Turf Focus: five best bets at the Breeders’ Cup

Where else to start on the opening Future Stars Friday than with one of, if not the most talented filly in Ballydoyle, Precise. The daughter of Starspangledbanner has been dealt a bad draw out in gate 13, but she should still have too much for the opposition and her nearest rivals in the betting have hardly been handed plum draws either.

She pulverised the opposition at Newmarket in the Fillies’ Mile last time out, coming from the rear to win easily by three and a quarter lengths, and the vibes from the yard this week have been extremely positive. Aidan O’Brien has won two of the past three renewals of this race and he can take that record to three from four.

The value in the final race on the opening day looks to be with Wesley Ward’s colt. Outfielder signalled he was well above average when showing plenty of early speed and winning by a wide margin on debut at Churchill Downs.

He was then sent over to Deauville to contest the Prix Morny on his next start. That was not a decision that his top trainer would have taken if he did not think he was up to the challenge – his previous winners of the French Group One have been No Nay Never, Lady Aurelia and Campanelle, so that perhaps gives you some idea of the regard in which Outfielder is held.

And whilst he came home fourth, beaten two and three quarter lengths by Venetian Sun and the re-opposing (and more experienced) Gstaad, he ran creditably on what was just his second start and the first time he was properly asked a serious question during a race.

This step up in trip asks obvious questions, but he is well drawn and if he is going to stay a mile anywhere, it is probably on a tight track like this. It is worth noting that his full-brother stayed a mile without issues and his dam also stayed further than this.

Much like most of the top sprints in Europe this year, this looks wide open and it may be worth chancing one at a bigger price. The 12-1 about Shisospicy makes plenty of appeal given her record Stateside for all she has not raced over on the West Coast yet.

She has won her past two races in the US by a total of seven and a quarter lengths and whilst this is much tougher, it is difficult to know where her ceiling lies. She disappointed in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, but I am happy to draw a line through that as she did too much early on and paid the price in the closing stages, doing well to be beaten eight lengths.

She bounced back to form on her only start since, landing a Grade Two at Kentucky Downs by three lengths at the beginning of September. There, she beat Sandringham Stakes third and Oak Tree Stakes winner Tabiti by over four lengths.

Her early gate speed can help her get a good position here and her young trainer has proven he can ready a three-year-old sprinter for the big stage; he hit the crossbar at the Breeders’ Cup last year, saddling the runner-up in the Sprint, and he also trained the runner-up in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot.

What a fabulous horse Rebel’s Romance has been. He held off two Japanese challengers to win this last year over the same course and distance, but arrives back in California 12 months later at a bigger price despite arguably showing better form this season.

That is, of course, due to the presence of Minnie Hauk at the head of the market, who warrants huge respect having finished second in the Arc, but this is her first start outside of Europe and she had a hard race in France, so I am going to play the battle-hardened proven international performer here at bigger odds.

Charlie Appleby has a phenomenal record at the Breeders’ Cup and Rebel’s Romance is drawn well and is a solid proposition at a track we know he likes. He has won a scarcily believable £11.3m in prize money and his only defeat in Europe this year was when finishing third in the King George behind Calandagan and Kalpana. It goes without saying, a repeat of that effort, or any of his Group One wins, will see him bang there in this.

The value bet in the Breeders’ Cup Mile looks to be The Lion In Winter, who ran a cracker in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, beating all of his rivals bar the 100-1 outsider Cicero’s Gift. 

It is no surprise to see Notable Speech at the head of the market, but he looks skinny enough given for a horse that was beaten in every start this year before winning a weak Grade One at Woodbine last month.

The Lion In Winter has not won at all this year, but he has placed on three occasions and has the form to match the favourtie, yet is a far bigger price in receipt of his weight-for-age allowance. Since a no-show in the Prix Jacques Le Marois, he has finished a close third behind the re-opposing Sahlan in the Prix du Moulin and then second on Champions Day last time out.

This will be the quickest ground he has encountered for some time, but he won the Acomb last year on quick ground and I get the feeling he has not yet reached his peak over a mile yet, and if there is a pair that can get improvement out of him, it is Christophe Soumillon and Aidan O’Brien.