Friday tips: Dave Nevison shares his best three bets

Lucinda Russell’s eight-year-old msy be worth chancing in this marathon event despite clearly not being in the best of form this season. 

He has dropped to a mark of 120, almost a stone lower than he rose to after winning a handicap at Musselburgh in February last year. He won that race, a 0-150 grade contest, in good style off a mark of 119 so is only 1lb higher and has never raced in a 0-125 contest since. 

His jumping has come to be an issue in the better races he has been in recently, but he is up against more lowly opposition this time. Hope is also derived from his only run at Perth, where he came third off a mark of 133 last September and it certainly seems as though a flat right-handed track may bring out the best in him. 

Was a late withdrawal due to ground at the Scottish National meeting and his previous run in the Ultima was scuppered at the start, so he is due a change of luck and this race looks a good opportunity. 

His two key form pointers are convincing wins in two novice events in midwinter, while his fifth at Cheltenham over 2½ miles looks a very strong performance, especially over a trip well short of his optimum. 

That run was mainly to give him experience of Cheltenham before the Ultima but even though he was beaten 15 lengths, and never in the race, he was closing up behind a subsequent Festival winner plus a winner at the big Ayr meeting. He will be much better suited by conditions here and can get back on track over three miles. 

It looks significant that this ten-year-old has been given a wind operation after he disappointed at Fakenham last time. If the operation has had a positive effect, he should go very well here. 

That was only Wa Wa’s second run for Murphy after a promising sighter at Market Rasen on his stable debut, where he stayed on nicely over an inadequate trip. 

Lewis Saunders takes 7lb off, with trip and ground also to suit.