Appleby aces have every chance of going the distance at Epsom

For those hoping we would see a colt attempt the Triple Crown this year, then the right horse probably won the Betfred 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday.

It is hard to say it was a deep renewal of the race outside of the places, but it would not be no surprise should the first three home all scoop Group One honours this season.

Much to the delight (or worry) of Betfred, the winner could be a genuine Derby contender, and then who knows?

Connections may be tempted to head to Doncaster in September and aim to collect the sponsor’s £2 million bonus for winning all three British Classics – something not done since Nijinsky 55 years ago and rarely attempted since, although it is worth remembering the exceptional Oh So Sharp won the fillies’ Triple Crown in 1985.

Since West Australian in 1853, 11 more colts have secured the Triple Crown and a total of 37 Derby winners have previously captured the first colt’s British Classic of the season, with Camelot the last to do so in 2012. That colt was also the last to attempt the Triple Crown, but he finished second in the St Leger, becoming the tenth horse to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown but fail to win the third.

After the first Betfred British Classic of the season, a delighted Charlie Appleby said: “You could see him as a Derby horse and that’s what we had our minds set on in the winter,” before adding, “He lengthened all the way to the line, he looks like a horse who could get further… I think it would be hard not to think about the Derby strongly.” 

At the time of writing, he is a 7-2 chance with the sponsors to land the Epsom Classic.

A son of a US Triple Crown hero himself in Justify, who of course sired last year’s Derby victor City Of Troy, it would be hard to argue against Ruling Court’s Derby credentials on that front.

The €2.3 million breeze-up graduate has a mixture of speed and stamina on his dam side, being out of the High Chaparral mare Inchargeofme, who stayed just over a mile and finished fourth at Grade Three level in America over 1m4f.

She is a sister to the Racing Post Trophy runner-up Johan Strauss, who could hardly be called a middle-distance performer, but also the Criterium de Saint-Cloud third Mythical, who stayed 1m6f. Ruling Court’s third dam Incheni was a Stakes winner over 1m2f, while multiple middle-distance Group One winner Poet’s Word can also be found further down his pedigree.

There is certainly cause for hope that Appleby’s latest 2000 Guineas winner will stay further, not only on a pedigree front, but also on running style.

Those watching the race on Saturday might have noticed just how long it took for William Buick to pull him up after the line. Despite his stamina credentials, one could argue that it was his turn of foot which won him the race; the runner-up Field Of Gold failed to go with the winner running into the dip and only closed on him in the final half-furlong. 

Whilst Appleby’s previous Derby winner Adayar ran in Sandown’s Classic Trial and Lingfield’s Derby Trial en-route to Epsom glory, his first winner of the race, Masar, ran in Dubai over the winter (was well beaten) before then winning the Craven and finishing third in the 2000 Guineas. He was untested at further than a mile before his Derby triumph. 

Desert Flower

rates another exciting prospect for Epsom in four and a half weeks’ time, with all the indications suggesting that she is more likely than not to target the Oaks.

A different model to Ruling Court, she is five from five and was a Group One winner at two, landing the Fillies’ Mile by five and a half lengths. She was not as visually impressive on Sunday when winning the 1000 Guineas, but she stuck to her task well and did her best work late on having made all.

A total of 49 fillies have won Newmarket’s 1000 Guineas and The Oaks – the fillies’ Classic double. With three fillies having achieved the feat since 2000, namely Kazzia (2002), Minding (2016) and Love (2020). 

As to Desert Flower’s ability to stay further, there is no doubt that her dam Promising Run, a daughter of Hard Spun who won Group Twos at 7f and 1m1f, stayed 1m2f, but she only had one attempt at 1m4f, and she was well beaten.

However, most of the progeny produced by Desert Flower’s second dam Aviacion, have stayed at least that trip and there are even several 2m winners in the pedigree. Night Of Thunder’s best three-year-old last year, Economics, swerved the Derby having won the Dante and landed the Irish Champion Stakes, but is yet to try 1m4f.

Desert Flower’s jockey William Buick was effusive in his praise for the filly and seemed positive about her chances of stretching out over further, saying: “I think she could be (an Oaks filly), that's the race everyone was thinking of beforehand,” while Appleby added: "I see no reason why she can't stretch out to the mile and a half, she does all her best work in the last furlong. She settles well, they're nice conversations to be having.”

Appleby can take confidence from the fact that most of the recent 1000 Guineas winners to have lined up in the Oaks have either won or gone very close.  Minding and Love won both Classic in 2016 and 2020 respectively, while David Wachman’s Legatissimo came within a short head of the double when ran down late by Qualify in 2015.

Whilst both of the weekend’s Guineas winners look likely to stay at least 1m2f, the same can be said of some of the runners they beat on the Rowley Mile.

In the 2000 Guineas, Wimbledon Hawkeye will need to improve a great deal to win a Derby but looks crying out for further, whilst Tornado Alert is also bred to stay further. In the 1000 Guineas, a step up to 1m2f for runner-up Flight was muted as a possibility by trainer Ollie Sangster after the race, and although there would be a strong temptation to stick to a mile given how close she went on Sunday, 1m2f looks well within her compass on breeding.

Interestingly, RaceiQ data also shows that she clocked the longest max stride and average stride length of the entire field. 

I also flagged up the eyecatching fourth-place finish in the 1000 Guineas by Saeed bin Suroor’s once-raced Elwateen on Sunday.

She looks very much one for further has a near-identical race record to bin Suroor’s first Oaks heroine Moonshell, who was beaten the same distance (two and a quarter lengths) in the Guineas 9, also on her second start, before winning at Epsom. It will be interesting to watch the trials for both Classics over the coming weeks, but as ever, two fascinating Epsom Classic await.