City Of Troy: key questions ahead of the Coral-Eclipse

Queries about whether City Of Troy has trained on seem like a long time ago now after the Justify colt unequivocally got back on track after his Qipco 2000 Guineas blow-out with a a high-class Betfred Derby triumph on 10 days ago.

While the Irish Derby is the more traditional next port of call for an Aidan O'Brien-trained Derby winner, it’s exciting to learn that City Of Troy will drop back down in distance now at Sandown Park and in what promises to be the potential highlight of the season so far. 

With some weeks remaining ahead of the early summer feature, here are some points to ponder before the big event on Saturday 6 July.

The trip is the obvious starting point, especially since City Of Troy saw out a Betfred Derby distance that was a decent test at a mile and a half by Epsom standards - and that was after racing keenly in the early stages too.

He clearly sees out an extended trip well and he may be a more mature model now – hinted at by O’Brien speaking after Epsom glory – given he was dropped in on his latest start and off more modest fractions on an uphill climb. On all of his prior starts he had popped out quickly from the stalls and established a strong early speed that he essentially maintained better than the rest.

That relentlessness – one of City Of Troy’s hallmark characteristics – was evidenced again at the finish at Epsom and for the first time as a three-year-old, underscored by from how far back he made his winning challenge and by his strength at the finish. Remarkably, his jockey couldn’t pull him up after the line.

That unerring resolution could be honed to decisive effect back down in trip, especially if reverting again to forward tactics in what is likely to be a small field and against rivals that will not boast his form credentials over extended distances. Is it unreasonable to suggest that he may not see another rival in the opening clash of the generations? 

The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby would have looked something of a penalty kick, especially given how strongly City Of Troy finished at Epsom. The prevailing wisdom that the offers a stiffer test at a mile and half isn’t illustrated by the median times of both Classics since 2010, though (on good ground or faster, it’s 2m 33.45s at Epsom and 2m 33.63s at the Curragh) while the Irish Classic has proven a Ballydoyle benefit in recent times with 19 horses achieving the Derby double - most recently last year when stablemate achieved the feat. 

The Coral-Eclipse is more of a gamble, then, but this is the right call with a view to making City Of Troy the most compelling stallion possible and this first try at a mile and quarter also serves as a potential sighter to likely targets later in the season. While the Travers Stakes at Saratoga has been mentioned several times by connections as a potential port of call, O'Brien recently indicated that the more conventional Irish Champion Stakes route is the latest preference ahead of a in November. Top-level success in the famous dirt race would make the Justify colt a truly outstanding stallion prospect on both sides of the Atlantic.

The three-year-olds are in receipt of weight from their elders in this opening clash of the season and, while the trends are not heavily skewed towards the younger brigade, it’s still true to say that the Classic generation has held sway with 41 per cent of the winners from 31 per cent of the total runners in the last 27 renewals. 

O’Brien has a good if unspectacular record in the race overall in that time, but it’s better still when just focusing on his three-year-olds and even stronger when those runners have been the clear pick for a stable that often runs several contenders in flagship British races. First-choice Ballydoyle runners in this since 1997 that are aged three have an excellent record (38 per cent, +£14.26, 1.23 A/E).

While Ballydoyle wouldn’t be ducking opposition with their star colt and one in receipt of weight to boot, we want to see the Derby winner challenged and it's fair to say that the opposition looks a bit more compelling than was the case a few weeks ago.

Don't expect a big field, though, given the Coral-Eclipse has seen four-runner fields in two of the last three years and an average field size of 6.6 runners in the last decade. With a short-priced City Of Troy turning up this time, we could well be looking under that latest 10-year average once again.

looks likely to head for the race but the Camelot colt has over eight lengths to find just on their Epsom form alone while has been ruled out, but White Birch - while a doubt - would be an important inclusion here as a high-class older horse who arrives here off the back of Group One victory and an unblemished campaign so far. The subsequent feats of the horses he's beaten this term wouldn't stand the closest scrutiny, but he has won by at least three lengths on each of his last two starts and Auguste Rodin hasn't done too badly since, even if that horse is a different model on genuinely quick ground and the Tattersalls Gold Cup was run on good to soft going. It would be great if the Ulysses colt turned up here although the vibes indicate it's more unlikely than not at the moment.

The principal opponent here could be Ghostwriter, and trainer recently. The Invincible Spirit colt is lightly raced and may have been waiting for these conditions all along.