Cheltenham Festival: Will the hot favourites be bankers or blowouts?

By Danny Archer

Sporting Life Arkle Novices’ Chase (2.10 Tue). Odds: 7-4

Edwardstone bids to provide Alan King with a first victory at the Festival since Uxizandre in 2015. Brought down at Warwick on his chasing debut, the eight-year-old has not looked back, winning his next four starts, including the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown.

He impressed when landing the Kingmaker at Warwick last time out and the drying ground is in his favour, but Irish challengers Blue Lord and Riviere D’etel make more appeal. The pair enjoyed a brilliant tussle in the Irish Arkle and I fancy one, or both, to master Edwardstone.

Verdict: Blowout

Unibet Champion Hurdle (3.30 Tues) Odds: 1-2

Undoubtedly one of the stars of the meeting. Unbeaten in 14 starts under Rules, she is a dual winner at the Cheltenham Festival and was brilliant when landing the Champion Hurdle 12 months ago. A routine winner in both the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle and the Irish Champion Hurdle this term, it is difficult to oppose the eight-year-old. With Henry De Bromhead’s string also hitting form at the right time, she should have too much class for Appreciate It, making his seasonal debut, and the progressive Teahupoo.

Verdict: Banker

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (2.10 Wed) Odds: Evens

With Galopin Des Champs taking on Bob Olinger, the path has arguably been left clear for Bravemansgame to record a second Grade One win over fences. Paul Nicholls may lack the strength in depth of years gone by, but Bravemansgame is a top-class prospect who has looked an absolute natural over fences. He beat Ahoy Senor with the minimum of fuss in the Kauto Star at Kempton and was impressive at Newbury in handicap company last time out when defying a lofty mark of 158. Concerns have been raised about his suitability for Cheltenham, but he ran well in last year’s Ballymore (he’s clearly better over fences) and I think the doubters are clutching at straws.

Verdict: Banker

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30 Wed) Odds: 4-6

Heralded as the British banker. Nicky Henderson has previously won this with other short-priced favourites in Sprinter Sacre and Altior, and Shishkin fits the bill. Unbeaten in seven starts over fences, there was plenty to digest from his defeat of Energumene in the Clarence House Chase. His jumping lacked fluency throughout and he looked in trouble entering the home straight. However, his grit, determination and stamina won him the day as he stayed on relentlessly close home to prevail. Energumene and Chacun Pour Soi, who has been the subject of glowing reports of Willie Mullins in recent weeks, are serious players, but Shishkin is already a dual Festival winner, seems to relish the stiff test of stamina at Cheltenham, and may still improve further.

Verdict: Banker

Weatherbys Champion Bumper (5.30 Wed) Odds: 10-11

A son of six-time Festival heroine Quevega, the five-year-old has looked a potential superstar in the making with emphatic victories at Leopardstown. However, it is worth noting that Willie Mullins’ three previous winners of the bumper that Facile Vega won at the Dublin Racing Festival have failed to go on to record victory in this event. Team Cloustton have an embarrassment of riches in this division with Facile Vega’s likely rider, Patrick Mullins, very sweet on the chances of both Redemption Day and St James’s Gate. Throw in the presence of Gordon Elliott’s exciting American Mike and this looks a contest with plenty of strength in depth.

Verdict: Blowout

Turners Novices’ Chase (1.30 Thurs) Odds: 4-5

Produced one of the stand-out performances at last year’s meeting when landing the Ballymore. He is unbeaten in two starts over fences this term but will he prove as good in this sphere? He was far from foot perfect on his chasing debut at Gowran Park, and while he produced a more assured display at Punchestown last time, he does lack slickness over the larger obstacles. Conversely, his market rival Galopin Des Champs has looked a natural over fences, again jumping exuberantly at Leopardstown last time. Given his more assured jumping, I would rather be in the Galopin Des Champs camp.

Verdict: Blowout

Ryanair Chase (2.50 Thurs) Odds: 4-7

Trainer Willie Mullins has described Allaho as his banker of the meeting and who can blame him? He was a stunning 22-length winner last year – running his rivals into submission from the front – and has enjoyed a smooth preparation for this repeat assignment. On his latest start, he dished out a 12-length beating of subsequent Ascot Chase hero Fakir D’oudairies at Thurles. With possible rivals such as Envoi Allen and Conflated possibly heading instead for the Champion Chase and Gold Cup respectively, he looks very tough to oppose and could turn out to be the banker of the entire meeting.

Verdict: Banker