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Data Detective: three tips for Newmarket on Thursday

By Andy Stephens

Last Updated: Wed 23 Sep 2026

Andy Stephens, armed with the RaceiQ data, has a trio to consider on day one of the Cambridgeshire meeting.

Enjoy our RaceiQ pace maps

TAKE A LOOK AT THE RACEIQ PACE MAPS AND DRAW ADVANTAGE IN OUR RACECARDS

✅ 1.50 NEWMARKET: LADY ROXBY

RaceiQ Nap Of The Day

11/2

Highest Speed: 42.82mph

Finishing Speed Percentage at Yarmouth: 100.50% (best)

Trainer’s overall Actual versus Expected: 1.24

Lady Roxby was beaten a neck in this £60,000 fillies’ handicap last year and, 2lb lower in the ratings, can go one better.

She hinted her turn was close when chasing home all-the-way winner Space Bear in a fast-run race at Yarmouth last time.

Crucially, she was 0.47sec slower than the winner through the first furlong and, despite gradually eroding that deficit, ended up 0.15seconds adrift.

✅ 3.00 NEWMARKET: MEZZO FORTE

9/2

Highest Speed: 40.91mph

Latest 0-20mph: 2.65sec

Trainer’s Actual versus Expected at Newmarket: 1.29

Mezzo Forte impressed when making all at York last time, clocking fast sectionals in the first two furlongs and and the last two furlongs.

He won easing down but still won in a time 0.43sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par. Expect Ryan Moore to adopt a similar approach.

The data tells us that horses who lead over 7f have the best Actual versus Expected, beating 62 per cent of their rivals, whereas those who race in rear beat only 40 per cent.

How the Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes might look after a couple of furlongs

✅ 3.35 NEWMARKET: GREGORY

4/5

Time at York: 1.94sec quicker than Par

Final furlong at York: 12.19sec (best)

Jockey’s Actual versus Expected at Newmarket: 1.64

Gregory returned from 476 days off with a game success at York in June, winning in a time almost two seconds quicker than the RaceiQ Par.

They went slow early on that day but he then reeled off five successive fast furlongs and his very fast final furlong of 12.19 seconds sealed matters. The pair who chased him home have franked the form.

James Doyle’s Actual versus Expected on the Rowley Mile course is an excellent 1.64.

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