Dave Nevison's top tips for Saturday: Thomas Patrick can make name for himself

By Dave Nevison
Fri 30 Nov 2018

It is now the norm for bookies to be offering extra places in TV handicaps on a Saturday afternoon and I will certainly be scouring the market to back Le Musee in the 1.50 at Newbury given he is just about the outsider of the field.

Hopefully, I'll have already tipped up a couple of winners before then.

12.45 Newbury: Santini at 11-8 with Coral

Santini is probably the most eagerly awaited staying novice chaser this winter and his connections have chosen a hot race for him to make his fencing debut.

However, he really looked a terrific prospect last term and I have no intention of trying to get him beat.

Kilbricken Storm beat him over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival but in the view of many experts probably shouldn’t have.

Kilbricken Storm has the benefit of a chasing win already but I am expecting Santini to prove the better of the two this winter. He can take this before contesting the top novice events.

12.55 Bangor: Burrenbridge Hotel

Uno Valoroso did us a favour in this race last year but may struggle this time as he seems to have lost confidence at his fences.

I am very much hoping the same doesn’t apply to Burrenbridge Hotel, who struggled when upped in grade at Aintree last time.

The pace of that race made things tough for him at the fences but things will definitely be easier at Bangor.

In addition, he has slipped in the weights and his rider is well worth his 10lb allowance. The combination could be a good thing in a weak event for a Saturday afternoon.

1.50 Newbury: Le Musee at a general 20-1 each-way (take best possible place terms)

Le Musee ran well behind Speedo Boy last time at Cheltenham - staying on well to be beaten just over seven lengths - but it is the softer ground and application of cheekpieces to go with the usual tongue tie that makes me think he is more than a forlorn hope.

In addition, he is 8lb better off with the winner and he might well have raced on the slowest ground that day.

He will relish the trip and likelihood of a relatively fast pace and I believe can hit the frame here.

3.00 Newbury Thomas Patrick at 7-2 each-way with Paddy Power, who offer five places.

Elegant Escape picked up a 4lb penalty for beating Thomas Patrick at Sandown when both were making their reappearances and I believe the concession will prove decisive.

Tom Lacey has made a serious impact in the past couple of seasons but this represents an opportunity to announce himself at the highest level and his horse looks the one with most potential given that he has only had five steeplechase runs.

The forecast showers will not inconvenience him at all, and he showed when jumping vastly more experienced rivals ragged over course and distance last season that Newbury suits him well.

Lacey had a very well backed winner at Newbury on Friday in Kateson, so clearly has his team in good form.

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