They thought it was all over, but it isn’t now.
Dan Skelton had a first trainers’ championship in his grasp heading into Aintree’s
meeting, with Betfair customers even backing him at the minimum price of 1.01 to take the crown.
He led defending champion Willie Mullins by £1,365,284 last Thursday morning, but the landscape has changed.
Mullins has come roaring back courtesy of his eight winners at the Grand National meeting (five in Grade One company) and his incredible 1-2-3-5-7 in the big race itself. In three days, he doubled the prize-money tally he had achieved in the previous 11 months.
By contrast, none of Skelton’s big guns could hit the jackpot in Liverpool, with Grey Dawning, Protektorat and L’Eau Du Sud all running creditably, but coming up short. He did strike with She’s A Saint but Live Conti, Jet Plane all found one too good.
Consequently, Skelton’s massive lead has dwindled to £122,026 with the finish line looming on Saturday fortnight. The runaway leader suddenly needs to find fresh momentum, with Mullins still having work to do to get upsides but finishing with a rattle.
Skelton is out to 7-2 to win his first trainers' title, with Mullins 1-4 to regain his crown.
The former could extend his lead on Friday, when he has six runners on the card at Ayr. Mullins has none.
But it's Saturday’s fixture at Ayr, when £501,000 is up for grabs, that will be pivotal.
Here’s a closer look at their prospects.
1.10 Scotty Brand Handicap Chase
Total prize money: £50,000. First prize: £28,135.
SKELTON ENTRIES: Asta La Plasta, Etalon, Harper’s Brook,
MULLINS ENTRIES: Tullyhill, Western Diego.
Grand Annual runner-up Unexpected Party heads Skelton’s possible runners and must go well, off a 5lb higher mark, if fully recovered from his exertions at Cheltenham.
Etalon has been disappointing this term but has slipped to a handy mark, while it would not be a bad time for the mercurial Harper’s Brook to put his best foot forward. Asta La Plasta, whousually finishes in the money, has been declared to run on Friday. Could he run twice in 24 hours?
Mullins has two unexposed novices in Tullyhill and Western Diego, although the former fluffed his lines badly at Thurles last time, while the handicapper does not appear to have done the latter any favours.
Unexpected Party has leading claims (focusonracing.com)
1.43 CPMS Novices' Champion Handicap Chase
Prize money: £50,000. First prize: £25,720.
SKELTON: Theformismighty, Major Fortune, Coco Madememoile.
MULLINS: Olympic Man, Loughglynn, Lombron Klarc Kent, Captain Cody.
All bar one of Mullins’ five entries are also engaged in the Scottish National, so it will be interesting to see how he juggles his team.
The exception is Lombron, although he’s unproven over the 3m trip. Loughglynn and Olympic Man would look good fits for race, especially the former, who has a progressive profile and looks on a handy mark for his handicap bow.
Skelton’s trio are headed by Coco Madememoile, a mare who has had a light campaign and went close at Sandown last time. She looks to have been trained with one eye on this meeting, having finished runner-up in the mares’ handicap hurdle 12 months ago. Theformismighty is also entered in the Scottish National.
Watch how Mullins-trained runners dominated in the County Hurdle
2.15 Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle
Prize money: £100,000. First prize: £56,270.
SKELTON: Valgrande.
MULLINS: Absurde, Batman Girac, Bunting, Ethical Diamond, Karafon, Kargese, Lot Of Joy.
The odds are stacked on Mullins’ favour here as his squad of six include the 1-3-4 in the County Hurdle in the shape of Kargese, Absurde and Ethical Diamond. They are all obvious contenders, as the ante-post betting suggests. In addition, Mullins also has Bunting, who went off favourite for the Coral Cup but was much too free up in trip.
Skelton has one dart to throw at the board in Valgrand, but he beat only one home in the County Hurdle and is up against it.
His former boss, Paul Nicholls, could do him a favour via the well-fancied Kabral Du Mathan, while such as Kihavah and Under Control will also be arriving under the radar. Skelton will be cheering for them all.
