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Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup: ten talking points and 12-1 tip

Last Updated: Tue 6 Jan 2026

The open nature of this year’s Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup was reflected by 33 entries being revealed for chasing’s blue riband on Tuesday afternoon.

That compares to 19 this time last year and suggests we could be in for a bumper field for the £625,000 showpiece on March 13.

Twenty-three of those engaged are Irish-trained, while Britain has nine potential candidates. Meanwhile, Gold Tweet could represent France.

No British-trained horse has won the race since Native River won an attritional edition is 2018, and the cupboard was almost bare last year when the home team did not have a challenger shorter than 28-1, and Ireland had the first four home.

But the Brits are back, with The Jukebox Man, Jango Baie, Grey Dawning and Haiti Couleurs all prominent in the ante-post market.

There is plenty more water to flow under the bridge over the next two months, but here are ten early talking points.

Watch how Inothewayurthinkin beat galopin Des Champs inlast year's Gold Cup

1 Has Inothewayurthinkin got what it takes to retain his crown?

The champ has begun the campaign with lacklustre runs in the John Durkan Memorial Chase (beaten 52 lengths) and Savills Chase (beaten 41 lengths) and Gavin Cromwell muddied the waters further on Tuesday by saying that his stable star is not certain to line up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Leopardstown on January 31.

The common belief is that Inothewayurthinkin will again be firing on all cylinders come March, reflected by the fact that he is no bigger to 6-1 to win again. But I wonder whether his stunning effort in last year’s contest, having been supplemented by owner JP McManus, has left an indelible stain.

He was the youngest horse in the line-up, at the age of 7, and perhaps glimpsed the dark side after stretching every sinew to deny Galopin Des Champs his hat-trick. The handicapper reckons he suddenly found 16lb of improvement, and he stopped the clock 25 seconds quicker than the winner 12 months earlier, albeit the ground was dryer.

His connections resisted running him in the Grand National afterwards, even though he would have been thrown in at the weights, and they also skipped the Punchestown Gold Cup, when only four runners showed up. That tells us he did not exactly come out of the race bouncing.

His dull reappearance effort in the John Durkan over an inadequate trip at Punchestown in November was not overly surprising but his subsequent stinker in the Savills over Christmas, when trailing home last of the nine finishers, was more perturbing.

He barely went a yard and jumped indifferently, having again been friendless in the betting, even though Cromwell had been upbeat in the build-up. Fact To File, in the same ownership and the original ante-post favourite for the race, was instead pointed to the King George VI Chase at Kempton, which could have been interpreted as an endorsement for Inothewayurthinkin. Perhaps that is overthinking it.

Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown? There have been only three back-to-back Gold Cup winners in the past half century, while in the last 20 years seven winners have not even returned to defend their title, for a variety of reasons.

“He was obviously very disappointing at Christmas and hopefully we can get him back on track,” Cromwell said on Tuesday. “He’s come out of the race OK and we’ll just give him a chance now to freshen up. He could go to the Irish Gold Cup, but that will all depend on what happens over the next three weeks. It wouldn’t be ideal to go into the Gold Cup without another run, but we will have to deal with whatever comes along the way.”

2 How is the JP McManus B Team shaping up?

The leading owner has just two others engaged in I Am Maximus (33-1) and Spillane’s Tower (100-1).

I Am Maximus has almost certainly booked his place after splitting Affordale Fury and Galopin Des Champs in the Savills, although whether his suspect jumping will stand up to the test is another matter (see question 9). He was fourth in the Brown Advisory in 2023 but has missed Cheltenham to run in the National for the past two years, winning at Aintree in 2024 and being second last year.

Spillane’s Tower has hit bumps in the road after his encouraging start to chasing, running over hurdles in his first two starts this term. He’s never run at Cheltenham, and by all accounts did not travel well when coming to Britain for last season’s King George.

McManus has not entered Fact To File, Jagwar or Iroko. The first two named are among his five entries in the Ryanair Chase (the others he has in that race are Jonbon,Majborough and Spillane’s Tower).

Fact To File was a dazzling winner of the Ryanair last term and that is clearly his most likely destination, although it was surprising that his connections did not stump up the initial £780 Gold Cup entry fee, if only to see what occurs in the Irish Gold Cup before the first scratching stage on February 3.

Of course, McManus could still utilise the supplementary stage if he needs to, as he did with Inothewayurthinkin last year. It costs £25,000 to supplement a horse for the Gold Cup on March 7, compared to £3,120 for ticking all the boxes along the way.

3 Is Galopin Du Champs capable of regaining his title and becoming a rare three-time winner?

What is like being the owner of Galopin Des Champs?

The heart says yes, but the head says no. History tells us that it is highly unlikely, with Kauto Star (2007 and 2009) being the only horse to ever regain the Gold Cup crown. And, of course, that goliath was out of the ordinary, being rated 190 at his peak.

See More Business, Denman, Long Run, Bobs Worth, Native River and Al Boum Photo have all tried, and failed, to regain their crowns this century. In addition, you must travel back to 1998 to find the last ten-year-old to take the spoils.

