Horse racing tips: 20-1 Stayers' Hurdle tip plus Monday bets

Horse racing tips: 20-1 Stayers' Hurdle tip plus Monday bets

By Ross Millar
Last Updated: Thu 21 Dec 2023
Ross Millar believes a Grade One-winning chaser is worth backing at 20-1 for the Stayers' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival plus has three bets for Monday's racing action.
Plenty of good action was served up for us from both sides of the Irish sea this weekend. Coole Cody and Midnight Shadow had a titanic battle up the stiff Cheltenham hill and, like Protektorat from the week before, they enhanced the form of last month’s Paddy Power Gold Cup.
It is worth keeping your eyes peeled for the fifth-place Galahad Quest (a faller on his next start) and the eighth, Manofthemountain, when they next run.
In Ireland, Paul Townend enjoyed a dream return to the saddle when riding a treble at Fairyhouse for his boss Willie Mullins. Both Blue Lord and Stattler delivered smart jumping displays on their first starts over the larger obstacles and look likely to be every bit as good over fences as they were hurdles. (Maybe Patrick Mullins has already spotted his National Hunt Chase ride!)
Next weekend, the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot promises to be a high-class affair with Thyme Hill looking to get back on track after a poor run in France. He’ll face a stiff test from Buzz, who had the form of his recent Ascot win boosted when Guard Your Dreams and Song For Someone finished first and second in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham, and he swatted them aside with minimal fuss when they met last time out.
Former Stayers’ Hurdle winner Paisley Park will be without Aidan Coleman, and the cheekpieces that were worn last time out. Tom Bellamy is riding exceptionally well and maybe a fresh approach from a jockey with no preconceived ideas will help get the best out of him.
Don’t dismiss Champ, either. He’s undoubtedly got an abundance of talent and maybe reverting to hurdles will see him reach his potential. The 20-1 widely available for him in the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival doesn’t seem like the worst ante-post investment.
Monday’s jumping action comes from Plumpton where I have three selections. Best of luck.
Many in this race arrive here with their last win a distant memory, or with the need for soft ground.
However, neither of these points are applicable to I See You Well who won over this course and distance on good ground on his penultimate start.
His sole start since then can be forgiven as it was his first start of the season, and none of his six career wins have come off the back of a break.
Plumpton is a unique track that is well suited to the adage ‘horses for courses’, so confidence is boosted given that four of his six victories have come at this track.
Sean Houlihan claims a valuable 3lb and in a race that lacks depth, I’d be disappointed if I See You Well didn't go very close.
Evan Williams and the excellent Adam Wedge combined to win the Racing Post Gold Cup on Saturday, and I am hoping they can keep their good form going and capture this prize with a thoroughly unexposed type.
Lusitanien’s two runs in novice and maiden hurdles last season resulted in two thirds, with the form of his third in a Taunton maiden hurdle that particularly interests me.
He finished 11 lengths behind the easy winner, The Widdow Maker, who is now rated 135, while the runner-up, Young O’Leary, finished four lengths ahead, but in receipt of 3lb and has since been placed off a mark of 106.
This would suggest that a mark of 99 is by no means excessive for the selection.
Lusitanien is a big, chasing type that has clearly been afforded time to learn his craft. Sent off at just 5-1 on his last start at Sedgefield, it’s clear an improved performance was expected, but that failed to materialise as he was brought down at the third flight.
Providing there are no ill effects from that experience, I fully expect him to make up for that disappointment and win this.
I though his effort on his latest start could be considerably upgraded as, going to the first fence, Nick Schofield had him anchored at the back of the field, but he made a bad blunder and conceded a huge amount of extra ground in a race where both the winner, and the runner-up, were always in the front rank.
Pleasingly, after the error at the first fence, his jumping was assured and quick, but he could never quite peg back the front two.
He was dropped a further 2lb for that effort meaning he runs here off a rating of just 80. I think time will prove he’s considerably better than this mark and I expect him to take advantage here.
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