Dave Nevison's top horse racing tips for Saturday

There’s some superb action in store on Saturday with several runners hoping to make some sort of impression on the Cheltenham Festival picture at this late stage. There are also some cracking handicaps to get stuck into.

I have this race between the top two in the weights with Patroclus getting the nod. He beat a useful and reliable performer last time in Guy and really dug in to prevail in the dying strides.

That was only his second chase start and he almost certainly has upside in him, while most of his rivals here are already exposed. James Bowen keeps the ride and it goes almost without saying that Nicky Henderson rarely leaves Kempton without a winner.

I took the view that Flegmatik beat a weakened field last time, with his main market rival falling mid-race. He also drops down in trip having gone up 6lb.

I am going to ignore Danilo D’Airy’s pulled up effort over hurdles last time out, as I fancy the switch back to the smaller obstacles was merely to keep him ticking over for this big prize.

Danilo D’Airy has been on a massively steep upward curve, albeit from a desperately low handicap mark, winning his past three chases in increasingly easy style.

Even at a lowly level, his form has worked out very positively as he has beaten Max Dynamo twice and the third-placed runner last time, who was beaten more than 20 lengths, went on to score on his next start.

He has gone up another 15lb but still has just 10st 2lb in this marathon. Carrying such a light weight will surely improve his chances of lasting home. His trainer has only had two runners in February but one won at 40-1 under Gavin Sheehan, so I am taking the view that Danilo D’Airy will line up in the best of form.

I am scratching my head as to why this horse is 18-1 as he seems to have plenty going for him. The note of caution is that he has not attempted this trip before, but a glance through some of his runs over hurdles suggest that improvement might be coming when he steps up in trip.

He is lightly raced over fences and has won two of his past three (fell at first in between). He beat a next-time-out winner for his first win at Wincanton and Dorking Lad, who he beat last time at Huntingdon, has been a winner earlier in the week.

Our Power has only gone up 2lb for that win and looks underestimated to my eyes. He is clearly a horse going forward, whereas several in this field are really trying to re-establish themselves after disappointments, or look vulnerable.

Charlie Deutsch taking over is hardly going to be marked down as a negative by me and, before racing on Friday, Sam Thomas’ past three runners had all won. The trainer has Our Power entered for two Cheltenham handicaps.

A bumper and novice hurdle winner, Storm Dennis had a wind operation last autumn and on his return has had two runs over what now looks an inadequate trip before stepping up in distance to win a handicap in comfortable fashion.

It looks possible he may now have further improvement in him and Chris Gordon’s runners often excel in Kempton handicaps in particular. The trip is fine and there is set to be plenty of pace in this, so he should be able to sit just off the leaders as last time and hopefully make a challenge late on.