Goodwood Cup Super Stats: Dubai Future the selection

Sometimes there is no substitute for experience and that has often been the case in the Goodwood Cup in terms of trends, with only one three-year-old winner - Stradivarius in 2017, the first of his four successes in the race – since Lucky Moon in 1990.

Indeed, the average age of winners in that period is 5.4, with seven of those winning the race on more than one occasion. Ten of the last 12 winners had at least 11 previous Flat runs under their belt, too. Put bluntly, it’s the old boys who keep coming out on top in this race.

Favourites also have an excellent record, with all but two of the last nine winners sent off the clear market leader, including Kyprios – who won his second Goodwood Cup - 12 months ago. There will be a new name on the trophy this year, however, with Aidan O’Brien’s star having since been retired.

A new Ballydoyle stayer is this year’s favourite: four-year-old Illinois. He’s yet to win in four starts at Group 1 level but is fancied to prove hard to beat here having chased home Trawlerman over the extended two-and-a-half-mile trip of the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot last time.

Eleven of the last 12 winners won on their previous start, however, a stat that would suggest that the favourite’s stablemate Scandinavia will play a leading part, the progressive three-year-old having easily won the Bahrain Trophy on his most recent outing. The lack of success for youngsters in this race is just too offputting though.

Last year’s runner-up Sweet William is a six-year-old and ticks the boxes on the age trend, though was a long way behind Illinois at Royal Ascot, but the oldest representatives this year are the nine-year-olds Trueshan and Dubai Future.

Trueshan won this race in 2021, but it is the last-named who gets the vote to outrun his odds having bounced back to form when splitting Illinois and Sweet William last month. He has stacks of experience and if the forecast showers stay away, is likely to go off at too big a price.