Dublin Racing Festival: ante-post reaction and RaceiQ clues

What more can you say about the awesome Galopin Des Champs? 

His latest exhibition was a pleasure to witness, and the bad news for those tasked with lowering his colours is that the jumping of the 11-time Grade One winner seems more measured than ever. 

He got a Jump Index score of 8.7 here, the highest figure he has achieved since RaceiQ started crunching the numbers about two years ago. The volume of the receptions he is getting after his races is going up, too, but those metrics are not measured! 

The nine-year-old jumped best of the whole field at the fourth, fifth and final fences. Overall, he gained only 1.21 lengths in the air but compare that to a year ago when he surrendered the best part of 12 lengths to Fastorslow. 

A product of his more efficient jumping means he will have probably had an easier race than when lifting this prize for the past two years, especially when you factor in that Paul Towned was able to dictate a less than frenetic gallop. The combination attacked the final fence at 32.81mph, whereas they had only nudged more than 30mph once at the first 13 obstacles. 

The winning time of 6min 20.3sec was 7.8sec quicker than the previous year (smaller field and softer ground) but 6.2sec slower than two years ago, when the going was also officially yielding. 

Galopin Des Champs is now chalked up between 4-6 and 1-2 to win a third Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup next month. Those who kept the faith and supported him at 5-1 after his comeback defeat in the John Durkan, in November, will be on good terms with themselves. 

Grangeclare West upped his game to chase him home, but third-placed Fact To File again did not convince with his stamina. The latter is a best-priced 2-1 for the Ryanair Chase and that seems his most obvious destination. 

What a shame that Lossiemouth departed four out after she and State Man had raced clear of their three inferior rivals. 

The pair were going a proper gallop, with Danny Mullins, aboard Lossiemouth, intent on trying to run the finish out of her stablemate. We will never know what would have happened. 

Lossiemouth completed the first mile in 1min 55.55sec. To add some context to that, Kopek Des Bordes had taken 6.21sec longer (about 25 lengths) to complete the same part of the journey in his race, carrying the same weight. 

Kopek Des Bordes ended up winning in a time almost 2sec quicker than Stage Man, but clearly that does not tell half the tale. 

State Man was travelling smoothly in Lossiemouth’s slipstream when the mare came down, doing well to stand up after getting in a tangle with her. After that, he merely had to negotiate the final three flights to secure his hat-trick of victories in the race. I would not read too much into his Finishing Speed percentage being 94.88%, which would usually suggest a horse is glimpsing the dark side. 

The reigning champ is now a top-priced 8-1 to retain his crown, with Lossiemouth pushed out to 5-1. The last horse to win a Champion Hurdle having been beaten earlier in the season – like this pair – was Jezki back in 

2014. 

Constitution Hill is no bigger than 8-13, with Brighterdaysahead 4-1. 

Majborough had created a deep impression when wining on his chasing bow at Fairyhouse and built on that with a commanding nine-length defeat of Touch Me Not. 

There was the odd umping blemish along the way, but he never looked like falling and this is a big horse with feet as quick as James Devine, so do not be deceived into thinking he lost much momentum or ground. 

The winning time was 1.5sec under standard and was 2.2sec quicker than the Listed handicap chase over the same trip later in the afternoon, in which the 148-rated My Mate Mozzie was a seven-length runner-up. 

The RaceiQ metrics reveal he gained 8.81 lengths with his jumping, and he got a 9.6 on the Jump Index, to follow the 9.3 he was awarded on debut. 

He gained between 0.9 lengths and 1.49 lengths at seven of the 11 obstacles, and on seven occasions his speed recovery time was 0.4sec or less. In other words, he is the epitome of “landing running”. 

Touch Me Not had given L’Eau Du Sud a scare in the Henry VIII Novces’ Chase on his previous start despite an awful blunder at halfway. He jumped impeccably here but simply could not keep up in the closing stages. 

He went in the race with a rating of 147, while third, Firefox, beaten almost 13 lengths, lined up with a mark of 151. I’d imagine Marlborough will be rated about 160 after this, and clearly, he is well up to the standard of winning an average Arkle. 

This year isn’t an average Arkle, of course, with the equally exciting Sir Gino flying the flag for Britain. It promises to be one of the great clashes of the entire Festival. Sir Gino, on course to run at Newbury next weekend, is quoted at 8-11, with Majborough a best-priced 5-2 with BetVictor. 

“We’re looking at a good ‘un here,” said commentator Jerry Hannon after Kopek Des Bordes pinged the final flight a fresh horse with his rivals, including five stablemates, toiling behind him. 

The only anxious moment for supporters of the odds-on shot came turning for home when the loose Eastern Command, who had bungled away his rider, briefly threatened to get in his way. 

But it made no difference as he coasted to a 13-length victory in a time that was 2.2 seconds quicker than State Man (see above for a bit more detail on that) managed in the Irish Champion Hurdle. 

The five-year-old had jumped clumsily when winning on his hurdling debut at Leopardstown over Christmas (he got scores of 4.1 and 4.3 out of 10 at a couple of the flights) but he was transformed here, turning an initial Jump Index score of 5.6 into an 8. 

