Cheltenham Festival day two: stats and trends for each race

The New Lion is disputing favouritism but the record of Challow Hurdle winners in this race stands at zero from 20, with Stage Star Bravemansgame and Hermes Allen being the past three to come up short. That trio were all trained by Paul Nicholls, while Dan Skelton, the trainer of The New Lion, was formerly an assistant for him. The last Challow winner to win at the Festival in the same season was Wichita Lineman, who went on to win the Albert Bartlett in 2007. Irish-trained runners finished 1-2-3-4-5 last year, and 1-2-3-4 12 months before, plus 1-2 in the three years before that. The only British-trained winner in the past decade has been Willoughby Court, who led home a 1-2-3-4 for the home team in 2017. 

Ireland will have a "walkover" here with no British-trained runners. It must be the first time the home team have been unrepresented (even more remarkable given the Turners has been scrapped). It was only in 2019, that they had ten challengers. Dancing City is the only runner in the line-up who has yet to be beaten over fences. Thiscentury there have been only five Brown Advisory victors to return to the winner’s enclosure with an unblemished record over the larger obstacles – Denman, Don Poli, Monkfish, L’Homme Presse and The Real Whacker. Denman would also remain unbeaten the next season, with the highlight being his defeat of Kauto Star the 2008 Gold Cup. The last horse to complete the Brown Advisory-Gold Cup double was Bobs Worth in 2013. 

Novices have a poor record but lightly raced, second-season hurdlers tend to thrive. Since 2000, only six winners have run more than ten times over hurdles.  

No fewer than 15 of the 19 winners had run at the track earlier in the season. Galvin would be an exception if successful this year, but he has plenty of previous experience of the course. In addition, most cross-country contenders school over the fences beforehand with Cheltenham’s blessing. The race was first run in 2005, with 32 obstacles having to be negotiated. There have been 281 runners but only seven runners have ever fallen, including two in the first running. All 16 runners completed in 2010. 

Only one horse older than 10 (Moscow Flyer) has won since 1978. That does not augur well for two-time winner Energumene. In the past 33 years, ten winners had landed the Arkle Chase 12 months earlier. They have been: Remittance Man (won the Champion Chase in 1992), Klairon Davis (1996), Moscow Flyer (2003), Azertyuiop (2004), Voy Por Ustedes (2007), Sizing Europe (2011), Sprinter Sacre (2013), Altior (2018) and Put The Kettle On (2021). The SPs have included 10-1, 9-1 and 17-2, so it’s been a profitable route to follow, but Gaelic Warrior (not running) will not be improving the record. Found A Fifty does line up and he clocked the fastest time of all the runners at the Festival last year, hitting 36.84mph when runner-up in the Arkle.

Eleven of the past 14 winners have had an official rating of between 138 and 147. Global Citizen was a rare older horse to prevail in 2022 - only the third winner since 1998 to be ten or older – but was not typical of his age group, given he was having only his sixth start over fences. Within the 138-147 group this time there are six horses, including last year's winner Unexpected Party.

Willie Mullins has had the winner 13 times since it was first run in 1992 – plus plenty of near-misses – and rode his 1996 conqueror, Wither Or Which, himself. However, punters looking to cash in on his dominance should note the market often gets his runners wrong. Facile Vega and Jasmin De Vaux have been recent “first strings” to deliver but five of his previous six winners were returned at 12-1 (Cousin Vinny), 16-1 (Champagne Fever), 25-1 (Briar Hill), 25-1 (Relegate) and 11-1 (Ferny Hollow). The shortest-priced Mullins runners in those races finished sixth, third, eighth, fifth and second. So, don’t rely on the market telling you accurately what the best of the Mullins brigade might be.