Galopin Des Champs looked to have everything in his favour when seeking a hat-trick of wins last year but the 8-13 favourite did not look comfortable from an early stage and Inothewayurthinkin surged away from him in the closing stages.

The black beauty put that behind him when romping away with a weak edition of the Punchestown Gold Cup the following month, but this season has begun with his absence in the John Durkan, because of a setback, and a below-par third in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown, a track where he has previously been invincible.

Willie Mullins and Patrick Mullins had played down his chances beforehand, suggesting he may need the run. The former also added hinted at issues behind the scenes when adding “I’m also hoping he comes back sound”.

It was surprising, then, that Paul Townend was quite so vigorous in the closing stages, using his pro-cush five times after the final fence as he vainly tried to fend off a rival, Affordale Fury, who went into the race rated 19lb inferior. Townend’s actions were contrary to the cautious words beforehand, and slightly puzzling if Galopin Des Champs was thought to be short of his peak.

All good things must come to an end. Galopin Des Champs has run in 20 Grade One races over the past five years and, assuming he attempts to win a fourth successive Irish Gold Cup next month, he will have had 26 races when he lines up at Cheltenham for his sixth successive Festival. Only Kauto Star (30 runs) has won the Gold Cup this century with more previous appearances to his name.

Inevitably, the miles on the clock and battle scars are totting up. He might just be at a crossroads in his tremendous career and, in common with Inothewayurthinkin, the Irish Gold Cup now takes on extra significance for him. The bookmakers make him a general 6-1.

4 How strong is the rest of the Mullins battalion?

Mullins with Nick Rockett, left, and Galopin Des Champs (Inpho Photography)

The champion trainer has twice had four runners (2018 and 2019) and my hunch is that he will again adopt a safety in numbers approach, having gone solo with Galopin Des Champs last year. That was the first time he’s had only one runner since 2017.

In addition to Galopin Des Champs (official rating 175), he has also entered Gaelic Warrior(172), Nick Rockett(169), I Am Maximus (168), Grangeclare West (164), Impaire Et Passe (158), Lecky Watson (158), Champ Kiely (157) and Spindleberry (150). They range between 10-1 and 66-1 in the betting.

Spindleberry seems more likely to head to the Mares’ Chase but the rest must all be considered possibles. And don’t forget that Fact To File (171), only entered in the Ryanair Chase as things stand, could be supplemented, if required.

Gold Cup winners with a rating in the 150s are rare – Lord Winderemere (152) is the only one this century – but Mullins has five potential contenders rated 164 or higher, and they all look blessed with the requisite stamina.

Gaelic Warrior (10-1) is his obvious second ace, but I’d expect him to throw plenty of darts at the board.

5 Is the Savills Chase winner, Affordale Fury, being underestimated?

Affordale Fury won the Savills Chase despite some erratic jumping

I don’t think so. He is a general 16-1, but it could be that he has had his day in the sun.

On the plus side, he’s lightly raced and his trainer, Noel Meade, is no stranger to having horses run well in the race. Harbour Pilot was placed twice in editions won by Best Mate, while Road To Riches was a close third to Coneygree a decade ago.

Affordale Fury got the run of the race from the front at Leopardstown and, having his fourth run of the campaign, was almost certainly at a fitness advantage up against rivals using the race more as a building block.

The most disconcerting feature of his performance was the way he jumped violently right throughout, something he surely will not get away with at Cheltenham, for all he was a gallant second in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle in 2023.

It’s not something he has done before, so why did he do it last time?

Maybe something was troubling him on a one-off basis, or maybe it goes deeper than that for a horse who has clearly had issues, running only twice in the 2023-24 season, and just once last term after 14 months off. Incidentally, his five career wins have all been achieved between the months of October and December.

Overall, his jumping is a big concern (see question 9).

6 Will the King George VI Chase have a big bearing?

Before answering that, here’s your starter for ten. Who was the last horse to win the Gold Cup having run in the King George earlier in the campaign?

Give yourself a pat on the back if you can recall that Imperial Commander was beaten out of sight at Kempton in 2009 before resurfacing at Cheltenham and beating Denman into second.

The last to do the double? That was Kauto Star the year before. Perhaps Silviniaco Conti (2013) and Cue Card (2016) would have emulated him had they not fallen in the latter stages. Bravemansgame gave it a good go in 2023, too, but had to settle for second after jumping the last upsides Galopin Des Champs.

Last month’s King George was an epic with The Jukebox Man digging deep to edge out Banbridge and Gaelic Warrior, with Jango Baieclose up in fourth.

It seems incomprehensible that the race, run in a record time, will not loom large come Gold Cup day. The Jukebox Man was preserving his unbeaten record over fences; while Gaelic Warrior and Jango Baie, both previous Arkle winners, stuck willingly to their tasks.

Banbridge? He blew out in last year’s Gold Cup and Joseph O’Brien says he will not be going back, but he has been entered, so the door has been left open.

