Horse racing tips: three over the jumps for Monday

Tom Thurgood hopes for a good afternoon for jockey Gavin Sheehan and trainer Mike Smith among a couple of picks of Perth, with further jumps action from Galway coming up on Monday live on Racing TV.

3.40 Perth: Beauty To Behold

This is the biggest field on the card but a race much bigger on quantity than quality - just one win from 113 combined Rules starts over obstacles between them – and this looks a decent opening for Beauty To Behold to covert recent good work into success off top-weight.

She is still a maiden – she’s in good company here – but Beauty To Behold has finished in the first three on her last four starts (77% of rivals beaten) and might have more to offer after just seven starts and on this second outing for trainer Mike Smith.

Beauty To Behold fared best of those ridden out the back over course and distance last time and was only beaten a length and a half in third by the Summer Plate winner Born Famous. She was more amenable than usual there when ridden patiently on her first start for new connections and she additionally drops down in grade to the Class 5 bracket now.

Perhaps not much was expected last time as she went off at 11-1, her biggest SP in three starts in handicaps, and Smith has sent out just two winners on first start for the stable from 113 runners over jumps since 2005 (1.8%, 0.37 A/E).

There are several reasons to hope that Beauty To Behold might improve a few pounds now, then - especially if connections stick with the patient tactics in a race that features several pace-setters and forward-goers – and this looks a pretty decent opportunity to get her head in front.

Gavin Sheehan riding for Smith seems a fairly recent development and it’s a small sample, but the jockey and trainer have teamed up for three wins, three seconds and three thirds from 12 runs so far (1.43 A/E) and Sheehan has seven wins and eight seconds from 30 rides at Perth (1.37 A/E). The jockey has ridden plenty of winners in recent days, too.

4.15 Perth: Well Planted

Continuing the Smith and Sheehan thread, Well Planted – another top-weight representing the pair – is also fancied to go very well.

The six-year-old has finished either first or second on 44 per cent of his 16 starts over hurdles for this yard and he seems to be better than ever after undergoing a breathing operation back in the spring.

His last three starts have been his best and all have come over course and distance, with the merit of his latest run – a close second in Class 2 company – appealing as a decent bit of form. The winner on that occasion was a previous head defeat away from landing a four-timer, while the third and fourth came into that contest off recent wins. Only the fourth and fifth from last time have run subsequently and both have finished second.

Well Planted is improving and a 3lb rise for his latest effort could be a tad lenient, while notably he contests the Class 4 bracket now in a significant drop in grade. The average rating in his latest race was 121 (median 122); here, it’s 103 (median 97.5).

There is not much pace on here with only Malengen likely to race prominently along with our pick – a former Flat winner who has looked best at an easy two miles over jumps – so this set-up could additionally suit Well Planted, too.

5.00 Newton Abbot: Karannelle

She has to reverse form with the favourite and hat-trick seeking Saddlers Quest here, but I think she can reduce the five-length gap from their course-and-distance meeting three weeks ago and there's a chance that she could make things interesting at odds that might underestimate her a little.

The principal thing to note here is the inclusion of three pace-setters in a field of just seven runners, so Karannelle and Saddlers Quest should be suited by the make-up of this race - and probably more so the former if this is a strong test at the trip.

Saddlers Quest came out on top in their meeting last month – the race which might be the key form line here - but that contest was a dash for home and Joe Anderson made a likely race-winning move when taking much closer order early on the final circuit. Karannelle was anchored at the back throughout and was denied a run twice when trying to make her ground up the congested inside rail. She was also conceding 18lb to the winner – not accounting for Anderson’s 5lb claim – and with the concession now 11lb she is weighted to reduce the five-length arrears.

Saddlers Quest has only had three runs over two miles on decent ground over hurdles and those last three efforts have coincided with her best form, so she might well have more to offer, but Karannelle reverts to mares-only company again at a track where she has generally run well (form figures of 22412234) and is capable of taking closer order this time.

While we're only looking at the early prices, Saddlers Quest (6-4) is deemed to have a 40 per cent chance of winning and Karannelle (general 11-2) a 15 per cent chance here. I wouldn't make the discrepancy that big.