Cheltenham Festival tips: Dave Nevison picks for Thursday

The only concern I have about Henri The Second - who I am convinced is a well-handicapped runner - is that his two recent strong performances have come in bottomless ground at Sandown Park, conditions which will be quite different to Thursday afternoon. However, he was so impressive on his penultimate start - and came up against a rapidly improving type in Red Dirt Road last time - that I am happy to take a very positive view. I am sure Paul Nicholls would have had this one down as better than a handicapper a couple of years ago, but injury has limited his recent appearances and this looks the perfect race for him to repeat last year’s win for the yard.

Doddiethegreat would have upset a few people had he won at a big price at Haydock Park last time as plenty of us have followed him over various cliffs at much shorter odds. He was fancied for the Coral Cup at the Festival last year but his race effectively ended with a mistake at the second (in addition to travelling on the unfavoured side throughout). Brian Hughes was on board last time and it is interesting he keeps the ride, while Doddiethegreat gets a first-time tongue strap here as well as the cheekpieces that brought about a revival on his last run. Now a nine-year-old, he started his career with a string of wins and has undoubtedly lost his way to some extent, but Haydock was a clear sign that he does still have a decent handicap in him.

This handicap is ridiculously tight and looking for a source of improvement is my angle into the race. Trainer Alan King has declared this eight-year-old with cheekpieces for the first time which might just sharpen him up a little, and that may be all he needs alongside the 6lb he is better off now with likely favourite Jagwar, who won the race he contested last time at Cheltenham. Massacio has shown good form on fast ground as well as soft, so conditions should be immaterial and it will be a surprise if he doesn’t run another strong race. After a brief quiet spell King’s horses seem to have hit top form once more, though Masaccio has been a model of consistency pretty much throughout his career. 

After finishing runner-up on all three times he has run at Cheltenham, I am happy to side with this ultra consistent horse to land his first course win at the Festival. Midnight Our Fred goes well on decent ground, which is going to help him against several rivals who are proven in much softer conditions. He has also been kept off the course since Christmas but a look through his form reveals that he goes very well fresh, while he showed at the April meeting last year that this extended trip suits him very well even though he is likely to be in the vanguard throughout. Noel McParlan is a very decent pilot in this sort of race.