Ebor Festival: five to note from RaceiQ

No sooner have we dusted ourselves off from Glorious Goodwood than we are straight into the Ebor Festival at York. With plenty of re-matches to get our teeth stuck into as well as other exceptional performances to reflect on, here are five horses to follow on the Knavesmire based on what we've seen so far this season.

All eyes will be on City Of Troy, the horse that has split opinions so far this season. He bounced back from his flop in the Guineas with an emphatic win in the Derby, but his win in the Eclipse was hard-earned. 

Whilst he still looks tough to beat, the eye wasn’t blown away on his latest start. This was backed up by the data too, so it’s a horse down the list in the betting that catches my attention.

Docklands has been a very consistent performer at Ascot over the last two seasons, landing the Britannia last season and putting up a bold show in the Queen Anne this year. 

He has a potent turn of foot up the Ascot straight mile and I think that could be put to good use based on his impressive second in behind Charyn last time. He has finished with a finishing speed percentage of over 100% in all bar one of his races over the past two seasons which shows how well he has hit the line each time. 

This is going to be a tactical affair, but will need this to be a test of stamina. This strong pace will help Docklands settle and, based on his staying ability over a mile, he’s sure to be there to pick up the pieces. 

Celandine needs to bounce back from a couple of defeats since her impressive win, but the data suggests this test is just up her street. 

When she ran at Goodwood she put up a very bold show over a trip that was clearly too short for her. She was the fastest out of the stalls that day, taking 2.34 seconds to reach 20mph, and needed every inch of that advantage. The first and fourth furlongs of the race were the only ones she was able to go through faster than the winner Big Mojo, suggesting that she simply wasn’t fast enough for a sharp five furlongs at Goodwood. 

One reason for that may be her massive stride. Her average stride length of 8.5 metres was the largest in the field, so it’s not surprising that she was unable to turn that over quickly enough to go as fast as the others. 

York is still a sharp track, but the extra furlong looks perfect. Her FSP of 99.11% from when she won over six furlongs shows that she will see the trip out no problem. The fact that she can use her stride so efficiently too at such high speed will play out well here and I think she will go very close because of it. 

For those of you who caught up with my Goodwood reflections, you may not be surprised to hear my thoughts on this race!

One of the eyecatchers of that meeting for me was The Strikin Viking and he was fatest out of the stalls in the Richmond Stakes, taking 2.36 seconds to reach 20mph, and kept close tabs on the leaders. Significantly, he was the horse in the race with the lowest average stride frequency at 2.31 strides per second. This means he was able to run more efficiently through the race by taking less strides than the others in the field and suggests why he was able to see out the trip so well. 

The race pace collapsed from a 10.57s in the second furlong to a 12.78s in the final furlong. The Strikin Viking was the horse ridden close to the pace who managed to keep going to a greater extent than any of his fellow pacesetters, so a more conventionally-run race really should play to his advantage better. 

I may sound like a broken record by this point, but I believe this filly has a big race in her this season over this trip. 

We are talking small margins here and the nature of the track at York should prove in her favour too. Both are sharp tracks, but without Goodwood’s downhill start the five furlongs at York is ever so slightly slower. To put this into context, the track record over five furlongs at both tracks is held by Battaash. At Goodwood it is 55.62 secs and at York it is 55.90 secs.

was the slowest out of the stalls at Goodwood last time, taking 2.27s to reach 20mph. Since they swing so quickly downhill after they break, she was on the back foot straight away. At the end of the first furlong she was already 0.65s - or nearly four lengths - behind . She was then faster than him in the second, fourth and last furlongs, making up 0.56s in the last two furlongs alone. 

Back on a slightly more conventional track and hoping for a slightly better break, there is every chance that she can turn tables now.

is yet to win this season but has gone pretty close more than once and might just get his break here. 

On his return in the Commonwealth Cup he didn’t get the best break, with only one horse slower than him to 20mph (2.73s). It was the interference afterwards that I believe had the biggest impact, however. 

Because of everything that went on at the start he was already 0.53s, or around three lengths, behind Inisherin by the end of the first furlong. Where the winner is such a strong stayer over this trip, it was always going to be a tough task to regain that ground, so he did well to get within two and a quarter lengths of that rival by the end. 

Then in the Hackwood Stakes at it was a similar story. He gave away 0.68s, or about four lengths, to eventual winner by the end of the first furlong yet he was then quicker than the winner through every other furlong of the race, just ultimately being unable to make up the ground given away. 

Lake Forest covered the final two furlongs 0.3s quicker than the winner, backing up that he had too much to do at the end. His FSP of 101.33% suggests that this step up to seven furlongs should be no problem and the early pace should be calmer - which should hopefully help him stay in the race early doors.