Dewhurst duel: how Desert Castle and Darkness Falls measure up
By Andy Stephens
Last Updated: Wed 7 Oct 2026
Andy Stephens studies the credentials of colts who head the betting for next year's 2000 Guineas and Derby ahead of their much anticipated clash at Newmarket on Saturday.
Is the Darley Dewhurst Stakes a better indicator for the 2000 Guineas or the Derby? Avert your eyes from the next paragraph if you want to play along.
The answer is both. Travelling back to 1969, nine winners have gone on to land the Guineas, and the same number have scooped the Derby.
Outstanding among them all was Nijinsky, who used it as a stepping stone to glory in both the Guineas and Derby. He would go on to scoop the St Leger, too, and become the first Triple Crown hero for 35 years. More than half a century later, the wait for another goes on.
We have the prospect of worlds colliding in the 151st edition on Saturday with Desert Castle and Darkness Falls, favourites for the Guineas and Derby respectively, on course to meet for the first time.
The highlight of the Dubai Future Champions Festival might just do exactly what it says on the tin.
They say every day is a learning day, and we are going to glean a lot of knowledge at the weekend. But before a not-to-be-missed episode, let’s review what we know already.
Desert Castle, trained by Charlie Appleby, is a striking son of Frankel out of the prolific Sand Vixen, herself a daughter of Dubawi. His two brothers, Dream Castle and With The Moonlight, proved well above average for the yard.
Darkness Falls, in the care of Aidan O’Brien, is a handsome colt by Camelot out of sprinter You’resobeautiful, herself sired by pace ace No Nay Never. His one sibling, a gelding called The Flying Seagull, is a modest sprinter who has won only one of his 21 races.
On paper, you would choose Desert Castle. And it’s unlikely you would have hit the swap button after their respective debuts.
Darkness Falls had his first start in a five-runner maiden over a mile at Leopardstown on July 23. He was the stable’s second string and finished third at 17-2, albeit it was a performance not without promise. In a messy, slow-run race, RaceiQ reveals he signed off with three “very fast” furlongs.
A fortnight later, Desert Castle was unleashed in a 7f maiden under Billy Loughnane on the July Course.
The eight runners initially went quick through the first furlong, but the next three were something of an amble.
Desert Castle was fourth at this stage before Loughnane invited him to express himself. The response with a fast fifth furlong of 10.98sec that took him into the lead and then a very fast penultimate furlong of 10.88sec.
He would have been very fast in the last furlong, too, but for the champion jockey elect taking things easy. Overall, the time was nothing special, being 0.13sec slower than the RaceiQ average, but those closing stages were easy on the eye.
Darkness Falls stayed over a mile for his second start in another mile maiden on August 29 and the market forewarned that a lot more was expected.
Sent off at 4-6, he bolted up by seven lengths and stopped the clock 1.02sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par. His Time Index was 6.4 when the meeting average was 5.2.
Swagger and staying power
And then came the day last month where the pair ran within an hour of each other and advanced their Classic claims.
Desert Castle was first up in the Group Two Champagne Stakes at Doncaster, with Loughnane again deputising for William Buick.
He sat last of the five runners and got into a lovely rhythm before cruising to the front with a swagger.
His long stride was again a feature. It averaged 7.61 metres, propelling him along on the bridle. The runner-up, Sergei Diaghilev, averaged 6.95 and the 9.35% difference was also reflected by their strides per second: the winner averaged 2.21; the runner-up 2.43.
Desert Castle’s fast fifth furlong of 11.22sec under a motionless Loughnane took him past Silver Dominion and Breacher, and he followed that with a very fast penultimate furlong of 11.09sec to swat aside Gentle Hurricane and Sergei Diaghilev.
He hung a little left once hitting the front, as he had on his debut, but was again fastest in the final furlong, finishing off in 12.21sec under hands and heels.
The sectionals tell us he was quickest in furlongs four, six and seven, plus a fraction off being swiftest in the fifth. In what was a steadily run race, he gave four rivals rated between 100 and 106 a head start and a thumping. He was going almost 36mph as he crossed the winning line.
