Dave Nevison: four fancies for Champions Day including a 66/1 chance
By Dave Nevison
Last Updated: Fri 18 Oct 2024
Betting expert Dave has a 66/1 selection in the Sprint and will be splitting his stakes in the Balmoral. Watch how his selections fare on Racing TV.
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1.55 Ascot: Vafortino
This 66/1 chance has a habit of running well at Ascot and did me a favour when winning the Victoria Cup in May 2022.
He has only raced once over 6f since he joined Kevin Philippart De Foy but ran very well to finish fifth in this season’s Wokingham at the Royal meeting.
That run came on fast ground and he has always been better served by softer ground so with a favoured high draw and Christophe Soumillon booked he might well get himself into a place in a race where it is difficult to split the better fancied runners.
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2.35 Ascot: Wingspan
Aidan O’Brien runs three in this and Wingspan may be the best of them.
A major pointer to her chances for me is that she has winning form on heavy ground this season, having scored on her debut at Leopardstown.
She has since continued on an upward curve and her dam, Hydrangea, won this prize when stepped up to this distance on soft ground for the first time. Wingspan could well be overpriced to follow in her hoofprints.
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4.35 Ascot: Elnajm & Carrytheone
I’m going with two against the field in this mile cavalry charge that closes a terrific card at Ascot.
Elnajm has had his sights lowered having been entered in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and this looks an opportunity for him to get back to winning ways.
He returned this season with two wins, including one over this course and distance, and it looked as though the sky was the limit for him.
He has been a beaten favourite on his past two starts but there have been mitigating circumstances. He didn’t get the best of runs in a similar big field at York and then didn’t adapt to the slower pace, and the fast ground, in a Listed race at Sandown last time.
He might well have his ideal scenario back in a big field and with a fast pace guaranteed. William Haggas applying cheekpieces for the first time looks a positive move and Elnajm may enjoy the surface better than fast summer ground.
Christophe Soumillon is the latest world class jockey to be tasked with getting a big handicap win out of Carrytheone, who is certainly capable of landing a race such as this when things eventually fall right for him.
Jamie Spencer was on board Michael Bell’s gelding last time, when he started particularly slowly. He couldn’t get going fast enough to overhaul the leaders but has a furlong extra here.
Carrytheone has been placed in a Group Two on heavy ground so conditions will be no problem. He he always seems to do enough to get into a paying place so I am happy to keep rolling with him for at least one more go.
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