Skelton, left, leads Mullins in the battle for the trainers' title but his big lead has been eroded
2.55 UK Greentech Glasgow Seafield Trophy Mares' Handicap Hurdle
Prize money: £45,000. First prize: £56,270
SKELTON: Nurse Susan, Pawapuri.
MULLINS: Armed And Fabulous, Paggane.
This race a wide-open look, with Skelton likely to rely on Pawapuri. He has had a light campaign and is entitled to improve for his latest run at Chepstow.
Nurse Susan ran better than the bare form suggests on her belated return at the Cheltenham Festival but has been declared to run in first-time cheekpieces on Friday.
Neither of the Mullins pair are obvious on paper and could end up being over-bet. Armed And Fabulous has clearly not been easy to train, while Paggane looks badly handicapped reverting to hurdles.
It would not be a surprise if this race is dominated by other trainers.
Mullins savours landing last year's Scottish national with Macdermott
3.35 Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
Prize money: £200,000. First prize: £112,540
SKELTON: Sail Away, Snipe, Theformismighty.
MULLINS: Captain Cody, Chosen Witness, High Class Hero, Judicieuse Allen, Klarc Kent, Loughglynn, Macdermott, O’Moore Park, Olympic Man, Spanish Harlem.
Mullins had four of the first six home last year and, if he can repeat the trick, then he might just hit the front in the title race.
Macdermott will be back to defend his crown, while Klarc Kent (fourth) and Spanish Harlem (sixth) also seem likely to return. If those three were not enough, Mullins has also lobbed eight novices into the picture and most have similar profiles in that they are unexposed, especially moving up in trip. There has been a big market move for Chosen Witness, with High Class Hero and O’Moore Park also prominent in the betting.
None of the Skelton trio are quoted shorter than 50-1, although Snipe, quoted at 66-1, could well be underestimated. He has often shaped as if a thorough test will suit and, habitually held up, you can see him being ridden to pick up some pieces. His trainer will be hoping it is a very big piece.
4.10 Stagecoach We've Got You Novices' Handicap Hurdle
Prize money: £20,000. First prize: £10,562.
SKELTON: Ace Of Spades, Land Genie
MULLINS: Armed And Fabulous, C’est Ta Chance, Chart Topper, FisherynLane, Inn At The Park, Jump Alle.
The final three races on the card are worth less money, but every penny counts.
Mullins never used to entertain having runners at Ayr – now he’s got six to shuffle in this novices’ handicap hurdle. Jump Allen, who won on his handicap bow at Naas last time, and Chart Topper, runner-up in a good race at Kelso last time, head his pack. They are also entered in the penultimate race on the card.
Ace Of Spades also ran well at Kelso and is a leading form player for Skelton, although he has been declared to run on Friday. Skelton could just do with a few more aces up his sleeve.
4.45 Tennent's Lager Novices' Hurdle
Prize money: £20,000. First prize: £10,406
SKELTON: Pony Soprano.
MULLINS: Chart Topper, Jump Allen, Kalix Delabarriere, Kiss Will.
Chart Topper and Jump Allen have the option of running in this, too, and would be contenders, although Kalix Delabarriere, winner of a 20-runner maiden hurdle at Naas last time, could be the Mullins No 1 here.
Skelton will be hoping Pony Soprano can refind his ruthless side, as his past two efforts have been disappointing. Perhaps a two-month break and better ground will have him once more firing on all cylinders.
5.20 Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Open National Hunt Flat Race
Prize money: £16,500. First prize: £8,986
SKELTON: --
MULLINS: Doctor Du Mesnil, Dysart Dolomite, Eclipse Chaser.
Skelton has no runners and if the finale, but Mullins has another trio to mull over.
They include two newcomers in Dysart Dolomite, a half-brother to the classy Dysart Dynamo, and the French bred Doctor Du Mesnil, a€55,000 purchase.
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