Nunthorpe Stakes: runner-by-runner guide and tip

The open nature of the sprint division has been remarked on more than once this season and that arguably makes the Wootton Bassett Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes additionally compelling for a betting perspective. 

Several sprinters are returning here having run in the Nunthorpe before - headlined by last year's winner Live In The Dream - but while you couldn't put off backers of repeat contenders the statistics don’t necessarily point to these types being under-bet or underrated.

Since 1997, backing all horses running in the Nunthorpe fo the first time would have actually yielded a level stakes profit (£25.88) in performance only little worse than that expected by the market (0.9 A/E). Conversely, accounting for all horses that have contested the race at least once before would have resulted in worse figures (6.3 per cent, -£30.50, 0.72 A/E). 

Generally three-year-olds are up against it – some top-class ones including Oasis Dream, Stravinsky, Mozart and more recently the likes of Sole Power have done it – but those notable exceptions have proven the general exception the general market performance of the three-year-olds since 1997 is well below expectation (0.59 A/E). 

Here is a closer look at all the 14 declared runners with a big-race verdict below.

Trainer: Archie Watson Odds: 7/1

The three-year-olds don’t have a great record in this but he ran a cracker at that age in this race last year despite coming from quite a way back, and when it paid to be on the pace. He posted the fastest final three-furlong split, and angling across the track from the stands-side to challenge would further understate his effort on the numbers too. He broke fine and travelled well in front in Listed company at Deauville last time, an assignment surely with a view to this after a prolonged absence beforehand. He represents strong form away from the more middling domestic lines of this season and he’s a fascinating contender. 

Trainer: Robert Cowell Odds: 25/1

On official ratings he’s a mssive price – his rating of 111 is the equal of Believing and only 2lb shy of Big Evs – but his antics at the start has been the prevalent topic of discussion this term rather than what he’s been doing in the middle and end of his races. He was too free last time in Listed company behind Starlust here last time after ducking sharply right from the stalls, but he does have good form figures in big fields and he may get his preferred quick ground for more or less the first time this season. He’s not one for any real confidence currently but it would not be a surprise to see him go better than his odds suggest, though we’ll know more about his chances shortly after the start! 

Trainer: Adam West Odds: 10/1

He made all in this last term and, after a trip to the Breeders’ Cup late last year, a repeat bid has been the long-term target for the defending champion. Yet to win in four starts this term,  he was beaten by a race-fit Kerdos on softer ground than ideal on his return and wasn’t best placed on the sprint track at Sandown Park after, again on unfavourable ground. He was a bit underwhelming at Goodwood last time when ridden with a bit more restraint and, while not taking anything away from him, he did get a bit of an easy lead in this race last year. He’s shorter than his 40/1 price last year but he doesn’t look missed at around 12/1 this time.

Trainer: Miroslav Nieslanik Odds: 66/1

One of the more experienced types here as a six-year-old with 24 runs so far over the minimum trip or an extended five furlongs though, he’s yet to genuinely figure in four starts in Britain so far, with his latest effort in the King George Stakes at Goodwood – his third effort in that race – resulting in his biggest defeat so far. He goes quickly from the front and his presence here could have ramifications for the likes of Live In The Dream and other forward goers. 

Trainer: Ed Bethell Odds: 10/1

Wonderfully progressive last season and culminating in Group One glory in the Betfair Sprint Cup, he’s held his own at the top level this year without getting his head in front in three starts. He was rousted to the front in this race last year and didn’t look wholly comfortable but stuck on pretty admirably, and similarly looked hard at it well over two furlongs from home at Ascot in the King Charles III Stakes after bombing from the stalls, running on really well but never looking like winning before shaping better than the result in a warm running of the Hackwood Stakes last time. This distance is a genuine minimum and the ground and general pace set-up looks more against him than not here but this likeable type is fancied to give his best before the Sprint Cup, which looks more his bag. 

Trainer: Kevin Ryan Odds: 14/1

He’s winless from three starts at York but has only been beaten by half a length at most on the Knavesmire, most recently when behind Mill Stream in the Duke Of York Stakes, travelling best two furlongs out and shaping as if needing a sharper test. He was held on to a bit, again over six furlongs, in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes next time and once again travelled strongly but didn’t last out and this drop to five furlongs is interesting. He’s a lightly-raced four-year-old and improvement is expected next year over the minimum trip, though he’s no back-number in this. Trainer Kevin Ryan has run a few with similar profiles in this race and not without success, with Amadeus Wolf second on his first try at the minimum trip back in 2006. 

