Dublin Racing Festival: Cheltenham Festival movers and shakers

The thrills came thick and fast at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend.

Numerous runners advanced their claims for Cheltenham next month, but others suddenly have more than one hill ahead of them.

Who were the big Cheltenham market movers – and were the price changes justified? Here’s what the odds compilers made of the action, and verdicts on whether they got their sums right.

Race: Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle. Before the race: 40-1. After the race: 12-1.

He stayed on well to split Good Land and Sandor Clegane in the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle. It was a step up on previous efforts and his pedigree is stacked full of stamina, so the step up to 3m at Cheltenham should unlock further improvement. He will give Gordon Elliott hopes of a first victory in the race.

Verdict: There’s no standout performer in this division and those double-figure digits are tempting.

Race: Weatherbys Champion Bumper. Before: 40-1. After: 8-1.

The John Kiely-trained five-year-old burst a few bubbles when returning from eight months off to land the Future Stars bumper, a race well-named given that recent winners have been Envoi Allen, Appreciate It and Facile Vega. The son of champion sprinter Muhaarar, out of a Galileo mare, hardly screams Cheltenham Festival winner in waiting, but he beat a string of previous winners and the time was slick.

Verdict: It’s never easy putting together the threads of the bumper form but he would no doubt be a lot shorter in the betting if in a bigger yard.

Race: Turners Novices’ Chase. Before: 12-1. After: 6-1.

Went into plenty of notebooks when staying on stoutly to be second in the Goffs Irish Arkle, having been tapped for toe. However, Mighty Potter put up an even better audition 24 hours later. And students of the formbook will have observed he was previously a distant third to that horse (beaten 18 lengths) in the Drinmore, albeit on ground that was probably softer than he enjoys.

Verdict: The seven-year-old has a willing attitude but the layers got their scissors out before Mighty Potter had strutted his stuff 24 hours later.

Race: Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. Before: 9-2. After: 10-1.

As short as 5-2 for the Champion Chase at Cheltenham before the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase, you can now get double-figure digits. It's been that kind of season in the ante-post market for the two-mile feature. Most of us were expecting a procession but the writing was on the wall a little way out, with Gentleman De Mee never looking like stopping. Willie Mullins had considered him more of a Ryanair horse at the start of the season, and perhaps he will go full circle after this. Blue Lord is 6-1 for that contest.

Verdict: This was a significant bump in the road for him, and of course he was well-held behind Edwardstone in the Arkle last year. He could yet end up in the Ryanair, especially if Allaho's path to that race hits another problem.

Race: Sporting Life Arkle Chase. Before: 7-1. After: 9-4.

The Goffs Irish Arkle had a superb cast and was run in a time 9sec quicker than the handicap chase over the same trip later on the card, which was won by the 140-rated Final Orders carrying 4lb less.

El Fabiolo surged clear to win by ten lengths despite a bad blunder four out - Daryl Jacob blamed himself for the error - and it will be a surprise if those that he defeated can turn the tables next month.

Verdict: I've no doubt Hhe should be the clear Arkle favourite after such a display but Jonbon, who has beaten a total of five rivals over fences, still heads the market at 13-8. They had a great tussle over hurdles at Aintree in April and the rematch promises to be a cracker.

Race: Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Before: 4-5. After: 6-1.

A topsy-turvy weekend for Willie Mullins will have included him scouring Leopardstown for the wheels that fell off Facile Vega. Previously unbeaten in six starts, he went off at 4-9 for the in the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle to enhance his towering reputation and when left clear at halfway, after High Definition had blundered away his rider, his backers would have been on good terms with themselves. However, Facile Vega was running on empty before the home turn and ended up trailing home a leg-weary last of the five finishers. Leopardstown fell mute.

I played his race plus the Irish Champion Hurdle in tandem to see what might have occured. At the last hurdle down the back straight, Facile Vega is something like 6-7 sec ahead of State Man (that's 24-28 lengths, although admittedly my methodology was pretty crude). That tells you plenty, and explains why Mullins afterwards made reference to "riding him like a racehorse next time, not a machine".

Verdict: This run was too bad to be true and Mullins's instinct that he simply went off too hard is correct. Will this experience leave a mark heading into the spring? It was an awful prep and Mullins now has little more than five weeks to give him a cuddle and revive him before Cheltenham.

Race: Weatherbys Champion Bumper. Before: 40-1. After: 8-1.

She had been impressive when winning on her debut at Sligo in October and was similarly impressive, again breezing clear under Patrick Mullins (who bred her) after loitering out the back of the field. Her dam was a half-sister to Yorkhill, so there's Cheltenham blood in her pedigree. Relegate won this race for Mullins in 2018 before winning at Cheltenham - one of a dozen winners the trainer has had in the race. Some firms go as short as 4-1.

Verdict: She's the same odds as A Dream To Share, but I fancy he achieved more 24 hours earlier, when winning in a time that was about 4sec swifter. So either he's the wrong price, or she is. Perhaps both.

Race: Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Before: 20-1. After: 6-1.

Those of you still receiving counselling after his defeat in the Boodles last season, off a mark of 129, have my sympathy. He won his first two races this term by an aggregate of 101 lengths and defied a rating of 143 in a handicap on Sunday with plenty to spare, despite his habit of jumping to his right. His pace and high cruising speed are potent weapons, but will he be able to afford to give away lengths at his obstacles next month? The Supreme looks a better fit than the Ballymore, not least because he will have less hurdles to negotiate. He’s also 6-1 favourite for the County Hurdle, and 7-1 favourite for the Coral Cup, but Rich Ricci will now surely have Grade One races in mind for him.

