Chris Dixon's Notes And Angles: Time right for Dancinginthewoods

The Craven meeting at Newmarket is always informative and there was plenty to take out of the three days there last week.

Native Trail was the headline grabber, and with good reason after his power-packed display in the Craven. That performance left me thinking an ante-post position on his stablemate Coroebus isn’t quite so good as I’d hoped but at least he seemed to please his trainer in a pre-racing workout.

I’ve largely kept away from the Craven meeting for the list of Tracker horses below but have put in one who ran on Wednesday and holds an entry at Leicester tomorrow while there’s also a race to follow plus a few others who shaped nicely and can hopefully pay their way short term.

A strike rate of just 1/27 doesn’t read great for Distinction but I don’t think he’s a horse that’s does a huge amount wrong and looks ready to double his career tally very soon. A close second at Nottingham at the start of the month, his connections opted to turn him out quickly at Pontefract last week in a bid to take advantage of a mark that was sure to go up a couple of pounds.

And granted a bit more luck in running he might have gone one better than Nottingham but after travelling well (watch above) he was caught in traffic on the inside up the straight and could never fully open up. In what appeals as a solid race for the grade he was value for at least going close and though his new 2lb higher mark has now kicked in he still looks fairly treated for when things drop right.

Seven furlongs or a mile on easy ground off a decent pace will probably be his optimum test and I think he’d be of more interest at a track with a longer straight.

Pontefract staged one of the longest races in the Flat calendar last week and the 2m5 ½f trip proved a little too far for Niblawi, but the way he went through the race suggests he’s capable of winning soon.

Always travelling sweetly, he carried Jason Watson to the front going easily with three furlongs to run but weakened up the demanding Pontefract hill, ultimately failing for stamina under such an extreme test. A winner over hurdles on his previous start, he’s clearly in very good form at the moment and having dropped 2ls to a mark of 64 for this run, he looks well-handicapped when returning to a slightly shorter trip.

Dancinginthewoods proved to be consistent last season and his reappearance run at Newmarket last week suggests there may be a bit more to come.

A close fourth in a competitive handicap, he met some trouble at a crucial stage and was forced to switch to the outer to make his challenge and may have won with a shade more luck (acknowledging there were others in the race for whom things didn’t play out ideally). At his best coming from off a strong pace with an uphill finish, the Newmarket tracks seem to suit him well, as does Leicester where he was a winner last year and he holds an engagement there on Saturday afternoon.

Rookie trainer Gemma Tutty is waiting on her first winner since taking over the license from her mother but her horses have made a solid start to the season and I doubt she’ll have to wait much longer for that opening success.

One horse who should hit the target at least once for the yard this year is Mostly Cloudy, who made a very encouraging seasonal debut at Nottingham on Saturday. Dropped in early on a night when racing close to the pace generally looked an advantage, he made more of an impact that anything else that came from a long way back in this race and he finished with more in the tank – very much catching the eye.

This was a decent race for the grade with a mix on in-form recent winners and handicap debutants making up the majority of the field and there’ll be much weaker contests for Mostly Cloudy to contest so I’d be surprised if he isn’t found a winning opportunity soon.

The race won by Educator at Newmarket last week is almost always a very competitive handicap that works out well – indeed the past three winners all progressed to win in Group company later in the season – and the race once again looks a red-hot piece of form that should work out.

The winner showed improved form for a step up in trip and has a smart pedigree and will remain well-treated following his 5lb rise – especially as a further step up in distance should unlock more improvement. Runner-up High Fibre has a 4lb higher mark to contend with but travelled best through race and has more to come off what still looks a nice rating.

The performance put up by Israr in third would probably have been enough to win most races off his mark so having been left unchanged for this he looks one to pay close attention to next time, especially as this was only his third career start and he looked as though he may be sharper for the run. A mile and a half will suit him well. The rest of the field also have potential and can find less competitive races than this one to take advantage of – especially when the opportunity to race against their elders comes along.