Dave Nevison's Saturday racing tips: Tomily perfectly placed on stands' rail

By no means a solid selection having not shown much for Ian Williams so far, but at the forecast odds she looks worth chancing. Formerly with Gordon Elliott she has tumbled down the weights since moving over here and started last year off 122 at Ayr. Last time out she definitely showed a bit more at Fontwell, having been quietly backed in the market, but the uphill finish on heavy ground probably did for her close home and she faded noticeably.

It is interesting a tongue tie is applied now and a very good conditional claims 3lb that goes a little way towards addressing the fact that she is 6lb out of the handicap. Many of her rivals in this race have been heading up the weights after productive seasons but I am pretty sure a big day is coming for this mare and her mark cannot slip much lower.

Back down to a mark just a pound higher than his latest turf victory and he is guaranteed to be fit for this after an All-weather campaign. His chance, in my view, is greatly increased by the near certainty that there will be a fast pace here, with quite so many regular frontrunners in the line-up.

Victory in a good contest at Haydock last summer saw him hiked up to a mark higher than 100 and he has struggled from that kind of rating since, however he has gradually got closer to winning again as his mark has fallen back down and is now 7lb better off with Nate The Grate on their February Wolverhampton running.

There is a suspicion he might not be quite as gutsy in a finish as some but given the pace he can be guaranteed to travel well into the race and I feel he looks good for a place at a decent price, so check for firms making extra place offers on each-way bets.

He looks to have dropped lucky with the stands' rail draw on his first run for Iain Jardine and if he is fit enough after a three-month break he is certainly well enough handicapped to land this competitive sprint. He appeared to be just running into a bit of form for Ruth Carr last time on his third of just three runs for the yard.

Although 100-1 that day, he finished third beaten less than a length, after making the running as he often likes to. He has been raised 1lb for that run but his mark tumbled through 2020 and he is considerably lower than when contesting in some big prizes not too long ago, and he last won a handicap off a rating 9lb higher.

I'm hoping this one can round off a good day in handicaps for Iain Jardine and give weight all round in this 0-60. His rating is 2lb higher than the official ceiling of this handicap, but he is actually running off a mark only 1lb higher than his course and distance win in the autumn and faces a much easier task here than he has faced recently.

He definitely showed signs that he was coming back to form with an unlucky-in-running sixth at Newcastle last week. Only one rival in this race arrives here in any sort of form, but Ayr Poet has risen rapidly up the weights over slightly longer trips and looked as though the handicapper had caught up last time.