Verdict: His strong-travelling style and familiar silks are seductive, but he’s only 6-1 because the layers have got in a muddle after the flop of former favourite Facile Vega.

Race: JCB Triumph Hurdle. Before: 10-1. After: 5-1.

She’d been no match for Lossiemouth at Leopardstown over Christmas, when having her first start for Willie Mullins, but she turned the tables on 3lb worse terms in the Donohue Marquees Spring Juvenile Hurdle. Things fell her way, with Lossiemouth enduring a nightmare run, but this was clearly an improved effort and it’s debatable whether she got the credit she deserved. The past two winners of the Spring Hurdle have gone on to Triumph glory.

Verdict: The each-way thieves may well be spotting an opportunity here. Lossiemouth has been nudged out to 15-8.

Race: Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. Before: 66-1. After: 10-1

“We forget about horses very quickly in this game. He proved today that he's still there,” Willie Mullins said after Gentleman De Mee had bounced back to form with a seven-length drubbing of Blue Lord in the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase. He had finished 40 lengths behind the same rival at Leopardstown over Christmas, having also been well beaten in the Tingle Creek. Which version of him will turn up at Cheltenham? It’s difficult to predict but what does seem apparent is that he’s at his most effective when able to dominate. There’s going to be no hiding places in the feature race on day two of the Festival.

Verdict: Good luck if you hadn’t forgotten about him. His revised odds make little appeal.

Race: Ballymore Novices Hurdle. Before: 12-1. After: 9-2.

Barry Connell’s charge had been 25-1 for the Ballymore after his win over Christmas but had already shrunk to 12-1 before his taking win the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle. The past three winners of the race have gone on to finish second at Cheltenham. The seven-year-old won with authority from some smart opposition and there was no mistaking Connell’s confidence in him when he was a guest on Luck On Sunday today.

Verdict: He’s clearly a player but Hermes Allen and Impaire Et Passe rightly remain favoured in the betting. The 6-1 looks about right.

Race 1: Unibet Champion Hurdle. Before: 8-1. After: 20-1.

Race 2: Close Brothers Mares Hurdle. Before: 9-1. After: 4-1.

Where next for Honeysuckle? The Champion Hurdle, Mares’ Hurdle or breeding sheds? She gave her all in the Irish Champion Hurdle but simply could not lay a glove on State Man. Kenny Alexander, her owner, was swift to discount the Champion Hurdle, although did add the caveat that he would be guided by Henry de Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore. She would have an outstanding chance in the Mares’ Hurdle – Timeform had her 12lb clear top before Sunday – and just imagine the scenes if she wins and then bows out. Only De Alexander, De Bromhead and Blackmore will know whether their nerves can take it.

Verdict: Don’t be tempted by those inflated Champion Hurdle odds. If she gets the green light to run in the Mares’ Hurdle, then 4-1 would be massive. But retirement must also be a possibility. In effect, you are betting on a double.

Race: Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Before: 33-1. After 6-1.

He took full advantage of Facile Vega fluffing his lines, sweeping past his subdued stablemate and winning by 11 lengths. It was hard to fathom, as Facile Vega had batted him away with something to spare when they had met over Christmas. The second-season novice was only fifth in the Triumph Hurdle last season.

Verdict: He’s as short as 4-1 in places but that looks possibly the biggest over-reaction of the weekend.

Race: Turners Novices’ Chase. Before: 3-1. After: 13-8.

This hulk of a horse has come of age in his past two starts, winning a strong edition of the Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse in December and following up with authority in the Ladbroke Novice Chase. His jumping was most assured on Sunday and his backers never had a moment of worry. Monkfish won this prize two years ago before landing the Brown Advisory, while Galopin Des Champs, successful 12 months ago, would have followed up in the Turners but for exiting at the final fence.

Verdict: I imagine he would be odds-on but for his below-par run at Cheltenham last year. That’s the one niggle for his growing fan club.

Race: Pertemps Network Final. Before: 33-1. After: 8-1.

He qualified for the Pertemps by finishing a distant fourth at Leopardstown over Christmas but, rated only 125 in Ireland, was going to need a big run in the build-up to help bump up his rating. Some clearly put the pieces of the jigsaw together (not me) as he was a well-backed 4-1 chance and won without being fully extended. Job done. Six of the past seven Pertemps winners have been trained in Ireland.

Verdict: He’s a short as 5-1 in places and it’s not difficult to see the 8-1 shrinking, even though the handicapper will be able to take a swipe at him. Gavin Cromwell knows a thing or two about nurturing staying hurdlers.

Race: Unibet Champion Hurdle. Before: 4-1. After: 100-30.

He’d almost certainly be unbeaten in seven starts for Mullins had he not fallen in the closing stages on his debut. Since then, he’s gone from strength to strength and his fourth successive Grade One success, in the Chanelle Pharma Irish Champion Hurdle, was gained in commanding fashion. They say you should never be afraid of one horse, although when that horse in Constitution Hill, you are entitled to at least a long gulp.

Verdict: Hard to believe he will not be a bigger price on the day because Constitution Hill has simply looked on a different plane.