Cheltenham Festival: how solid are the hot favourites?

The Cheltenham Festival may still be eight weeks away, but there are already six short-priced favourites who will play pivotal roles in the annual battle between punters and bookmakers. 

Four of them – El Fabiolo, Gaelic Warrior, Galopin Des Champs and Dinoblue - are trained by Willie Mullins, and there is a fifth from Irish shores in the shape of Marine Nationale. However, many will view the biggest banker of them all as the unbeaten Constitution Hill, who is long odds-on to retain his Unibet Champion Hurdle crown. 

How solid are those chalked up at 6/4 or shorter, and what does history tell us about their prospects of living up to their top billing? Here’s a closer look. 

Race: Arkle Challenge Trophy. Best Odds: 4/5. 

Barry Connell’s exceptional seven-year-old was a brilliant winner of the Supreme Novice Hurdle last year and looked a natural when winning easily on his chasing debut at Leopardstown over Christmas. His jumping was a joy that day, and he beat inferior rivals with any amount in hand. 

He’s inked in for next month’s Irish Arkle, a race that Un De Sceaux (2015), Douvan (2016), Footpad (2018) and El Fabiolo (2023) won en route to success at Cheltenham in recent years. 

It will be a surprise if Marine National does not cement his claims at Leopardstown, and the layers may be already fearing the worst as seven of the past nine editions of the Arkle have been won by the favourite, with five of them being odds-on. There were 24 entries revealed for the race on Tuesday, with only seven trained in Britain. 

Chinks of light for those opposing Marine Nationale is that he was equipped with a first-time tongue tie for his somewhat belated return, and that he will line up at Cheltenham having had a maximum of five runs over hurdles/fences (assuming he runs at the Dublin Racing Festival and then pauses). The last to win the Arkle with so little experience was Western Warhorse, the shock 33/1 winner a decade ago. 

Race: Unibet Champion Hurdle. Best Odds: 1/3. 

The dirty scope that has ruled Constitution Hill out of running at Cheltenham on Saturday week should serve as a reminder that it’s one thing being a hot favourite for a Festival race, but that first you have got to get there. 

The next 56 days will inevitably include news of high-profile horses being ruled out out of the meeting because of untimely setbacks. 

It’s doubtful Nicky Henderson will be too concerned about his star performer being an absentee on Trials Day, but it means last year’s scintillating winner will have had just one run this season before the defence of his title, when waltzing home in last month’s Christmas Hurdle. 

His form is on a different level to that of his rivals, with the prolific State Man being among those that he swept aside by nine lengths and upwards 12 months ago, when he became the fourth successive favourite to oblige in the race. 

The year before that, of course, he had rocketed to a 22-length victory in the Supreme Novice Hurdle. 

Perhaps the biggest danger to him losing his crown is not the opposition, but the eight flights of hurdles that must be negotiated. 

Constitution Hill jumps with brio, sometimes standing off a little further than is good for those of a nervous disposition. Why nudge and nurdle your way over, when you can let rip and take another length out of the opposition, seems to be his way of thinking. 

His leap at the last 12 months ago made us all hold our breath, and sometimes the best around seem to thrive on testing the laws of probability (which helps make them so good in the first instance). 

Who can forget Annie Power’s fall at the final flight in the 2015 Mares’ Hurdle, wth victory at her mercy, or Benie Des Dieux doing the same in 2019? Buveur D’Air also hit the deck that afternoon, when seeking a third successive Champion Hurdle. 

But barring illness, misfortune or being overly fresh, Constitution Hill is going to win. Isn’t he? 

Race: Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. Best Odds: 1/1. 

The Champion Chase taunted and teased Willie Mullins for a long while, never more so than in 2015 when many thought that all Douvan had to do was turn up to take the spoils. 

However, an early blunder took its toll and the 2/9 favourite trailed home hurt and well beaten. He spent the next year on the sidelines and was never the same again. 

It took until 2022 for Mulllins to gain redemption, via Energumene, and that horse retained his crown a year later. Like London buses, one Champion Chase trophy finally arrived at Closutton, and then another. 

Injury means Energumene is not going to emulate Badsworth Boy by winning three on the bounce on March 13 but Mullins has a ready-made successor in El Fabiolo, who is unbeaten in five starts over fences despite a tendency to make mistakes. How good will he be if he ever puts in a clear round? 

He’s such a powerful individual that errors don’t seem to halt any of his momentum, including when he thumped Jonbon (Douvan’s little brother, no less) in the Arkle last year. El Fabiolo fluffed the first and final fences, yet was still much the best. 

He followed up at Punchestown and picked up from where he left off with a decisive success in the Hilly Way at Cork, when conceding lumps of weight to Fil Dor and Maskada, the latter being last year’s Grand Annual heroine. 

One day you get the sense that El Fabiolo will push his luck a little too far in terms of his disrespect to obstacles, although he’s never failed to get from A to B, and he’s clearly got a mighty engine when it comes to keeping the revs up. 

