to the handicapper and represents a yard that can do little wrong. He takes on race fit rivals, but this race has been on his agenda for some time, and you cannot imagine him being betrayed by a lack of fitness. 

In the 20-year history of the Betfair Chase, only one horse, the 157-rated Snoopy Loopy, has won with a rating of less than 160. Grey Dawning is the only candidate with a rating above 160.  

Trainer: Rebecca Curtis. Official rating: 154. Jump Index: 7.6. Odds: 7-2.   

One of the most progressive staying chasers in training seeks to bridge the gap between high-end handicapper and Grade One performer. 

It was only 13 months ago ago that Haiti Couleurs was being beaten off a mark of 122 in a 3m handicap chase at Chepstow but he’s since improved in chunks, so much so that his Cheltenham Gold Cup odds range between 14-1 and 25-1. 

He’s undoubtedly got the stamina for this contest, especially if it ends up being a slog, but has he got the speed? 

His highlights last season came when winning the 3m6f National Hunt Chase (off a mark of 135) and 3m5f Irish Grand National in the mud at Fairyhouse (off 141). Now, he’s being asked to tackle some of the best around on level weights over a bare 3m on a flat track. 

The Coral Gold Cup over further at Newbury, off his new rating of 154, would have seemed a more logical move but his connections are more inclined to roll the dice. He will not lack anything in condition after a fluent winning comeback over hurdles. 

Trainer: ben Pauling. Official rating: 155. Jump Index: 7.6. Odds: 7-1. 

Ben Pauling has been bullish in the build-up, which suggests the six-year-old has taken a big jump forward for his comeback defeat at the hands of Resplendent Grey in the Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase at Carlisle this month. 

He certainly needs a lot more on this occasion as his jumping lacked polish on his return (his trainer suggested afterwards he was half-asleep) and he ended up getting worn down by a rival running over an inadequate trip. And just two lengths back in third was a young mare making her chasing debut. 

His campaign last term began and ended with non-completions but in between he reeled off three successive victories, completing his hat-trick by pulling out all the stops to edge out Jango Baie in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown in February. That rival was subsequently a dramatic winner of the Arkle. 

He's still unexposed over 3m and got more to offer. Expect him to take a lead this time as he was gawky making the running last time. 

Trainer: Paul Nicholls. Official rating: 157. Jump Index: 8. Odds: 20-1. 

One of the politest horses in training – his mantra has been “after you” – showed a more ruthless streak when landing the Old Roan Chase at Aintree last month. 

That was his first victory for three years, when he won at this meeting, and probably came too late for many punters who had given up on him turning near-misses into something more tangible. 

You cannot argue he did not deserve that success as he has made the frame in numerous big races but banking on an encore is ambitious. 

He’s 0/9 when running in Grade One company and all his wins have been achieved over shorter. Three miles on soft ground, with a length run-in, would not be his ideal scenario. 

Trainer: Venetia Williams. Official rating: 1596. Jump Index: 6.8 Odds:  6-1. 

Course specialist Royale Pagaille seeks a third successive Betfair Chase triumph and, overall, has five Haydock victories on his CV. He was also runner-up in the 2021 edition of this race. 

There’s little doubt he will be fully revved up for his first run in 231 days and it will be a case of the softer the better because he revels in deep ground. 

However, he’s rising 12 and the only 11-year-old to have previously won this race is the mighty Kauto Star. Nobody is suggesting that Royale Pagaille is in anything like his league. 

The cards fell his way when he mastered Grey Dawning 12 months ago, but he had a wretched time afterwards, including here, with his jumping also becoming an issue. His peak rating of 166 had slipped 7lb by the end of term. 

This is his Cup final for the season, no doubt, but he faces no easy task in his rematch with Grey Dawning and other new kids on the block will be on the scene. 

Trainer: Gordon Elliott. Official rating: 154. Jump Index: 7. Odds: 11-1. 

There have been 11 Irish-trained runner in the Betfair Chase with only A Plus Tard (2021) being successful. They’ve also had a couple of odds-on chances being sunk. 

Gordon Elliott saddled Outlander to finish third in the 2017 renewal and is set to be represented by Stellar Story this time, although this looks like Plan B for the second-season chaser as he was an intended runner in the Champion Chase at Down Royal this month only to be a late non-runner because the ground was deemed too quick. 

He should get his conditions at the weekend, but he looks cut from the same sort of cloth as Haiti Couleurs in that he looks an out-and-out stayer. 

The 2024 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle winner chased home Lecky Watson in the Brown Advisory at last season’s Cheltenham Festival although it was far from vintage edition. 

Stellar Story subsequently was no more than a support act at the Punchestown Festival and similar looks on the cards. 

Trainer: Stuart Edmunds. Official rating: 147. Jump Index: 6.8. Odds:  33-1. 

The one previous mare to have run in the Betfair Chase was Limerick Lace, who trailed home last of five finishers a year ago. 

Marsh Wren will not fail through lack of effort and could well outrun her chunky odds as she goes well when fresh and is well served by testing ground. 

Also, she is effective over shorter than 3m and probably has a bit more toe than some of these. 

Unfortunately, we only saw here once last season, when she trounced Apple Away by 16 lengths in a Listed contest over 3m at Market Rasen. Typically, she made the running that day, proving her stamina at the same time. 

I’d imagine her connections will be satisfied with some Grade One blacktype before she heads to the breeding sheds. Having won nine of her 15 races, she will not be short of suitors when that day arrives. 

Grey Dawning stands out and has excellent prospects of going one better than last year. The likely scrap for second is not so easy to call, with Marsh Wren overpriced to perhaps fill second spot.