Trainer: Mick Appleby Odds: 7/2

He ultimately couldn’t figure as a fancied two-year-old in this race last year, though he’s better equipped to deal with this test now and last year’s effort was better than the result superficially suggested as he showed decent speed in front for two-thirds of the race. This term, he travelled really well in front in the King Charles III Stakes and has a brazen mid-race speed that gets others out of their comfort zone, even if he might have gone just a tad too fast at Ascot. He didn’t get the run of things at Goodwood last time with Ponntos competition for the lead and he couldn’t apply pressure to those behind as he usually does. He won, but we might see better still here though Asfoora and Believing were the more obvious eyecatchers from Goodwood. Competition for the lead here is a concern from the likes of Live In The Dream and Ponntos. 

Trainer: Ralph Beckett Odds: 14/1

The three-year-old goes particularly well at York and his course nous is central to his chance here, as the feeling is he may not be competitive at this level (at least at this stage) if this was run elsewhere; he struck in Listed company on the Knavesmire last month (rated 113) and, at Goodwood last time, travelled up well early but ultimately didn’t quite have the toe to travel off a strong early pace. He stayed on later and this slightly stiffer test will help. He likely hasn’t finished improving yet but he has a bit to find. 

Trainer: Henry Dwyer Odds: 2/1

The Aussie sprinter has provided class and interest to the British sprinting division this year and, after tiring after travelling well enough on British debut at Haydock Park, looked a better model at Royal Ascot next time when coming from further back than Big Evs to win the King Charles III Stakes comfortably, staying on well at the trip. Unlucky at Goodwood when behind Big Evs last time, he was over 3 lengths quicker in the final two furlongs despite finishing second (Believing further back was quicker still). Ideally you’d be on or near the pace at York and he’s a strong stayer over five furlongs, so connections would want them to go quick enough here too. The ground is right and he could well be improving still.

Trainer: Michael Dods Odds: 25/1

The five-year-old will have quick ground to suit although, while doing fine, she perhaps hasn’t quite hit the heights expected after proving really progressive towards the end of the 2022 campaign and starting off the following year with an exciting win in the Chaloner Stakes and then the Duke Of York, fending off Highfield Princess. She posted her first win since when dead-heating in Listed company at Ayr last time, though she has more to find now and this contest may not pan out ideally for this patiently-ridden mare.

Trainer: George Boughey Odds: 8/1

The four-year-old has already raced 21 times and on six occasions this year but she is getting better while still being unexposed at five furlongs, have raced just four times at the minimum trip. She ran a lovely race from a wide draw in the King Charles III Stakes, not beaten far after being dropped in after breaking well. She didn’t fare so well after a quick turnaround in the Jubilee next time when ridden more forward but she was a big eye-catcher at Goodwood last time, arguably losing out from an uncharacteristically slow break and Rossa Ryan aboard Starlust tried to keep her in a pocket aboard. Her closing sectionals were much the best and she ran on really strongly from a disadvantageous position, and this test looks ideal for a horse still improving. 

Trainer: Ed Walker Odds: 25/1

She has form on quicker ground even if, in relation to this field, softer ground may be more to her advantage though she posted a good fourth in this contest last year and shaped better than her seventh in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot suggested, travelling quite well until late on. The door was shut on her about a furlong and a half from home in the Sapphire Stakes last time and grabbed an unlikely third in an eye-catching effort. She stays on strongly over a decent test at five furlong and, in a set-up that could pan out favourably, favours as the type to outrun her odds.

Trainer: Katie McGivern Odds: 100/1

A first Group One runner for trainer Katie McGivern after just 57 runs so far with a licence and flagbearer So Majestic has performed well for the yard, with her close Listed third at 150/1 in May bringing about a remarkable 25lb rise from her lowly pre-race mark of 70 and one from which she’s acquitted herself well from in subsequent handicaps. Her recent stakes form – including when well behind Believing at 100/1 at the Curragh last month – shows what she’s up against here. 

Trainer: William Knight Odds: 50/1

An interesting contender given her unusual profile, a three-year-old with just eight prior starts and only one at five furlongs. She represents a trainer having a fine campaign though and this Frosted filly just faded late on in Group One company at Meydan last time. Horses with eight starts or less have significantly underperformed in the Nunthorpe since 1997 (7.2 per cent, -£64.12, 0.55 A/E) and, as his price suggests, there are more questions than answers in this company at this early stage of his career. 

Many of these were in action at Goodwood last time in the Qatar King George Stakes and, while that looks a key formline with the likes of Asfoora, Big Evs and Believing all expcted to strongly feature, I'm keener on one at a bigger price who contested calmer waters last time. 

BRADSELL was right towards the top of the tree as a two-year-old a few seasons ago despite his campaign being shortened by injury and, after Royal Ascot success, he ran a excellent race in this last year from a disadvantageous position, showing real speed, despite the fact that three-year-olds generally don't fare so well in this top sprint.

A year older now after a confidence-boosting return at Deauville last time, I don't think he's any worse a model now and this typically tough and game type is fancied to make a bold bid once again in a race that as the real look of a long-term target. 

Asfoora is unlikely to be far away, though at a bigger price Believing impressed on the clock last time and this improver is preferred at the odds to take second.