He jumped best at four of the final six flights, according to RaceiQ, and was “green” at every jump, meaning he gained ground at every obstacle. A murky Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle market suddenly looks crystal clear, and he’s ended the weekend no bigger than 6-4 to win it. 

A dominant display by the imposing Final Demand, who was pouring it on at the finish and won by 12 lengths from Wingmen, who had been beaten a similar distance behind The Yellow Clay in the Lawlor’s Of Naas. 

This race that is generally a pointer to the 3m Albert Bartlett but Final Demand looks more than just a slugger and is now a general 3-1 for the Turners Novices’ Hurdle over three furlongs shorter. He’s disputing favouritism with The New Lion, who can be backed at the same price, while The Yellow Clay on offer at 8-1. 

Final Demand jumped well in mid-division until halfway before Paul Townend invited him to go through the gears. His partner needed little invitation and after nosing ahead going to the final flight, where he was a little careful, he pulled away to win by a dozen lengths. 

The RaceiQ data tells us he gained almost seven lengths with his jumping, with his overall Jump Index score being 7.9. He had been awarded an 8.7 when winning on his debut and, for a big horse, who looks every inch a steeplechaser, he is clearly nimble. 

Champion Bumper winner Jasmin De Vaux jumped better than previously in first-time cheekpieces to finish fourth, albeit he still has plenty to iron out in this department. I cannot see him winning a Grade One in this sphere but he’s going to end up getting a potentially favourable handicap mark. 

Ballyburn tightened his grip at the top of the ante-post betting from the Brown Advisory with what was, ultimately, a decisive victory. 

Last season’s leading novice hurdler is not bossing the opposition as he did over the smaller obstacles, but he shook off the attentions of Croke Park after the final fence and was pulling away at the finish, which augurs well for him when he moves up to 3m at Cheltenham next month. 

There’s little doubt he is a resolute galloper with a willing attitude, but his jumping remains a niggle. 

He got a Jump Index score of 7.4 – better than his previous tallies of 6.7 and 6.1 – but there wasn’t a single fence where he was the most efficient, and he still lost almost three lengths in the air, whereas Croke Park gained almost eight lengths. 

Of course, you can read this both ways. If Ballyburn can sharpen up his technique, then he’s going to be an even more potent force. But if he keeps surrendering time and lengths, then the door is going to be open for something to upstage him. 

He's a top-priced 2-1 for the Brown Advsory, with his prolific stablemate Dancing City chalked up at 100-30. 

The strangest race of the weekend to watch ended with Solness gaining a second successive all-the-way Grade One success. 

Plenty suggested his win at Christmas was a fluke, but I’m not sure you can have two flukes in a month. I would be more generous and suggest he has poached good prizes in races where his main rivals have underperformed. 

He raced in a clear lead from an early stage and won in a time that was 5.6sec under standard. That’s worth a second look, being 4sec quicker than Majborough managed 24 hours earlier, especially as he was racing on a softer surface after overnight rain. 

His jumping was good, especially in the first half of the race, and front-running tactics have clearly added an edge to a horse who finished well adrift of Jonbon in the Tingle Creek at Sandown in December. 

The well-backed El Fabiolo fell at the second fence on his first start for 281 days, while Gaelic Warrior, the favourite, wearing a first-time tongue-tie, never looked like getting involved. The vet reported the latter had a small skin wound over lateral sesamoid left fore but last year’s superb Arkle winner will head to Cheltenham with plenty to prove. 

Marine National briefly threatened to peg back Solness but it proved beyond him. 

Solness is a general 10-1 for the BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase in a market headed by Jonbon at 10-11. Il Est Francais is 11-2 but would surely be shorter if its confirmed this race is his target. Gaelic Warrior is out to 6-1. 

A taking victory by Hello Neighbour, who beat Galileo Dame and Lady Vega Allen easier than the narrow margins suggest. 

Some will question the merit of the form as the runner-up had been beaten in a maiden hurdle on her jumping bow, but keep in mind she’s a smart middle-distance performer on the Flat, being rated mid 90s. 

We don’t yet have all the RaceiQ data for the race, but Hello Neighbour jumped efficiently and is clearly blessed with plenty of speed. 

This race has yielded the JCB Triumph Hurdle for the past four years, but the layers remain content to quote Hello Neighbour at 6-1. 

Lulamba, who impressed on his Ascot debut, and East India Dock, already twice a commanding winner at Cheltenham this season, remain ahead of him in the market. 

Highest speed: Solness 35.07mph 

Fastest furlong: Grangeclare West in the Irish Gold Cup (12.73sec after 2m 6f) 

Most lengths gained jumping: Kopek Des Boudes +10.72 

Highest Jump Index Score (out of ten): Willy De Houllie 9.7 when fourth in the Juvenile Hurdle. Majborough (9.6) and Touch Me Not (9.5) did best over fences. 

Winner with lowest Jump Index Score: Ballyburn 7.4 

Top finishing speed percentage: Galopin Des Champs 111.5% 

Winner with lowest finishing speed percentage: State Man 94.88%