His third tussle with Jonbon at Ascot on Saturday – the pair had a cracking duel over hurdles at Aintree as novices, when Jonbon prevailed – promises to be a cracker, although the cold snap is threatening to scupper it. I fancy El Fabiolo has that something extra in his locker. 

Race: Turners Novices’ Chase. Best Odds: 11/8. 

Gaelic Warrior is yet another Willie Mullins-trained horse blessed with great athleticism and ability. He’s had eight races for the multiple Irish champion, winning six of them by an aggregate of 142 lengths. However, his other two appearance have been when beaten into second at the Festival. 

Perhaps that’s what you might expect of a horse who has a natural affinity to hang and jump to his right. These are unhealthy habits if you want to be winning around Cheltenham’s left-handed turns. 

The ground he sacrificed in the Boodles in 2022 undoubtedly led to him being beaten a short head, off what was a gift of a handicap mark (129). Mullins deliberately did not run his French recruit in the build-up to Cheltenham that season, for fear of showing the handicapper his hand. It was a good plan, but Gaelic Warrior, sent off the well-backed 13/8 favourite, wasn’t in the What’s App group and ended up handicapping himself. 

Last year, he again wanted to go in the opposite direction, although even if he’d kept straight, he probably would not have been able to cope with the impressive Impaire Et Passe. 

So why is Gaelic Warrior a short price to make it third time lucky? If you require an answer, watch his first two runs over fences at Punchestown and Limerick. They have been exhibitions, suggesting he can indulge himself in heading to his right and still have enough in reserve to win the Turners, much like Yorkhill before him in 2017. 

His previous defeat at Cheltenham have been on the Old Course, too, which is sharper in nature than the New Course, which he will encounter this time, assuming he runs in this race and not the Arkle or Brown Advisory (he’s entered in all three). That should mean his right-handed ways carry a lesser penalty. 

Race: Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup. Best Odds: 6/5. 

Any notion that Galopin Des Champs’ triumph in last season’s Gold Cup may have blunted some of brilliance was surely dispelled by his stunning 23-length success in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Allowed to gallop closer to the pace than in the past, he relished his more prominent role and pummelled his opponents from the turn into the straight. It was a case of “the champ(s) is back, all hail the champ(s)”. 

In a flash, that performance erased the memory of his successive defeats at Punchestown that came seven months apart. I was among those who wondered whether he’d left a bit of his spirit in the Cotswolds, in March, but here was spectacular evidence to the contrary. 

The young pretender, Gerri Colombe, was put firmly in his place and it’s not easy to see how he might bridge the gap. Some have since suggested he perhaps wasn’t at his best, but if the Savills had been a boxing match then towels would have littered the turf long before Galopin Des Champs powered over the finishing line. 

In many ways, it was a more complete performance than at Cheltenham, and one which suggests that the 2024 model, which, after all, is only eight years of age, is going to be even more formidable than the one who ultimately prevailed in convincing style in 2023, when Bravemansgame gave it his very best but was swatted aside. Hewick and Royale Pagaille were others among the support cast that day, and they’ve done their bit for the form by, respectively, landing the King George and Betfair Chase this season. 

Fastorslow has won his past two encounters with Galopin Des Champs, but he surely didn’t beat the version of him we saw in March or last month. An on-his-best-behaviour Shishkin would provide a new challenge, while Gentlemansgame and L’Homme Presse still have untapped potential, but mastering a 180-rated rival who is unlucky not to be chasing a fourth successive win at the Festival looks a thankless task, for all that Best Mate and Al Boum Photo have been the only back-to-back Gold Cup winners since 1972. 

Next month’s Irish Gold Cup would look something of a formality for Galopin Des Champs, and it will be a pity if his connections swerve it, not least because another dominant performance would surely convince some to divert to the Ryanair Chase. 

Race: Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase. Best Odds: 6/4 

Will it be third time lucky for Dinoblue and her supporters at this year’s Festival? She trailed home among the also-rans in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle two years ago, when 11/8 favourite, and found one too good in the Grand Annual last year, when the 7/2 market leader. 

Since the latter defeat, when unable to exploit a mark of 140, Dinoblue has gone from strength to strength, reeling off four successive wins in races that have got increasingly deeper.  After her latest success, in the Grade One Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase at Leopardstown last month, her rating has ballooned to 159, not that it will be of any consolation to those who put two and two together last March. 

That mark suggests Dinoblue is already well up to the standard required to win the Mares’ Chase. The first three editions of the race have not been contested by a horse rated higher than 156, with the three winners being rated 150, 155 and 151 beforehand. 

Dinoblue is untested much beyond 2m and is entered in the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase, but it seems the Mares’ Chase, over 2m 4f, is her target, with owner JP McManus already having Jonbon for that contest. 

McManus has seen his silks carried to victory in the past two editions of the Mares’ Chase, via Elimay and Impervious, and Elimay was also runner-up for him in 2021. 

In terms of stamina, Dinoblue galloped on stoutly at Leopardstown, hinting an extra half-mile may be within her reach. Her smart half-sister, Blue Sari, was proven over the trip (and even tried over 3m), while Grand National runner-up Royal Auclair is also in her pedigree.