Will Justify seal Triple Crown? Read Rachel Candelora's special report

Will Justify seal Triple Crown? Read Rachel Candelora's special report

By Rachel Candelora
Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023
Justify is led down the shed row at Belmont Park ahead of his bid for the Triple Crown on Saturday. (Racingfotos)
“Change your colours, change your luck,” is one of the oldest sayings in racing and Justify will have to overcome that jinx along with nine rivals in the 150th running of the Belmont Stakes on Saturday.
If he does so he will cement himself in the pantheon of Triple Crown champions by augmenting his wins in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.
His Kentucky Derby and Preakness victories both came while wearing the famous Winstar silks, which showed up more vividly in his two races in the rain, fog and slop when his white silks and white blaze were mud free.
This time around, due to partnership contracts, Justify will be wearing the red and yellow of the China Horse Club - colours he has sported to victory before in his second career start.
Justify has been overcoming setbacks and curses, however, since before he set foot on a racecourse. He had a slight tendon issue as a yearling, pulled muscle as a juvenile, did not race until February of this year, defeated 19 rivals and “The Curse of Apollo” in the Kentucky Derby, got into a dog fight in the Preakness and yet he still prevailed, and fittingly for this horse if he wins the Belmont he will become the 13th Triple Crown winner.
American Pharoah, who was also trained by Bob Baffert, stopped the 37-year drought of Triple Crown winners in 2015, and the one thing that history has taught us is that Triple Crown winners come in groups: Gallant Fox, Omaha, War Admiral all won in the 1930’s, Whirlaway, Count Fleet, Assault, and Citation won in the 1940’s, and the most famous trio of Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed all won in the 1970s. It is time for another one, clearly. Is Justify that one? Probably.
Justify roars down the stretch to win the Kentucky Derby last month and bids to become the 13th Triple Crown winner at Belmont Park on Saturday. (Racingfotos)
There are some very strong challengers in the line-up. The first challengers to look at are those who ran in the Kentucky Derby and then skipped the Preakness to come to the Belmont fresh. It is a classic method of dethroning a possible champion as four Belmont winners in the last six years all shared this profile.
This year there are four Derby participants who are fresh and ready for another crack at Justify: Hofburg, Vino Rosso, Noble Indy and Free Drop Billy.
Hofburg has very much been the hype horse (outside of Justify) in the build-up to the Belmont after his troubled seventh-placed effort in the slop at Churchill Downs.
This Juddmonte Farm’s homebred is bred to love the Belmont Stakes as his sire, Tapit, has sired the winner of this race in three of the last four renewals and his dam-sire, Touch Gold, won the 1997 Belmont Stakes, stopping the Triple Crown run of Silver Charm.
He has been training very well in he build up and trainer Bill Mott is understandably excited about his colt’s chance, and remember 15 years ago the Juddmonte colours played spoiler when Empire Maker won the 2003 Belmont stopping Funny Cide’s Triple Crown run.
I thought Vino Rosso would be a perfect Belmont Stakes horse before his ninth-placed effort in the Derby.
Vino Rosso, who grew up with Justify in the same paddock at breeder John Gunther’s Glenwood Farm, has a long stride and appears to want to gallop all day and trainer Todd Pletcher has won this Classic three times, including last year with Tapwrit.
Bob Baffert is seeking this third win in the Belmont Stakes after American Phaoroah and Point Given in 2001. (DRC)
He is a son of Curlin, who was just beaten by a nose in the 2007 Belmont by the filly Rags To Riches, also trained by Pletcher. Vino Rosso has been stabled at Belmont since the Derby and has been training over the track so, unlike Justify, he has shown that he can handle “Big Sandy.”
Outside of American Pharoah, the last time a Preakness participant went on to win the Belmont was back in 2005, when Afleet Alex won at Pimlico before winning a drama-filled Belmont Stakes.
This year the second and third in the Preakness are back to take another crack at Justify. Bravazo, second at Pimlico, after running sixth in the Kentucky Derby, is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who has saddled the winner four times including in three consecutive years with Tabasco Cat, Thunder Gulch, and Editor’s Note in 1994-1996. They all ran in the Preakness before winning the Belmont. Tenfold, a fast finishing third in the Preakness, is trained by Steve Asmussen, who won the race in 2016 with Creator and is bred to love the distance being by Curlin out of a Tapit mare.
Justify, who will once again be ridden by Mike Smith, will be facing three “new shooters” in the Belmont (have not run in either of the previous Classics) and Blended Citizen and Gronkowski are of the most interest.
Just a season after world champion Arrogate, Mike Smith has found another potential superstar to ride (Eclipse Sportswire)
Blended Citizen is coming off a win in the Group Three Peter Pan over nine furlongs at Belmont Park, and is considered by most to be the main Belmont trial that is not a Classic. In fact the last horse to win the Belmont without running in a previous Classic was Tonalist in 2014, who won the Peter Pan en route to Classic success.
Gronkowski was unable to run in the Kentucky Derby due to spiking a fever and being unable to travel when with Jeremy Noseda but he has been impressing in the morning since moving to the Chad Brown barn.
What he has going for him is that he has been working over the Belmont surface and seems to be handling it, however on Saturday he will facing serious rivals over a half a mile further than he has ever run before. Brown thinks he is going to be a very good horse in the future, but this might be just too soon.
The obvious question is will Justify win the Belmont Stakes?
His Kentucky Derby victory was dominant. His Preakness success was gritty and he will need everything in his considerable armoury to succeed in the ‘Test Of Champions.’
With my heart, and my head, I think the answer is a resounding ‘yes’.
Will I be backing Justify at a generally available Evens? No. The way I will play the race is to have each-way bets on Vino Rosso and Hofburg and hope that I only get to cash the place terms.
But regardless of who I bet on there is only horse that I will be screaming down the stretch late Saturday night. You can’t deny, Justify.
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