Jockeys’ Cup: half term report and Skelton's grip

To help us work out what has happened so far in the inaugural David Power Jockeys’ Cup, let’s dig into the figures a bit more from the first half of the competition.

Harry Skelton leads the way, but his share of points has been a lot more evenly distributed than the likes of Nico de Boinville who is the only rider to have won more than ten races.

Skelton’s points have been widespread – 10 winners, nine seconds, 11 thirds, and eight fourths – and it’s this sort of consistency, both in the saddle and from the yard of Dan Skelton, that should make him hard to beat.

When we compare the number of winners that the yard has had in the three months either side of Christmas over the past five seasons, Dan Skelton has had 268 winners in October, November and December, compared to a very similar 262 in January, February and March.

So, despite the more competitive racing after Christmas, the yard’s success hasn’t diminished by any great amount, and it’s worth remembering that Harry rode four winners for the yard at last year’s Cheltenham Festival on Protektorat (Ryanair), Grey Dawning (Turners), Unexpected Party (Grand Annual) and Langer Dan (Coral Cup).

Clearly, this all backs up the claims of current 4-7 chance Skelton, for all the yard doesn’t have standout favourites in any race at Cheltenham – The New Lion, a general 3/1 chance for the Turners Novices’ Hurdle, is their shortest-priced-runner at the time of writing.

De Boinville’s tally of 15 winners is only likely to increase at Cheltenham, with Constitution Hill the strongest in a book of rides that could also include Jonbon (Champion Chase) and Lulamba (Triumph).

That’s a fine book by anyone’s standards, but what we have seen so far on the big ITV days is that it tends to be all or nothing with the Nicky Henderson stable jockey, with six seconds, zero thirds, and two fourths a fairly meagre return in terms of the places.

Henderson had a woeful 2024 Cheltenham Festival due to an illness in the yard, picking up just one top three finish, but the previous year yielded five top three finishes, with de Boinville only on-board Champion Hurdle winner Constitution Hill and Ryanair runner-up Shishkin.

And with 10 points for a win, eight for second, six for third and four for fourth in the Jockeys’ Cup, it’s not all about the winners.

It’s been a case of close but no cigar so far in this season’s Jockeys’ Cup for Harry Cobden, who has the greatest number of second-place finishes (10), three more than his tally of winners. He has backed this up with 10 thirds and six fourths, a solid record which means he is within touching distance of Skelton.

Unfortunately for Cobden, the four ITV racedays of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival provided relatively slim pickings – just three top three finishes (winner Monmiral in the Pertemps, and runners-up Libberty Hunter in the Grand Annual and Ginny’s Destiny in the Turners) - and it’s unlikely to be a vastly different story this year with Paul Nicholls lacking the firepower of bygone days.

Like Cobden, consistency has been key to Sam Twiston-Davies' challenge, with eight wins backed up by eight seconds, five thirds and 11 fourths helping propel the rider to second in the leaderboard until recently.

There may be a relative lack of firepower at the Twiston-Davies yard compared to the big stables, and perhaps it is at the second-tier ITV venues that the jockey may need to strike at if he is to maintain his challenge, but in his favour is the fact that he picks up a lot of outside rides.

Twiston-Davies has ridden seven or more winners for five different yards this season, and, having built up a good relationship with leading Triumph fancy East India Dock, will be battling it out with Harry Cobden for the pick of the Gredley Family runners over the next few months.

Of the rest, Paul Townend will undoubtedly add significantly to his so-far meagre points total (42) at both Cheltenham and the first two days of Aintree – the competition ends on the Friday, remember – but he is surely too far adrift to reel in the likes of Cobden and Skelton.

Sean Bowen and Gavin Sheehan are within sight of the leaders and are clearly riding well this term – Sheehan is on target to ride the most number of winners in his career, with Bowen also on track to beat last season’s tally of 157 winners – but Sheehan may not pick up enough ITV rides; he has had the lowest number (36) of Jockeys’ Cup rides of the top six jockeys on the leaderboard, almost half the number of Skelton (69).

Harry Skelton has had the greatest number of rides in the Jockeys’ Cup so far and is likely to enjoy the same backing in the final two months of the competition as his brother Dan bids for more big-race success as he chases his own title in the Trainers’ Championship.

Currently 36 points clear of nearest challenge Harry Cobden, the general 4-7 about Skelton looks about right, with the rider’s tendency to hit the frame in big races likely to stand him in good stead even if the winners do dry up slightly at some stage.

For those who do fancy chancing their arm, Sean Bowen makes some appeal at William Hill’s carrot-dangling 100-1, given he will be going all-out to win the Jump Jockeys’ Championship.

In truth, though, that may lead him to chase winners in ‘easier’ races away from the ITV cameras, all of which only boosts the chances of the leaderboard-topping Skelton.