A second review of his stride pattern reveals how he generated that seemingly effortless injection of pace. The difference between his low minimum frequency of 2.13 strides per second on that day, when ticking over, and his maximum frequency of 2.38, when quickening up, was 11.73 per cent.
The Champagne Stakes was slow to get bubbling, with the Time Index being 3.4 when the meeting average was 5.5. But slow-run races usually lead to congested finishes and this was more like a one-horse exhibition.
Apart from his inclination to lean left, it has been a flawless start by Desert Castle. Saturday will help tell us whether that has just been a bit of immaturity or that he possibly has a chink in his armour.
Enjoy our RaceiQ pace maps
Darkness Falls wasted no time making his own statement in the first running of the Group One Golden Fleece Stakes over nine furlongs at Leopardstown.
As on his previous start, he was again heavily backed, going off at Evens despite some strong opposition among his eight opponents. He officially won on good ground, but the times pointed strongly to it being good to firm.
Nevertheless, this was still clearly the time topper on day one of the Irish Champions Festival.
The RaceiQ Time Index was 9.7, when the meeting average was 8.1. He stopped the clock 3.15sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par, which was based on the official good ground, but still would have been 1.71sec swifter had it been firmer.
As in his first two starts, he showed great gate speed (first to 20mph in 2.36sec) but Ryan Moore was happy to sit fifth as Victory Speech and Nola Soul set overly strong fractions.
It was only in the closing stages that Moore asked Darkness Falls for maximum effort and the response was impressive with his final two splits being 11.95sec and 12.67sec.
He hit the line travelling at 33.58mph. That was 2.39mph slower than Desert Castle at Doncaster but he had travelled two furlongs further in a much stronger run contest.
It was lights out for the opposition even before his dominant last furlong, which was at least 0.44sec quicker than anything else. All in all, it was a tremendous display of stamina and speed.
His average strides per second have been similar to those of Desert Castle, but up to now there’s not been extravagant fluctuations between his minimums and maximums. However, nobody can be in any doubt that he can sustain a gallop.
The Triple Crown dream
The assumption after that performance was that he would probably stick to a mile in the Futurity before reappearing in a Derby trial next season, but I read things differently and suggested backing him for the Triple Crown at the 80-1 offered by William Hill (although I did think the Futurity part made sense).
Those odds had already been wiped by the time O’Brien made headlines a few days later by announcing the Triple Crown was on his mind.
And if you are thinking you have a horse on your hands capable of the feat, why not go the whole hog and take another leaf out of Nijinsky’s book by first landing the Dewhurst?
There cannot be another Dewhurst winner who has previously raced over as far as nine furlongs, and there’s certainly been none in the modern era who have raced over a minimum of a mile beforehand, although such as Frankel and Too Darn Hot did start out over that trip.
O’Brien can play by a different rulebook and one of the chapters clearly encourages doing things back-to-front.
The Verdict: Angus McNae and Josh Kerr unpick the Group One win of Darkness Falls
If Darkness Falls does give him a record-breaking ninth Dewhurst win on Saturday, then I’d imagine the odds on him winning the Triple Crown would be something like 25-1.
Equally, if he is made to look pedestrian down in trip, then you might get an extra zero on those odds.
Desert Castle is seeking to be the 12th colt this century to win the race and still be unbeaten.
Having had only two starts, he lacks some experience, but Tobougg (2000), Shamadarl (2004) and City Of Troy (2023) also won on the back of a couple of starts. Appleby has landed three of the past seven editions so has a hood grasp of the attributes required.
The handicapper has Darkness Falls on 118, and Desert Castle on 116, but the former’s rating is based on his exploits over a mile or more.
Has he got the pace to cope with the drop in trip? The bookmakers do not seem convinced making Desert Castle 8-11 favourite and Darkness Falls 5-2.
I’d have them much closer together, and would be with Darkness Falls at those prices. But holding that 80-1 ticket may skewer my thinking.