Choosing between the King George protagonists is not easy. They were separated by inches and each have positive profiles. The bookmakers agree, making The Jukebox Man and Jango Baie 8-1, with Gaelic Warrior 10-1. Banbridge is 50-1 after being well beaten last year, but only because O’Brien has ruled him out.

7 Does Grey Dawning have the staying power and class?

Probably, for part one of that question. Yes, for part two.

His Turners Novices’ Chase win in 2023 looks even better in hindsight, as Djelo and Iroko were both well beaten, but last season just didn’t go to script after he had that gruelling comeback run on bottomless ground in the Betfair Chase and was then asked to tackle the King George on a track that did not suit a month later.

Nevertheless, he still returned to win easily at Kelso before bustling up Gaelic Warrior at Aintree in April, despite lacking his usual zip. That effort also reads better than it did at the time.

The reset button has been hit and, on better ground, he toyed with the opposition on his return in the Betfair Chase in late November. It was a race that lacked depth, especially with Haitii Couleurs having an off day, but it was exhibition stuff with the now nine-year-old barely leaving the bridle.

I’d imagine it has crossed Dan Skelton’s mind to sit on his hands until March, but he seems intent on running him in the Cotswold Chase on Trials Day at Cheltenham later this month provided the ground is not too deep.

That race has not been a good Gold Cup pointer – Looks Like Trouble was the last to do the double in 2000 – but 2020 winner Santini was subsequently beaten a neck in the big one, while 2023 victor Ahoy Senor was leading the Gold Cup field and still going strongly when falling six from home.

The Gold Cup trip will be a question mark for a horse who travels so strongly, but there’s plenty of stamina in his pedigree and he’s flashed staying power on several occasions, not least last time when he seemed to have loads left in the locker.

Skelton has not entered his thriving mare, Panic Attack, so all his eggs are in the one basket. Grey Dawning is a general 12-1.

8 Who will Sean Bowen be riding?

Bowen celebrates Irish Grand National glory

It will be a surprise if the champion jockey is not on Haiti Coleurs (14-1), although his principal employer, Olly Murphy, has thrown a spanner in the works by entering Resplendent Grey (100-1).

You would imagine the latter, a likely runner in the William Hill Half A Mill Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick on Saturday, will stick with the handicap route, leaving Bowen free to continue his association with a horse who looks like he could gallop all day.

Haiti Couleurs has improved in big chunks since the spring of last year, winning the National Hunt Chase (off a mark of 135), the Irish Grand National (141) and, on his latest start, the Welsh Grand National (154).

His new rating of 159 still leaves him needing to find about a stone of improvement to trouble the best around, but who is to say he has reached his ceiling? Rebecca Curtis seems keen on running him in the Cotswold Chase or Denman Chase in the next month.

Haiti Couleurs disappointed the one time he dipped his toe into Grade One waters, in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November, but he clearly was not right that day and has since resumed his progress.

One thing for certain is that if he’s in contention over the final fence, then the unstoppable Bowen is likely to do the rest. He’s ridden in the race just once before, when fourth on Noble Yeats in 2023.

RaceiQ data is free within our results section

9 What does the RaceiQ data tell us?

Inothewayurthinkin (Jump Index of 7.7) jumped better than he has ever done in the Gold Cup last year but he’s still not the most reliable, losing 11.49 lengths in the air when well held in the Savills Chase last time.

Galopin Des Champs (also 7.7) is assured these days but never going to jump his rivals into submission. In his three Gold Cups, he has jumped seventh best, fifth best, and last year, when only nine ran, seventh best.

The data makes it hard to warm to the chances of such as Affordale Fury and I Am Maximus.

The former has got an overall Jump Index score of just 6.6, losing ground getting from A to B in most of his races. Similarly, I Am Maximum (7.1) routinely surrenders lots of ground in the air, but he does have a huge amount of ability and stamina. The day he pings every fence, the others are likely to be left gasping.

By contrast, the principals in the King George - The Jukebox Man (8.1), Banbridge (8.3), Gaelic Warrior (8.0) and Jango Baie (8.0) - are all slick jumpers.

The Jukebox Man has gained ground with his leaping in all four of his races over fences, while Gaelic Warrior is capable of the outlandish, swiping almost 23 lengths when landing the John Durkan in November.

Keep in mind, too, that Grey Dawning got a Jump Index score of 9 out of 10 when winning the Turners’ at Cheltenham two years ago. He gained 12 lengths in the air that day.

Will we be seeing something like this at the end of the Gold Cup? (focusonracing.com)

10 And, finally, who should I have an ante-post bet on?

The way that Grey Dawning laughed at his rivals in the Betfair Chase was seductive. He’s got the necessary blend of speed and stamina, seems versatile regards the ground and is a previous Festival winner. The Cotswold Chase seems to be on his agenda provided underfoot conditions are suitable, and that seems a decent fit. He’s 12-1, but I can see him shortening up over the weeks ahead.

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