Resident tipping guru Dave Nevison discloses his three best bets on an absorbing card at Ayr.
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1.30 Ayr: LIARI
Paul Nicholls might well have saved this five-year-old for a spring campaign after having skipped Cheltenham and Aintree.
He rattled off a hat-trick last season and looked at his best when winning a Listed juvenile event on decent ground at Musselburgh in February and should be fresh enough to win this decent prize.
Liari hasn’t encountered similar conditions over the minimum trip since that run and could go well off top weight now he has come down the weights a little.
3.15 Ayr: RISKINTHEGROUND
The race in which Riskintheground competed last time at Newbury might well turn out to be a key indicator for decent handicap chases in late spring-early summer.
Dan Skelton’s runner is definitely a spring horse and looks to have spent the winter getting handicapped for this time of the year.
Several runners in that Newbury race could have been well handicapped, not least the winner, Bhaloo, who was well backed – despite pulling up on his previous three starts.
That Riskintheground was staying on well in fifth to be beaten just five and a half lengths and has been dropped 1lb indicates he might now be very well treated.
He is on exactly the same mark as his latest win back in September and, over his ideal trip and ground, looks set to come good very soon.
4.25 Ayr: FLORIDA DREAMS
Florida Dreams has often shaped as though this two-and-a-half-mile trip would prove ideal for him, but his most disappointing run came over this distance at Aintree on Boxing Day.
To be fair, his fifth place in that race looks better now than it did at the time with a couple of subsequent winners and a festival runner up in front of him.
He has since done OK over two miles, looking once again as though a step up will help.
has left the headgear off over this distance, which looks a good move.
Florida Dreams is 2lb lower than his latest win which was just four starts ago. This looks as though it could well have been targeted for him.