Guinness Kerry National: five runners for any shortlist

The Tote Galway Plate could well prove the key form line to Wednesday’s Guinness Kerry National, with no less than eight contenders from that big race set to line up once again here with the addition of 10 new faces in the big highlight from Listowel.

Hewick did well to win at Galway after dramatically being impeded by a loose horse up the home straight, but he has been hit with an 8lb rise for that and, from what I can find, only one horse has won a handicap chase from a mark of 163 or higher in Ireland since 2003 and that was Commanche Court, who prevailed by half a length at very short odds (30-100F) in a four-runner race at Naas in February 2003.

Both Brahma Bull and Annamix placed in the Guinness Kerry National last year, but no horse rated 150 or higher has won this race from 20 attempts since 1999 and the average median weight of the first five home in the past 10 runnings has remained fairly consistent, with 10st 8lb being about the ballpark figure and 10st 6lb to 11st proving the most fruitful range.

Here is a closer look at five contenders this year.

Trainer: Shark Hanlon Odds: 7-1

Despite the opening spiel and the fact that Hewick would be something of a stats-buster if winning this, it would be somewhat remiss not to mention him and there's no reason why he can't make a bold bid.

Bought for €850, he’s given his connections quite a journey with success in last season’s valuable Bet365 Gold Cup and now bids to land another big prize after Galway glory. It’s perfectly feasible the seven-year-old could be getting better after only eight runs over fences under Rules, the good ground here will be ideal and he won at this meeting last season. He’s also going back up to three miles now and that is definitely another plus.

Many will be cheering him on given his connections and rags-to-riches story and it doesn’t take great foresight to see him running a big race – it’s just whether that weight will ultimately tell.

Trainer: Willie Mullins Odds: 7-1

The lightly-raced eight-year-old has taken time to get things together after a somewhat underwhelming novice hurdle campaign for top connections, but he’s yet to finish outside of the first three in six runs over fences, has proven adept in big fields and is unexposed at staying trips over the larger obstacles.

He jumped well down the inside at Galway and did suffer interference at a key time, late in the race and when travelling uphill on the turn for home. That may have accounted for him not finishing quite as strongly as expected in the final 100 yards, while he's entitled to come on a little since the Galway run was on the back of a 13-week break.

Superficially, the Kerry National has not been the strongest race for Closutton down the years with three winners from 42 runners since 1997. However, Mullins has saddled the runner-up on five occasions and had the second and third home in the last two years.

The yard never seems out of form, but the stable has certainly made a decent start to this year's Harvest Festival with six winners from just the eight races it has contested from 11 runners.

Trainer: Gordon Elliott Odds: 12-1

She is unexposed as a stayer and, while there are some jumping concerns after last time, she is progressive and can make her presence felt.

It was all over before it started last time, coming down at the first fence in the Galway Plate when taking off far too early and giving Jack Kennedy no chance of staying on. It’s around 30 seconds or so to get to the first in the Plate but nearer 20 seconds in the Kerry National so hopefully this course configuration can lend a hand early on and allow her to get into a rhythm.

While at a lower level, her progression is hard to knock as a whole and she did well to win from a positional disadvantage off a slow pace at Downpatrick three starts ago before her Midlands National romp back at the same track.

That’s been her only start at three miles so far and it’s clear there could be more to come, with Michael O’Sullivan now claiming 7lb in the plate to ease her burden of 10-8 from a mark of 145.

Trainer: Joseph O'Brien Odds: 20-1

He comes with some risks attached, but in an open race he makes appeal at 20-1 from a handicapping perspective.

Something of a regular in Grade One company during his novice hurdle days, he’s another lightly-raced chaser with just seven starts but has run big races in some of the biggest events around, notably when successful in the Galway Plate three years ago and when fifth in the Irish Grand National earlier in the year.

It's generally preferable to be on or near the pace at Fairyhouse and the winner Lord Lariat made all while the second and third were close up, so to finish fifth despite some mistakes in the straight was a commendable effort and he looks strongest at the finish. He’s back down to same mark of 148 now and, while he was down the field in the Grimes Hurdle last time, that was similarly the case before his Galway triumph two years ago.

The cheekpieces are back on and he could show up well under Luke Dempsey.

Trainer: Joseph O'Brien Odds: 11-1

Another of Joseph O’Brien’s sextet, he was going quite nicely out in front in the Galway Plate last time before slipping on landing after getting in a bit too close to the fifth fence from home. He has the potential to play a part in the shake-up this time.

While he wasn’t really tested out in front at Galway, he got into a nice rhythm and that is important for a horse who often proved headstrong in his younger years. He contested Grade One company as a juvenile and has gone off at fairly short prices on most of his 13 Rules runs, so perhaps he’s starting to belated fulfil his potential and the front-running tactics which have proven successful over fences (previously dropped in to try and get him to settle) should translate well to Listowel.

While he hasn’t been missed in the market and the absence of Shane Fitzgerald in the plate this time isn’t ideal – the two have struck up a good relationship and that excellent conditional is good value for his claim – Bryan Cooper isn’t too shabby a deputy and prices of 14-1 or more would make him an each-way proposition.