Crunching The Numbers: ten data eye-catchers in recent days

Technology has helped racing improve many things over the years but going descriptions remain a bewilderingly unscientific process.

The first two days of the Boodles Chester Festival officially took place on “good” ground, while on the final day the surface was apparently good, good to soft in places.

However, there were some rapid times and the action, which briefly came to a halt on day two when several jockeys reported their mounts to have slipped, almost certainly unfolded on much quicker terrain.

Dazzling times, then, were not quite so illuminating as they seemed, while the fast ground horses – and not those who enjoyed some give underfoot – were in their element.

We will focus on the various Classic trials of the past week when assessing what may occur at Epsom a bit closer to the time.

Here are ten to keep a close an eye on over the weeks ahead who did not run in pattern company. 

Races around the bend at Leopardstown are often won by horses who race prominently and that was a feature of the first three races on the card, over 7f or further, as the winners all sat second after the first furlong.

It was a very different story in the ten-furlong handicap later on the card as Truth Be Told swept from last to first with a stunning turn of foot on what was his first start for the yard of Michael Grassick.

The Too Darn Hot gelding was still last of the 12 runners half a mile from home but a 12.58sec seventh furlong (second best) and 12.27sec (also second best) eighth furlong enabled him to pass three rivals.

There was still plenty to do but his 11.83sec penultimate furlong – he was the only runner to dip under 12sec for a furlong at any stage - and 12.37sec final furlong (easily quickest) saw him zoom to the head of affairs. He was a full 1sec quicker than anything else over the final three furlongs, and that can be upgraded, too, as this was not a fast-run race which fell in his lap. On the contrary, the Time Index was 4.8, when the meeting average was 5.2, and 1.03sec slower than Par.

Truth be Told is now two from two when racing beyond a mile and hold-up tactics have unlocked hidden potential. He took this off a rating of 80 and will be mid 80s or higher next time, but that need not stop him going in again. His winning time was less than 1sec slower than the Derby Trial earlier in the afternoon. 

RaceiQ logged three of the first five furlongs of this mile handicap as “slow” and the first three from early on, headed by Radiant Beauty, very much had the run of things. 

By contrast, Alobayyah sat last for those initial five furlongs, with Billy Loughnane’s bobbing head, a clear indicator she wanted to go a bit quicker. 

The lightly raced four-year-old, having only her fourth start and first in handicap company, had no chance of winning the way things unfolded but she kept on in taking style to grab third near the finish. The daughter of Ghaiyyath was fastest through each of the final four furlongs and should be winning soon.

The form of this 12f handicap looks worth keeping an eye on as RaceiQ had the win time as being 3.16sec quicker than their Par, with the Time Index score being 8.9 when the meeting average was 7.1. 

Wine Dark Sea and Bulletin, the first pair home, were always handily placed, whereas Opportunity and Siempre Arturo tried pouncing from off the gallop. 

Between them, they were fastest in each of the final two furlongs, but they were swimming against the tide. 

Opportunity was having his first run for 11 months and it’s worth keeping in mind he got the better of Rahiebb, the subsequent St Leger runner-up, in a novice event at Haydock last year, admittedly when in receipt of 6lb. 

Siempre Arturo is more exposed and went off 100-1, but he had won in good style at Windsor when last seen on turf and this was no fluke.

Bah, humbug. I’m not a fan of Secrete Santas if truth be told – you usually get something inappropriate or second hand – but I’ll make an exception of the equine version owned by Julie Wood and trained by Richard Hannon. 

Sean Levey had the Lucky Vega colt buried away in mid-division at halfway in this 19-runners affair but got a great response when asking his partner to get involved. He was second fastest through furlongs four and five, and then quickest of all in the final furlong. 

He completed the final two furlongs bang on 24sec, with only four others in the field dipping under 25sec. The Time Index of 8.7 (meeting average: 6.5) was glowing, with the contest being 2.03sec quicker than Par. 

Moreover, this was his first start for 11 months, so there could be plenty more to come.

Hello Spaceboy must also go in the Tracker as he might just have bumped into one here, going down by a neck after never being far away and pulling clear of the rest. He had also run well in defeat at Kempton a month earlier and his turn looks close. 

I must declare an interest here as Maxi King was the RaceiQ nap on Friday. It looked a case of what might have been for the 25-1 chance, with Timeform among those suggesting that he “seemed unlucky not to win”. 

The six-year-old ran wide early and late in the race under his 7lb claimer, plus was at a positional disadvantage as the pair he split at the finish, A Piece Of Heaven and Duraji, were never far away in a renewal run at no more than an average gallop.  

Maxi King clocked 36.13sec for the final three furlongs, whereas the winner managed 36.47sec and front-running third 37.09sec. 

The one niggle in following him going forwards is that he was making his seasonal reappearance here and has always gone well fresh. That said, he did win twice in the space of about three weeks at the start of 2024 and his connections will have plenty of options, as he seems versatile regards trip and ground.

The opening 5f handicap on day two of the Boodles Festival was a messy/rough affair with several runners being short of room. 

Admirable course specialist Roman Dragon found a way to again get the job done but Dubai Bling, the runner-up, was unlucky not to upstage him. 

He was slowest of the ten runners to reach 20mph and consequently only seventh after the first furlong. This was compounded by him not getting the gaps when he needed them, with his final furlong flourish of 11.35sec, when switched wide, being too little, too late. 

Dubai Bling should be able to go one better soon granted the rub of the green. 

The Andrew Balding-trained three-year-old was having only his fourth run, and first on turf in 11 months, and his fate was sealed early on as he took 3sec to reach 20mph, the slowest of all dozen runners. 

He moved strongly in among runners, but they didn’t go a mad gallop (the Time Index was 7.1 when the meeting average was 8.1) and the writing was on the wall for him early in the straight. 

However, there was plenty to like about the way he saw things out from an unpromising position, and he was no worse than third fastest through each of the final three furlongs. Only the winner, Mcmurray, finished stronger, and Factual seems sure to build on this.

Amo Racing had three runners at the Chester meeting and must have been left cursing. Maxi King was runner-up in the Chester Cup on day three, Monarch’s Gold was beaten a neck on day two; and before that pair Do Bronxs had been a big eye-catcher in the 6f handicap on day one. 

The grey son of Oasis Dream played a part in his own downfall, being slow away from an already horrible outside draw, and he still had only one behind him two furlongs from home. 

He signed off with two sub-12-second furlongs, being third fastest through the penultimate furlong and then fastest of all in the final furlong. He ended up being beaten just a length and a half. 

This was his first run for 236 days, having been gelded since the end of last term, and a mark in the high 80s is clearly not beyond him. He’s a long strider, hitting a maximum of 8.08 metres here, and a more galloping track may also see him to better advantage.