The potential party poopers
It was not so long ago that the Juddmonte International was billed as a match between Godolphin (Ombudsman) and Coolmore (Constitution River). Along came the Andrew Balding-trained Item to upstage them.
Balding could repeat the trick with Gentle Hurricane, although it seems unlikely given that he finished almost seven lengths behind Desert Castle in the Champagne Stakes. He raced a bit keenly without any cover, just as he had done when previously splitting Haffner and Trean in the Acomb, but the winner was operating on a different level.
O’Brien has two more possible players in Great Barrier Reef and Raging Bull. He’s losing his touch as he’s not given himself a chance of replicating the epic 1-2-3-4 he achieved in the 2017 running.
Raging Bull is the weak link among the trio and, if he does line-up, it will surely be to set an honest gallop for his much better fancied stablemates.
He made little impression when unfancied on his debut and scrambled home when odds-on for a heavy ground Curragh maiden last time. But he was swiftest to 20mph and never far from the pace, thus putting his hand up for pacemaking duties another day.
Raging Bull is also entered for the Autumn Stakes on the same card, so might be surplus to requirements.
Great Barrier Reef was one of Ballydoyle’s bright lights in the first half of the campaign, winning at The Curragh in April and May before staying on stoutly to land the Coventry at Royal Ascot.
It seems unlikely to be remembered as a vintage edition, with about two lengths covering the first eight home, but Great Barrier Reef did well to pass a dozen rivals in the final two furlongs from his unfavourable low draw. His fast final furlong of 12.31sec stood out among the closing sectionals.
The son of No Nay Never then had 11 weeks off before resurfacing in the Group Three Round Tower Stakes back at The Curragh.
He was up against only four rivals and allowed to dictate slow fractions for the first half of the race but could not contain Push The Boat Out in the closing stages. The penultimate furlong was the turning point with Push The Boat Out 0.36sec (about two lengths) quicker. He prevailed by a neck.
Great Barrier Reef was conceding 5lb and might have been short of his peak after his absence. He had only the fourth best Finishing Speed Percentage, which was at odds with his first three outings when best each time.
Push The Boat Out has also done his bit for the form, subsequently staying on well to be a length and a half fourth in the Middle Park. That suggests Great Barrier Reef would have gone close, at the very least, in that contest.
The role of Great Barrier Reef
The step up to seven furlongs is a slight question mark but I can’t see him being ridden conservatively. On the contrary, it will be in the interests of Darkness Falls for him to get on with it. Expect Great Barrier Reef to set honest early fractions (if Raging Bull does not show up) before winding things up from halfway.
He will surely fare better in the race than his full brother, Mystery Power, who trailed home well beaten in the 2019 renewal won by Pinatubo.
Godolphin are responsible for the other pair.
Jassas is a stablemate of Desert Castle but came up well short when dipping his toe into Group Three company in France. He is officially rated 24lb inferior to Desert Castle and it looks like he’s in here as a pacemaker, for all he might be redundant.
Last, but not least, there is Rock Montreal, trained by Roger Varian.
Rock Montreal, in blue, is edged out at Doncaster
The Blue Point colt, a million guineas purchase from Book 1 this time last year, impressed when justifying cramped odds in a slow-run race on his debut at Yarmouth.
He probably did not beat much, but was No 1 on most of the RaceiQ metrics and hit the line travelling at 39.24mph.
One standout was his low stride cadence and lengthy stride (peaked at 8.25 metres), which points to him staying at least a mile in time.
Rock Montreal was touched off in the Flying Scotsman at Doncaster on his latest start, but he was betrayed by a bit of greenness and probably bumped into a smart rival (the unbeaten Forbidden Fire). The pair pulled a length and a half clear of Nabati, who has since won the Mill Reef Stakes.
The winner effectively got first run, with Rock Montreal’s fast final furlong of 12.06sec (easily best of the whole field) not quite enough to turn the tide.
He’s got bigger days ahead but, in common with Raging Bull, is entered in the Autumn Stakes. I will not be looking beyond him if he turns up there.
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